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To note:
✑ The market is more resilient to global risk-off episodes.
✑ However, it creates a different concentration risk.
The market may become increasingly dependent on:
- Pension allocation rules
- Domestic interest rates (which still somewhat feeds from global interest rates)
- Banking-system liquidity
- Money-market and fixed-income yields
- Regulatory decisions affecting institutional investors
✑ Retail participation has expanded significantly.
Retail participation almost doubled from 19% in 2015 to 36% in 5M 2026. It reached an exceptional 41% in 2024, exceeding institutional participation of 43% only slightly and becoming a major source of market activity.
What you see is a "structural development", and it most likely reflects:
- Easier access through digital investment platforms
- Greater awareness of equities following strong market returns
- Increased participation by younger investors
- Inflation encouraging people to seek assets that may preserve purchasing power
- Retail interest in bank recapitalisation offers, rights issues and public offers
- The emergence of online investment communities and financial content
Retail investors are no longer peripheral participants. They have become material to market liquidity, sentiment and price momentum.
✑ The pandemic period appears to have accelerated the transition.
The pandemic, global risk aversion, FX pressures and capital-control concerns likely accelerated a movement that was already developing. Foreign participation did not fully recover after that shock.
Foreign participation rose from 15% in 2024 to 22% in 2025. This could have indicated renewed foreign interest following reforms, currency adjustments, improved market returns or attractive valuations.
However, it declined again to 12% in the first five months of 2026.
This suggests one of two things:
- The 2025 improvement was temporary, perhaps driven by specific transactions or short-term optimism;
or
- Foreign investors remain interested, but participation is volatile and conditional on FX, policy and global market conditions.
A good trend, overall. But it can still be better.
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