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Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for the Week 14 Main Slate and the top players to build game stacks around.
#Rams 🐏Stafford + Nacua + Kupp + Kincaid and/or Shakir / Cooper / Cook
This has the highest Combined Net Drive Success Rate (CNDSR) for the whole week at .735. I have Stafford list over Allen here but you could certainly flip this to a Bills-centric game stack, too. Stafford's Avg FP in games with both Nacua & Kupp healthy is 19.82. BUF's Def Passing FP allowed when not counting the Wk12 snow game is 13.6. Factoring all this, the Net QB FP allowed is 15.8 for Stafford.
This game is going to push the Rams into assertive mode on offense for the early portions of the game and aggressive mode if trailing. Puka and Kupp have a combined Target Per Route Run rate of 64%. The next closest duo is Shakir and Kincaid at 51%, who are also in play here. There are several pieces to work with in this game, which has the highest point total on the slate.
#AZCardinals 🐦 Kyler (or Geno) + McBride + Metcalf and/or JSN
This game has the 2nd highest CNDSR and 3rd narrowest DSR Differential for the week. These teams just played each other 2 weeks ago in Seattle, but this time will be controlled environment with the division title on the line. If Seattle is able to push this game to get Arizona passing a bit more than their -1.72 PROE we could see more than just Kyler and McBride putting up solid numbers on their side putting MHJ, Conner, and Michael Wilson in play. Any of the main guys for Seattle work for bring-backs. Metcalf and JSN are nearly the same price on DK and Walker is a few hundred more.
#GoBucs 🏴☠️ Mayfield (or AOC) + Evans and/or Otton + Bowers + (Meyers or Abdullah)
This game has the #5 CNDSR of the week and #3 for the Main Slate. The Raiders defense has the highest PROE against because they are better at stopping the run and teams have success passing against them. Mike Evans says he's "feeling close" to 100% which means we might start seeing some moon balls floating his way as soon as this week. Otton also has a solid matchup in this game where LV allows 16.4 FP to TES (2nd most) and 21.7 FP to All Slot players (4th most). Injuries and usage stats point us squarely at Bowers and Meyers for top bring-backs, but the Bucs haven't seen a RB they wanted to cover all year in the passing game, which is primarily Abdullah's role and puts him in play.
Honorable Mention:
#SKOL Darnold + Jefferson + (Addison) + London
This is the next game in the CNDSR order for the week and features intriguing matchups and a QB revenge game. I prefer Darnold here because he has a better arsenal and scrambles a bit, but I am not counting out Cousins putting up a good game here. Jefferson hasn't had a 30 point game yet this year and has gone 4 straight under 20 DK points. Regression is in his favor. Addison has worked his role into dynamic (highs & lows) production, and does have a 30 point game on the year. He is not essential, but if you're betting on this game environment JJ + JA have a 41% TPRR share combined. Hockenson is actually the #2 "receiver" in terms of targets per route run, but he's running into a defense that has been good at slowing down TEs since they acquired Jessie Bates in the offseason. The chart here shows we want the ATL Slot WR, but ATL runs all of their WRs through slot fairly equally, so it's up to you which WR you prefer, but note London has a 6% edge over Mooney in TPRR and a 12.5% edge over McCloud.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for the Week 11 Main Slate and the top players to build game stacks around.
#BillsMafia Allen + Shakir + Kincaid/Knox/Samuel + Kelce + Hopkins/Hunt
These two teams combine to have the top Combined Net Drive Success Rates (CNDSR). Bills rank 6th in Net PROE with the #3 Net EPA/Pass. KC Ranks 7th in Net PROE with the #2 CPOE. Both teams also rank high in EPA/Run, Bills 5th and KC 6th. Defensively, the Bills allow 3.5 Explosive Runs per game (Runs > 10 yards), which is 2nd highest on the slate.
There are a lot of pieces to work with in this game. As far as the matchup charts in #TheWorbook show, the top players from this game could be Allen, Shakir, Hunt, and both TE spots. Kincaid may miss this game which opens up some value at TE with Knox. DeAndre Hopkins (way too cheap) and Curtis Samuel (if Kincaid is out) also open up value to spend elsewhere.
#HereWeGo Russ + Pickens + Freiermuth + Andrews and/or Henry
This game has the 2nd highest CNDSR and 3rd narrowest Net DSR Differential (potential for close/back-and-forth game). BAL defense funnels their opponents into the highest PROE in the league and the Steelers offense has the #3 Net CPOE spot for the slate. Both team rank high in Net EPA/Pass (BAL #2, PIT #4) while both defenses are extremely tough against the run, EPA/Run has BAL #2 toughest and PIT #3 toughest. The Ravens offense has the most Explosive Pass Plays (Passes > 15 yards) on the slate with 5.8 average per game. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed an absurd 7.3 Explosive Passes per game.
You can use either QB in this game, but Russ has the slight edge for being at home and because of the pass rate and explosive play potential. However, he may be rostered at a high rate making Lamar a nice pivot. Pickens will also draw a lot of attention but if those explosive plays hit, it'll likely be through him (or maybe Calvin Austin if you want a pivot or cheap 2nd WR to stack). Freiermuth also benefits by facing a defense allowing the 2nd most yards per game to TEs (68.0/g) and the 4th most yards per game to any receiver type that lines up in the Slot (86.4/g). The Ravens bring-back in the best spot is the TE position, which will be all Mark Andrews (and Kolar) if Likely can't go. Derrick Henry faces a challenging defense but will likely not see high ownership because of it and can still end up with 2 TDs.
#TakeFlight Rodgers (or Richardson) + Wilson + Adams + Taylor
This one barely clears a CNDSR of .700but there are some holes in game stacking the other two games ahead of this on in CNDSR (JAX@DET and SEA@ SF). I could point out a big hole in this one, too - both teams have defenses that are easier to run on that throw, and there are no other game environment stats that excite. However, this one comes in on vibes.
Both QBs have faced recent turmoil and are in need to provide a spark for their offenses. Rodgers will do it through the air and Richardson has a path for a nice rushing day along with some passing opportunities. The Jets defense just gave up a 93% DSR to Arizona, where Kyler ran for 21 yards and 2 TDs. Prior to this, the Jets allowed Stroud 59 yards rushing, and Maye had 57. Richardson is cheap for a scrambling QB on this slate. Meanwhile, the Colts defense has allowed at least 280 passing yards in each of the last 3 games and have allowed three 300 yard games this year.
Rodgers has logical stacking partners with Wilson and Adams, while Richardson may work best with Taylor in case this game stays mostly on the ground for the Colts, which is usually the path of lease resistance against the Jets defense. Colts WR is a crapshoot with Richardson at QB but Alec Pierce's 22.5 aDOT and 22.4 YPR is fun.
Honorable Mention:
#Patriots Maye + Henry + Boutte + Nacua/Kupp + (Kyren)
#BroncosCountry Nix + Sutton + (Vele) + Bijan + (Pitts)
There were two games I want to put here because they are very similar. In both of the games I like for this spot there are young, mobile QBs with cheap receiving options with expensive bring-backs. Both games are right next to each other in CNDSR. DEN has the better metrics for PROE & CPOE. Both games have several ways to mix up the game stacks.
For NE, Hunter Henry has the #5 TE matchup of the slate, and Boutte is a cheap option out wide, where LAR has allowed more points from WRs (compared to from the slot). The Rams have the #1 Outside WR matchup of the slate, but it mainly comes from them also being the best team on the slate at scoring Outside WR points. The Patriots have allowed the 2nd most points to RBs on the ground on the slate making Kyren a solid play.
For DEN, Nix and Sutton are clicking and Vele did some damage on minimal targets last week (due to catching a TD). If last week's numbers hold up, then Vele is the #2 WR in Denver and also ran the most slot routes, which would keep him away from A.J. Terrell and in the softer area of ATL's coverage. Denver's secondary has been phenomenal at limiting opponent's WR fantasy points, and tends to funnel those point inside to RBs (Bijan) and TEs (Pitts).
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 10 and the top players to build game stacks around.
#FTTB Purdy + Kittle + 49er WR + Shepard + (White)
Top Combined Net DSR game for the main slate and 3rd closed Net DSR Differential. The Net Matchups Table in #TheWorkbook has minimal red and orange boxes. The Matchup Charts indicate there are several players in this game that are at the top of the slate for their matchup. Kittle has the #1 TE spot, Purdy is #2 for QB, Sterling Shepard is #1 for Slot WR, and TB RB (Rachaad White) is #2 for RB.
#Skol Darnold + Jefferson and/or Addison + Jones + a Jaguar receiver
This game doesn't net out with a high CNDSR and the Vikings are catching the Jaguars without several key offensive players. It is still possible that at least a WR and Aaron Jones can still hit, and if Darnold is on the other end of the TDs, he can produce as well. Brian Thomas should get a heavy target volume, making him the likely top piece from the Jags.
#BillsMafia Allen + Kincaid + Cook + Downs (or Pierce)
This game has the 3rd highest CNDSR and skews toward the Bills winning on the ground at and TE. Josh Downs is the most reliable Colts WRs to bring back but Alec Pierce is cheap and capable of explosive games. These teams allow the 3rd (IND) and 5th (BUF) highest explosive run plays per game, so Jonathan Taylor is also a strong play.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 9 and the top players to build game stacks around.
🤠Dak + Lamb + (Ferg/Tolbert) + Bijan + (London)
This is the top Combined Net Drive Success Rate (CNDSR) game of the main slate with a projected 72.8% of drives resulting in a new set of downs or a touchdown. This is how fantasy points get scored. For the main slate, DAL projects for the most pass attempts, has the #4 Net PROE matchup, and faces a defense allowing the highest CPOE and 4.8 explosive passes per game (#5). With the lack of a rushing attack, Dak should keep busy and Lamb is his top target. Adding Ferguson or Tolbert to the stack and bringing back Bijan and/or London creates the mega-stack.
🧀Love + Reed + (Doubs) + Gibbs/Monty + (LaPorta)
This game is only #6 for CNDSR but has a clear game stack available based on the Net Matchup Charts that makes it more interesting than a couple of the games ahead of it. A lot of this depends on the health signals we get from GB regarding Love leading up to kickoff, and even if Willis starts I may still be interested due to his scrambling ability and low cost on DK. Jayden Reed has the nuts Slot WRs matchup and I've been anxious to play him for a 3rd week in a row now. Surely this is his week? If Love plays, then adding Doubs is in play. The Packers defensive strength is taking away Outside WRs and the matchups indicate DET RBs and TEs are the way to go. Take your pick with who you like best from Gibbs/Monty/LaPorta.
🐯Burrow + Chase + Brown/(Burton) + Bowers
Like the DET/GB game this one doesn't stand out for having a high CNDSR but it has a Net DSR differential of 0, making it the most evenly matched game of the week. The Bengals are at home and their implied team total is 26, which is pretty good this week. With Higgins and Moss getting ruled out, the probability for Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown to hit increases. Jermaine Burton has received some positive messaging from Burrow about his ability to get open. Next step is Burrow trusting the throw. At $3100, I'll take the bait instead of waiting to see it. Behind "BAL TE", Bowers has the top individual TE matchup of the slate and is the top bring-back from the Raiders side. Meyers and Mattison are also in play.
Additional notes:
Philly is in a smash spot against the Jags defense but since their bye week they have played three straight games with PROEs of -10, -19, and -12. This could be the game environment to snap them out of that and one or more of their offensive weapons could go nuclear this week.
The Saints injuries condense their offense down to Kamara, Olave, and Taysom against the worst defense in the league. Not a bad idea to have at least one of those three sprinkled in your builds.
Bo Nix has the nuts QB matchup against a pass-funnel defense. At $5900 on DK, he's the lowest priced scrambling QB (unless Willis plays) and doesn't require a stacking partner.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 8 and the top players to build game stacks around.
🏴☠️ Baker + London/Bijan + Otton + Cheap Bucs WR
Top Combined Net Drive Success Rate (CNDSR) of the slate with a .744 and both teams net over .736 DSR individually. Tampa offense is #4 in PROE and the ATL defense is #2 in allowing CPOE. TB also nets out at #5 in EPA/Pass. Both of these defenses allow .730 (TB) and .740 (ATL) DSR. (.730 or more is what we want to target)
The loss of Godwin/Evans is going to hurt TB but this is a divisional fight with Tampa at home. Baker gets the lean over Cousins due to his scrambling. Otton saw heavy volume in the absence of the top 2 TB WRs, indicating Baker has the most trust throwing to him of the remaining options (and Otton didn't let him down, as he got drilled on almost every catch). We can add one of the cheap TB WRs to this stack along with Drake London and/or Bijan Robinson for bring-backs.
🦅Hurts + Barkley + (Calcterra/PHI WR) + Chase and/or Higgins
This is the #2 game in CNDSR this week with PHI netting out as the #2 Net DSR team and #1 in Net EPA/Run. Philly Off vs CIN Def also has the 2nd highest net play total. CIN offense has the #2 net PROE and #6 Net EPA/Pass. However, the PHI defense has the 3rd toughest CPOE.
Due to the rushing matchup, a combo of Hurts + Barkley could be all you need. Adding Calcaterra offers a cheap TE option if you're stacking this game up. Bringing back either or both of the top pass catchers from the Cincy side will complete the game stack.
🧀Love + Reed + Doubs/Wicks + Bigsby + (Engram)
The #4 CNDSR game for the main slate with GB getting to face the 2nd softest defense for allowing Drive Success, 3rd highest PROE allowed, THE highest CPOE allowed, and the 3rd most explosive passes (passes of 15+ yards).
Stacking Love with any two of his pass catchers makes a lot of sense. Reed has the 3rd highest Net Slot FP matchup (behind the TB & ATL Slot WRs) and has been quiet lately, perhaps he's "due". Doubs has run the most routes of any Packer WR over the last 2 weeks but Wicks earns a higher Target Per Route share. Tucker Kraft is an option as well. If I were an MME player I'd stack GB as many ways as possible. The bring backs point to "avoid Jaire" and attacking the middle of the field for the Jags offense. That's Bigsby at RB and Engram at TE.
Honorable Mention: Allen or Geno + Walker and/or Cook + Kincaid or Fant
This is a weird one because it doesn't involve any WRs (unless you want to). The strength of both of these defenses is covering the outsides/WRs. The best way to beat them is with the run game (vs SEA) or RB Receiving (vs BUF ). Both teams are also softer than average against All Slot and TEs in the receiving game lining this up for an unusual stacking combo that will be unique. Ken Walker is in a good spot against the BUF defense, as he's a yards creator and not a yards taker like Pollard. BUF defense has allowed 4 explosive runs per game, most in the league - and they have allowed 8 target per game (23% target rate) to RBs which are highest in the league for both stats.
This game environment features the #5 CNDSR for the main slate, the narrowest Net DSR Differential (evenly matched teams), SEA has the highest PROE of any offense, BUF sets up best to run the ball based on Net PROE and EPA/Run (#5 on main slate) and has the #3 Net EPA/Pass, both teams net in the top 8 for CPOE.
Note: I am guessing there will be a lot of people excited about the CHI @ WAS game, which is an exciting game for sure. The way these two teams play offense/defense would suggest stacking the Bears passing game against the WAS running game, with McLaurin always an option as well. This is the #2 CNDSR game of the week and 3rd narrowest DSR Differential. Both teams rank in the top 8 for Net DSR, top 4 for Net CPOE, and WAS has the #2 Net EPA/Run matchup
One of the ways you can use #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason is to build your own Over/Under lines and compare them to the betting market or DFS pricing for probabilities.
In the example below, I pulled the Net Fantasy Points from the FP tab where it averages out the FP between the Off/Def and provides a "Net" figure. Then I divided those points by the opportunities of Targets and RB Carries to get a point per Tar/Car for the Off & Def and averaged those against each other (this is on my TL).
Once I had that, I took the Net Pass Attempts and Net RB Carries from the Plays section of the Game Environment tab of The Workbook and multiplied the Targets by the Net Target percentages from the Tar tab to get an expected Volume figure which I multiplied by the Fantasy Points Per numbers I got from the previous exercise and got an over/under to work with across all the positions.
Here are the results of Plays x Volume x Fantasy Points per Tar/Car which is then sorted by the O/U of fantasy points it projects. You can do these exercises with any of the tabs in #TheWorkbook to build your own O/U and modify however you want. This is just a basic example.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 6 and the top players to build game stacks around.
🐈⬛Daniels + B-Rob + (McLaurin) + Diontae/Hubbard/(Coker)
This game has the the highest Combined net DSR of the slate (.751) and we have seen games that clear .750 explode this season. Neither of these defenses stop opponents from moving the ball. WAS has the top Net DSR for any team on the slate and the top Rushing matchup, pointing toward a combo play of Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson as a valid option. If you want to add a WAS WR, McLaurin is the top guy but he may not be asked to do much if Daniels and the RBs are cruising.
The CAR side has 2 strong plays with Diontae Johnson & Chuba Hubbard who are both in a position to produce. Then there's Jalen Coker who has a Top-4 Slot WR matchup and has run 57 routes and earned 7 targets over the last 2 weeks - which is only 12%, so not great. However, Coker is a salary saver ($3k on DraftKings) who could possibly 4x and help you get to an extra over-achiever in your build. He's had PPR scores of 10.8 and 6 so far.
🦁Goff/Darnold + Jefferson/St Brown + LaPorta + (Addison/Jones/Jamo)
This game has a lot of ways it could play out since both team boast a strong defense. The optimistic view is that both of these teams tend to funnel opponents into passing at a higher than expected rate. Both QBs have been highly efficient and they each have an elite WR to stack with an elite bring back (salary permitting). LaPorta is also interesting as he still hasn't broken out this year and MIN has been allowing fantasy points to TEs. Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and Jameson Williams are all viable options if you can't get to Jefferson or are MME'ing stacks of this game and want to put different pieces together.
🪽 Geno + Metcalf + JSN + Pitts/London/ATL RB
This game has the 3rd highest CNDSR for the slate and Seattle has #2 Net Pass Rate Over Expected matchup (behind MIN). The Falcons are doing a respectable job at containing RBs this year, especially in the receiving game, which indicates the Seahawks might have to pass quite a bit to keep up. Metcalf is the team's top target earner with JSN right behind him. JSN has the #2 Net Slot WR matchup this week (behind Reed).
The Falcons have been able to move the ball very well this year, especially at the end of games. The Seahawks have their top 2 outside CBs on the DNP list for Wed and Thu. If Woolen and/or Brown are out, it boosts London and the WRs chances of having a good game. If either or both play, it could funnel the passing game toward the TE & RB positions. SEA is also soft vs the run, so Bijan and cheap (on DK) Allgeier make for solid plays, too.
Honorable Mention: Mahomes/Purdy + Kittle + Aiyuk/Deebo + Kelce/JuJu
This game has the 3rd highest CNDSR and is a recurring grudge match between inter-conference rivals. SF has lost to the Chiefs in each of the last two years, including last year's super bowl. KC comes into this game with a full week of extra rest while SF has some additional rest coming off a TNF game. Only PHI/NYG has a narrower Net DSR Differential, which is a data point that could indicate a game will be back and forth. The stage is set for this game be very entertaining and it's one of only 3 afternoon games giving us options to swap off or to CAR/WAS if needed.
Either QB is in play, however Purdy has more of his high-end weapons available and is cheaper. The KC defense seems to be playing less Man Coverage this year which is usually the signal for Aiyuk, while Deebo does better vs Zone. Kittle pops on the Matchup Chart and is a very solid option but a lot of that pop is coming from Weeks 1-2 where KC got demolished by Slot TE Isaiah Likely, followed by getting beat a bit by Slot TE Mike Gesicki. They have been better at limiting In-line TEs. All of this is to say, there isn't a strong signal pointing at any of the SF receiving options, but one of them is likely to have a big game. KC has been very stout vs the run, which adds to the idea that at least 1 SF passing option needs to be considered.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has taken on the Rashee Rice role getting the low aDOT targets opposite Kelce. He missed Thu practice with a hammy, which is a bad sign for his availability. If JuJu is out, they have Worthy, Hardman, wind sprint runner Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore available. That could mean more Kelce, who has been good vs SF with and without Rashee on the field the last 2 years, but he will certainly be a focus of Fred Warner and the SF defense. SF has been leaky to opposing #2 WRs, but I don't know who the #2 is if JuJu is out. Kelce, Worthy, and Hunt are the best bets for fantasy points, and it gets thin from there.
We are a third of the way through the NFL season. If you're looking for ways to finish the season strong as a bettor, DFS player, season long, etc. Head over to @oneweekseason and check out #TheWorkbook
I just posted this to the OWS Discord but thought some users of The Workbook might appreciate it here, too.
Flow Chart for #TheWorkbook Game Environment Charts
Net Game Environment By Team
Here we are looking at the intersect of the Net Total Plays and Net Drive Success Rates (DSR) based on the net matchup average for each Offense vs Defense and represented by the logo of the Offense for where those averages meet. We want to choose games with high Net DSR and a lot of Plays. In the figure above this is the first chart when reading from the top left to right, which is also the path we’ll follow for the flow chart. The teams with the highest DSR and Plays matchups are in the upper right of the chart, which is outlined in green. The green box is the best area to pull from, but those two yellow boxes mean that either there is a high DSR but fewer plays, or more plays but lower DSR. Those boxes are ok to work with as well. We usually want to avoid the teams in the lower left box, outlined in red.
Matchup Based Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE)
Once we have the DSR/Plays figured out now we want to look here (2nd box from the left, across the top) for passing stacks. The Upper right quad of this chart gives us the teams that are throwing the most on 1st and 2nd downs and in other situations when they are expected to run the ball. This is the box we most likely want to pull passing stacks from, but the two boxes with the yellow check marks may be pertinent as well. The lower left quad (outlined in fuchsia) is where we want to look for running backs. This is the quad where offenses prefer to run and the defenses are getting chewed up on the ground.
Who Might Throw More and Complete those Passes
This is where we see the intersect of the Net PROE and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). This chart will show us which team will throw more and likely complete more, or where the volume marries efficiency for the passing game. Again, we prefer teams in the upper right quad but are ok using teams from the quads with the yellow check marks. We generally want to avoid the lower left quad.
Matchup-Based Expected Points Added (EPA)
Expected points added measures how well a team performs relative to the expectation for the play. The upper two quads (green check marks) on this one show the offenses that have the higher Pass EPA per play matchup and the lower two quads (fuchsia check marks) show which teams have the better Rush EPA per play. The upper right quad indicates that matchup is good for the offense in both passing and rushing.
Matchup-Based Explosive Pass/Rush Rates
These are split into two charts, one for passing and one for rushing. Follow the green arrow to the passing chart and the fuchsia arrow to the rushing chart. Upper right are the best matchups for the offense. The bottom left are the worst.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 6 and the top players to build game stacks around.
🐦⬛Lamar/Daniels + Ertz (and/or WAS WR) + Henry + (BAL "All Slot")
The Ravens are involved in the highest Combined Net DSR game for a 2nd week in a row, and they are still funneling opposing offenses to the pass (#1 PROE this week, #4 most friendly EPA/Pass *behind #3 WAS*, and have allowed the most explosives passes per game). There are so many ways to attack this game and some of the spots are generically labeled, so here's my flow chart to this game.
Start with whichever QB you prefer, add either Ertz or one of the Ravens TEs (Andrews or Likely). If you're building with Henry then add a cheap WAS WR like Noah Brown or Dyami Brown if Noah is out (Zaccheaus also in play). As of posting time, Brian Robinson was not seen at practice, which narrows the RB touches to Ekeler and McNichols who are not highlighted but very much in play.
The Matchup Charts suggest these are the top 2 QBs for the slate. BAL defense allows 2nd most points to TE for the slate (Ertz). WAS defense allows 2nd most "All Slot" points for the slate and BAL primarily runs a TE as their slot receiver (Andrews/Likely). If using Daniels + Ertz then adding a cheap WAS WR could help you unlock Henry. Ekeler, and especially McNichols are a cheap way to add pieces tot his game stack regardless of which QB you're using.
🤠 Dak + Lamb + Gibbs/Monty
This game has the 3rd best CNDSR of the slate. The prices of the players in this game likely lead us to keeping this game stack on the skinny side. DET defense has allowed the least amount of RB fantasy points and the 3rd most Passing Yards for the slate. They are a pass funnel defense allowing the 2nd most explosive pass plays per game on the slate and the most fantasy points to WRs which is causing CeeDee Lamb to pop as the WR1 on the slate. Naturally, if we think CeeDee and the Dallas passing game explodes we'll want his QB, too.
The bring back from the DET side with the highest ceiling at cost is probably David Montgomery, but Gibbs is interesting too - if you can get there. Jalen Tolbert is a bit of a salary saver if you want to add another piece to the Dallas side of this stack. Another option would be to play LaPorta and hope he's finally healthy and pops at low rostership this week.
🐦Kyler + McBride + (MHJ or Wilson) + Reed
This game ranks #4 in CNDSR, the GB defense allows 3rd highest PROE and 5th most explosive passes, and Kyler Murray seems to be going over-looked. Kyler is mobile and has weapons giving him paths to hit. The Fantasy Point Net Matchup Charts favor McBride and an Outside WR for his stacking partners. Harrison is the most talented but Michael Wilson has established rapport with Kyler and can be used if you need to move down in salary, or want to use two OWR from ARI.
The Packers offense is likely going to force this game into a shootout (Vegas total is 3rd highest for the whole week), so we want their bring-backs. Jayden Reed has 30+ point ceiling and a floor that won't kill you if he doesn't hit. Tucker Kraft is in a neutral matchup and is certainly in play, but with Watson and Doubs back he'll have more competition for targets than the past two weeks. Jacobs and Conner are also in play as good volume at a fair price type plays.
Honorable Mention: Cousins + London + (Pitts) + Hubbard + (CAR WR)
This is one of 5 games on the main slate that has a CNDSR above .700 and offers an interesting late game stack with multiple leverage and swap pieces. If you're early game pieces didn't hit and you've stacked DAL/DET, consider swapping over to pieces from this game.
The field has been waiting for Bijan to hit but ATL has shown us they want to keep that backfield in a split. If the field wants to pile in on Bijan, then they're likely not rostering Chuba Hubbard (who will be popular) too, and probably bypassing the ATL passing game, which is what the ATL offensive identity is. Sure, CAR is soft against the run and ATL will run for balance, but the big plays (and TDs) could continue to come from the passing game and it offers additional leverage away from Bijan and the DAL/DET game.
If rostering a CAR WR, perhaps to pivot off of Hubbard, then keep an eye on Diontae Johnson's status. He's the guy to roster if healthy, otherwise they seem to be designing plays for Leggett who has big play potential.
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the games that have the top Game Environments for Week 5 and star players to make them work.
🐦⬛Lamar/Burrow + Henry + Bengals WR + (E. All)
This game has the highest Combined Net DSR (.751) of the slate while the Bengals have the 2nd highest PROE of the slate against a pass funnel defense. Ravens have been great on the ground, and although Bengals should get 1 of their starting DTs back, they're still no match for the Ravens run game. Lamar + Henry is where to go if building with Lamar at QB and add Bengals pieces from there. Burrow + Henry + Chase or Higgins + Eric All if you're playing the Bengals side. Eric All is still playing less snaps than Gesicki but his targets are starting to increase (only 3 behind Gesicki with one game missed) and his Targets Per Route Run (34.3%) is the highest on the team. Ravens have been allowing the most fantasy points to TEs of the slate.
🐆 Lawrence/Richardson + BTJ or Engram + Downs or Pittman + (Sermon)
This one comes with some caveats. There may be some weather effecting the game and the WR dynamic for the Colts will improve if Flacco starts. Richardson is in play because of how much man coverage the Jags run, which means he could run when no one is open. However, if the weather is a factor and he's not 100%, this decreases the chances of that. I prefer Lawrence having a coming out party in this one with the possible return of Engram who can give him another reliable intermediate target. Brian Thomas is explosive and the Colts secondary is dealing with CBs lost before the season as well as Kenny Moore being ruled out. The Jags could come out swingin in this one because of the 0-4 start and may not throttle down until they've score 3+ TDs.
🐶Daniels/Watson + Cooper + McLaurin or Brown
On paper, Watson has the better matchup and will be rostered less than Daniels, but both are in a good enough spot to consider for DFS this week. This is the 2nd highest CNDSR of the slate and WAS has the 3rd highest PROE in the league. Pick a QB and stack the WR1 from both sides and possible pivot or add Noah Brown in place of McLaurin. He's getting more comfortable in the offense and ran the 2nd most WR routes last week.
HONORABLE MENTION: Geno + Metcalf + JSN + Wandale or Slayton
This is a contrarian game stack. Seattle has the top PROE of the slate and is due for some passing TD regression. They have 8 rushing TDs compared to just 4 passing TDs this year. The NY defense has limited RB scoring and the field is going to want to play Walker. I want to be on it when Geno throws for 3+ TDs and it wasn't a game the field wanted to stack. With Nabers out, this could easily be a dud, but Slayton will step in and has Jones' trust (but nowhere near Nabers talent). Wandale will also likely be peppered with targets, which are great for a full PPR site like DK.
🔸Week 4 Game Stack Charts🔸
Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the games that have the top Game Environments and star players to make them work.
🐦 Kyler/Jayden + Robinson + Harrison + (Wilson)
This is the second game since I started charting Combined Net DSR for a game environment score. The other was the game MIA ran all over the Broncos last year. This game is also has the 3rd closest Net DSR Differential indicating this game has explosive potential. Pick your QB, tack on B-Rob with Ekeler out, then add Marv. You can add Higgins, Dortch or Wilson for the extra Card (if you want). I have Wilson here for DK value and vibes.
🦅 Hurts/Mayfield + Saquon + Godwin + healthy Philly WR
#2 Game in regard to Combined Net DSR and both defenses are sieves. Pick your QB (Hurts has best QB matchup after the two QBs above, Baker saves some salary), add Saquon (who has the #1 RB matchup on the slate), then tack on Godwin who has the #1 Slot WR matchup on the slate. Might need to wait until Sunday morning to check the vibes on adding an Eagles WR.
🐯 Burrow/Dalton + Chubba + Chase + Diontae
Again, pick your QB and add on from there. The Bengals will be missing both DTs again (assuming Hill being doubtful is a no go) which could open up more lanes or mitigate the Panthers being down their starting LG. Chase and Diontae are the alpha WR stack partners.
🧀Honorable Mention: Vikings/Packers
We still don't know Jordan Love's or Jaire Alexander's statuses as of this post. However, I am willing to roll with either Packers QB or Darnold (#5 QB Matchup) + Aaron Jones + either of Jefferson or Addison. Would be more comfortable with Jefferson is Jaire is ruled out.
FYI - we have another 800 Combined Net DSR game this week! I'm still putting the finishing touches on #TheWorkbook but does anyone want to take a guess which game it is?
In Week 7 of last year I started tracking a Game Environment metric I call "Combined Net DSR" (DSR = Drive Success Rate) to give me a snapshot of what the Net DSR is for both teams. It's derived by averaging the offenses vs defenses score for each team in the matchup, then combining (or averaging) those two Net DSR figures to create a single/matchup DSR score. Since tracking this, the highest I've seen a matchup score go was 0.752. this week we have an 0.800 !!! 👀
#TheWorkbook @oneweekseason
#TheWorkbook Week 1 is live over @oneweekseason
You can access it from The Scroll with a free membership at OWS.
The Workbook will help you learn to fish for yourself.
DFS - PROPS - PICK 'EM ---> Find Your Edge!
*Note: There is an "Addendum" tab this week that highlights some of the changes with new offensive play callers for 2024.
🔸Week 13 Matchup Charts🔸
Once again Dolphins, 49ers, and Texans are popping in the passing game. Single Entry folk (me) will have a headache picking which Steelers RB to use this week. Combine this data with the Game Environment charts to find the optimal plays. #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason
With the Deshaun Watson news today and the Browns expected to roll with DTR, the Browns will move below PIT in CPOE on this chart, with a net -5.9 CPOE. The table in #TheWorkbook has been updated to reflect the change.
🔸Week 11 Game Environment Charts🔸
Based on the PROE chart, could we consider this a 3 RB week on DK? Maybe, but there are two teams on there clumped right next to each other that look like a good game stack (TB/SF), and SF is the leader on the Net Explosive Pass Rate chart for the main slate.
SF pops with a cluster of other offenses in good spots on the Throw More/Complete More chart.
Nice group clumped together on the Game Environment (Plays + Net DSR) chart.
Miami coming off their bye week look great across those bottom 3 charts, and for Net DSR. 49ers and Bills also showing strong on the Offensive EPA (Run/Pass) chart.
Pittsburgh by themselves in the corner on a few of these😆
Big shoutout to @jcameronmetz for DM'ing me code to be able to pull EXPLOSIVE PLAYS out of R. I will be adding this to #TheWorkbook on @oneweekseason starting this week. I will also be posting the charts for it here and in the workbook. Hope this adds value to your process!
🔸Week 9 Game Environment Charts🔸
So many QB changes this week, it's going to be an interesting week sorting through DFS, Props, and Pick 'Ems. According the DSR Differential Chart (now in #TheWorkbook), the most evenly matched game is the MIN/ATL game and they're both starting a new QB. Next most evenly matched is NYG/LV, which also has QB changes. The third most evenly matched game got exported to Germany. Oof.
@oneweekseason
Here is a way to look at Game Environment metrics from #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason. I filtered this list by Offenses with the highest Net DSR Advantage for this week and added notes about DSR, PROE, CPOE, and Second Per Play.
My original goal was just to find which teams had the narrowest difference in Net DSR for the week, which is where I want to look for evenly matched teams to find optimal game environments. Ended up adding notes for myself and am sharing the work. Hope it helps!
Matchup-Based commentary to go along with the data found in #TheWorkbook on @oneweekseason
And here are the DSR Charts being referenced. The tables illustrate the cumulative DSR by each week of the season, along with what the team's 2022 DSR was, and a differential between the current DSR (through Wk6). Green boxes in the Diff column means the team got better; red means they got worse.
DFS WEEK 7: #TheWorkbook 🏈
🔸Top Stacks
🔸Drive Success Rate
🔸Volume & Yards Potential
🔸Data Trends through 6 Weeks
Enjoy this free data driven breakdown by @majesstik1
Top 4 QB/TE Stacks:
1. Mahomes + Kelce
2. Love + Musgrave
3. Lamar + Andrews
4. Ridder + Pitts/Jonnu
Top 4 QB/WR Stacks:
1. Mahomes + WRs
2. Stafford + WRs
3. Allen + WRs
4. Dobbs + WRs
-
DRIVE SUCCESS RATE (DSR)
OFFENSE DSR:
🐅CIN is crawling out of the massive hole they dug themselves into in Week 1. They have the second worst differential from 2022 DSR to current DSR.
🐶CLE offense is reeling from the loss of Chubb and missing Watson for the last two weeks.
🐎DEN offense started hot and is fizzling out but is still better than they were last year.
🦁DET has been steadily improving in 2023 but was better last year.
🔴HOU is remarkably better than last year with Stroud running the ship.
⚡️LAC is better this year, as most folks anticipated, but they can’t get wins.
🐏LAR has been surprisingly better than last year considering the loss of Kupp for 4 games and how much the OL has been injured.
🐬MIA is special. Enjoy the show.
🔺NE started hot and is flaming out bad.
🚧PIT is just bad.
⛏️SF Purdy continues to elevate this offense to levels Jimmy G didn’t. They have the 3rd highest improvement rate from last year.
DEFENSE DSR:
🐦⬛ATL has been stingier this year.
🟪BAL is also stingier and has been better on defense while missing several starters in the secondary.
🐶CLE is a juggernaut on defense
🤠DAL has weathered the loss of Diggs very well, although they are much better with him.
🐎DEN is a doormat on defense. Everyone walks all over them.
🦁DET is not as strong on defense this year, their main weakness has been TEs and Slot receivers.
⚡️LAC defense has gotten worse the longer Staley is there.
⚜️NO had a lot of turnover along the DL this offseason but has been better for it.
🟩SEA defense has trended toward being better each week of the season so far.
🟨WAS defense has gotten progressively worse each week.
-
VOLUME/YARDS
VOLUME:
💨The pass catching RBs in KC, LV, ATL, and DEN have the highest potential volume for the main slate.
👐The Rams, Chargers, Cardinals, and Steelers WRs have good potential matchup-based volume.
👐Rams and Steelers being high might mean we want a PIT bring-back on our LAR builds. KC is right behind PIT on there.
🪨ATL, KC, BAL, and CLE lead the pack for potential TE target volume.
YARDS:
🔥Mahomes continues to stand out when we get to the Yards tab, being the only player on the main slate with > 300 potential total yards. He’s followed by Stafford, Love, and Geno Smith.
💨RB potential total yard leaders are Aaron Jones, Pacheco, Walker, and the DEN committee.
👐WR Potential yardage could come from LAR, KC, SEA, LAC, and ARI.
🪨TE Yardage could come from ATL, GB, KC, and BAL.
-
DATA TRENDS THROUGH 6 WEEKS
RUN HEAVIEST TEAMS:
1. BAL
2. SF
3. CLE
4. PHI
5. DET
BAL and SF are sacrificing pass attempts the most.
PASS HEAVIEST TEAMS:
1. CAR
2. MIN
3. CIN
4. KC
5 LAR
CIN and MIN are sacrificing the run the most.
PASS FUNNEL DEFENSES:
1. SEA
2. JAX
3. SF
4. PHI
5. TB
Only Seattle is not in the bottom 5 for rush attempts faced.
RUN FUNNEL DEFENSES:
1. GB
2. PIT
3. MIN
4. NYJ
5. DEN
PIT and NYJ also see top-11 amounts of Pass Attempts faced.
-
Check out all the #TheWorkbook has to offer in the Scroll!
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