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#USERX The descent continues, as expected. The 92-96 is starting to break. It cannot sell tomorrow but can on Monday. $10.99 is the target. The 92-96 sell will probably mark a short-term bottom, but what then? From the SKI perspective, the structure will be lost for the bull market. The only potentially positive SKI thing going on might be the run pattern, 3 up, 6 down, with an average of 2.26%, which looks interesting. Especially because in 3 days up, the second day was flat, making this setup resemble a life-run (or death-run, take your pick). I’ll probably buy the 92-96 sell signal, but just for a bounce to the $12.5 confluence level, then we will see, depending on signal orders.
#XGD.AX A strong down day after Wednesday’s carnage in the USA market caused the 16-20 to trigger a buy signal. In a true bull market, this signal should act as support. The $8500 support level held the first assault, but it will be under pressure again today. All 92-96 back prices are still lower than the current price. If $8500 breaks, the next target is $8021. I am 30% long.
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#USERX On the 16-20 execution day, the price closed at $11.7, below the recent low of $11.87. With the current momentum, this looks like a breakdown leading to a 92-96 sell signal. As mentioned before, if both the 92-96 sell triggers and $11.87 is breached, one should exit. The 92-96 index hasn’t been touched yet. The highest back prices in the next three days will be $11.67, $11.74, and $11.95. If the 92-96 sells, which is expected, it usually happens on the way down, making the $10.99 target likely. What seemed like a test of a breakout now looks more like a C wave down. If this is incorrect and the 92-96 sell signal is avoided again, it would be super bullish, but the chances are slim.
#XGD.AX The price fell slightly but after what happened in the USA the support at $8800, which held so far, will be smashed today. Also, a 16-20 buy will be triggered. The true 92-96 buy signal is still alive but it might get tested if the recent low is tested at $8170 (in a few days). Let’s see how today goes. I am 30% long.
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#USERX The 16-20 buy signal has been triggered. To sell tomorrow, a rise over $12.8 (+5.09%) is needed, which seems unlikely. A significant point in time is being marked on FOMC day. If this is a bottom, the whole structure from the October top could be seen as a test of the breakout. To confirm this, the price needs to quickly rise over $12.8 to sell the 16-20 first and then buy the 35-39. If this is not the bottom, the November low ($11.87) will break, and the 92-96 index will sell, with an initial target around $10.99.
#XGD.AX The 16-20 keeps breaking toward a buy signal. It cannot buy tomorrow but can on Friday. The $8800 acted as support yesterday and needs to continue doing so. The 92-96 is not in play yet, but it will be if the $8800 support breaks. I am 30% long.
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#USERX price is heading toward a 16-20 buy signal. To avoid the signal on Tuesday, a rise to $12.39 or higher (+0.98%) is needed. A further strong rise on Wednesday will be required to avoid the signal, so it’s likely the signal will be triggered or executed on FOMC day. If SKI history teaches us anything, this is no coincidence—a significant point in time is being marked. If the 92-96 sell signal was avoided for a reason, it wouldn’t make sense for the 16-20 buy signal to mark a breakdown, but one can never be 100% sure.
-Hold as long as 92-96 holds.
-If 92-96 sells, it’s okay to hold as long as $11.87 holds, anticipating a 35-39/92-96 double buy. However, selling now wouldn't hurt; one can always buy back when signals are triggered.
-If both 92-96 sells and $11.87 breaks down, then sell.
-35-39 buy signal is buyable.
-The confluence of indices around Christmas is the price magnet ($12.5-$12.8 range). This is the most probable period when the fate of this setup will be determined.
#XGD.AX A strong down day on Friday confirms that Thursday was a top. The current momentum suggests the next signal will be a 16-20 buy, but we'll see. Unlike USERX, the XGD’s 92-96 buy signal is not threatened yet, but it will be if the price falls to the $8500 region. Behaviour around $8800 will be key to assessing if this is likely. I am 30% long.
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#USERX With another strong down day, the 16-20 continues breaking toward a buy signal, and momentum suggests the recent low at $11.87 will be tested. If this happens, the 92-96 buy signal will also be tested. For now, nothing has changed:
-Hold as long as 92-96 holds.
-If 92-96 sells, it’s okay to hold as long as $11.87 holds, anticipating a 35-39/92-96 double buy. However, selling now wouldn't hurt; one can always buy back when signals are triggered.
-If both 92-96 sells and $11.87 breaks down, then sell.
35-39 buy signal is buyable.
-The confluence of indices around Christmas is the price magnet ($12.5-$12.8 range). This is the most probable period when the fate of this setup will be determined.
#XGD.AX A strong down day on Friday confirms that Thursday was a top. The current momentum suggests the next signal will be a 16-20 buy, but we'll see. Unlike USERX, the https://t.co/tyyzrWO3Nd’s 92-96 buy signal is not threatened yet, but it will be if the price falls to the $8500 region. Behaviour around $8800 will be key to assess if this is likely. I am 30% long.
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#USERX I initially thought that after the 92-96 sell was avoided, the next signal would be a 16-20 sell, representing resistance. I abandoned this idea after Wednesday’s surge, which seemed to break through the $12.8 resistance, but I was wrong. I overlooked the fact that Wednesday was the execution day, which can mark a high. Yesterday's poor performance in Australia and the crash in the USA signals a top; the question is, what kind? Today, the 660-664 index generated a sell signal and the price began moving toward a 16-20 buy signal, which should represent support, so we’re back where we started this week:
· Hold as long as 92-96 holds.
· If 92-96 sells, it’s okay to hold as long as $11.87 holds, anticipating a 35-39/92-96 double buy. However, it wouldn't hurt to sell; one can always buy back when signals are triggered.
· If both 92-96 sells and $11.87 breaks down, then sell.
· 35-39 buy signal is buyable.
· The confluence of indices around Christmas is the price magnet ($12.5-$12.8 range). This is the most probable period when the fate of this setup will be determined.
#XGD.AX The price action yesterday was appalling. A flat open was followed by a surge to close in the red. I think we saw a short-term top yesterday, and we will not continue to surge to buy the 35-39. Rather, a short-term consolidation/correction is in order, and then we will buy either a 16-20 or 35-39, probably in the $8800-$9000 region, as I originally thought. I am 30% long.
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#USERX The 16-20 sell executed today, and 660-664 will sell tomorrow. Today's price action is consistent with a bull market, and my hunch that the 16-20 sell might mark resistance now seems wrong. The more probable course is a rise into the 35-39 buy signal, marking a top around $13.80ish. The issue of indices convergence around Christmas also seems less likely to act as a magnet. We’ll see. There’s plenty of room for price movements up and down before the next signal. A potential 16-20 buy signal should represent support, while a 35-39 buy signal could mark a breakout, but with the current action, it might also mark a short-term top.
#XGD.AX A small up day was registered in Australia, with the AUD gold price surging 2.3%. Today, the AUD gold price closed near an all-time high, so with the strong move in U.S. gold stocks, an up day for Aussie golds is also expected. Since the double sell marked an acceleration point, I expect the price to rise into the 35-39 buy signal, marking a top in the $9400-$9600 range. I am 30% long but will not chase this rally.
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#USERX has no data for today. I'll publish as soon as the data comes out.
#XGD.AX I was wrong expecting that the double sell signal would represent some kind of short-term resistance; instead, it marked an acceleration point. I was unsure anyway, but once again, the SKI signals proved to be unmatched in marking significant points in time. Yesterday’s strong rise increases the chance that a 35-39 buy signal will be the next to trigger, but we’re not there yet. I am 30% long.
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#USERX With today’s move the 16-20 index sell signal seems imminent. To avoid triggering this signal tomorrow, the price needs to close at $12.05 or lower (-6.15%). Given the current market conditions, this outcome seems unlikely. The long-term 660-664 index is breaking toward a sell signal. If we are in a bull market the price should break through this sell and buy back at a higher price which cannot happen for months. If it buys back quickly it will be at a much lower price but given the structure and an active bull market signal that is not expected.
Repeat from yesterday: ‘If the 16-20 sells, the next signal will either be a 16-20 buy (which should represent support) or a 35-39 buy (not xxed), which would be buyable.
There is one special case that could be different: at the end of December, there is a confluence of all three indices. If the price enters the $12.5-$12.8 region, we could see a mix of signals (16-20 buy, 35-39 buy, and 92-96 sell) potentially happening simultaneously. These types of confluences tend to act as price magnets, so let’s see if it happens this time. It would create maximum uncertainty and would be potentially hard to interpret.’
#XGD.AX A quiet day in AUS didn’t change much. Both the 16-20 and 35-39 indices executed their sell signals simultaneously. I’m unsure how to interpret this since it’s happening on the way up and within a true bull market, but I’d say it’s at least short-term bearish. The next signal will either be a 16-20 buy (xxed), which I assume is not buyable, or a 35-39 buy signal (not xxed), which is buyable. Let’s see what happens. I am 30% long.
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#USERX The 92-96 sell signal was avoided, and the 16-20 index is in the process of selling. If the 16-20 sells, the next signal will either be a 16-20 buy (which should represent support) or a 35-39 buy (not xxed), which would be buyable.
There is one special case that could be different: at the end of December, there is a confluence of all three indices. If the price enters the $12.5-$12.8 region, we could see a mix of signals (16-20 buy, 35-39 buy, and 92-96 sell) potentially happening simultaneously. These types of confluences tend to act as price magnets, so let’s see if it happens this time. It would certainly create maximum uncertainty and would be potentially hard to interpret.
#XGD.AX Both the 16-20 and 35-39 indices crossed to sell simultaneously. I’m not sure how to interpret this because it’s happening on the way up and inside a true bull market, but I’d say it’s at least short-term bearish. The next signal will either be a 16-20 buy (xxed), which I assume is not buyable, or a 35-39 buy signal (not xxed), which is buyable. Let’s see what happens. I am 30% long.
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#USERX There was no real follow-up today, despite gold metal closing up and a strong day in equities. That is not promising. The 92-96 buy is still holding, so we are allowed to hold, but nothing more. $12.80 needs to be broken to confirm the bottom. 16-20 index started breaking today so if it sells on a rise, as usual, it might mark a short-term top. $11.88 needs to hold for the bullish scenario to continue.
There is a confluence of 16-20, 35-39 and 92-96 around $12.8 at Christmas; this might be the price magnet implying we go nowhere for about three weeks.
#XGD.AX The price closed at $8,793, a 0.77% rise. It wasn’t strong enough to prevent the 35-39 index from breaking further. A further rise to $8,920 or higher (+1.44%) is needed to avoid a sell signal tomorrow. I’m still 30% long, didn’t buy yesterday, and probably won’t buy today either.
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#USERX Today’s strong up day suggests that the USERX 92-96 sell signal might have been avoided. I’d still like to see a close above $12.80 to confirm the bottom.
#XGD.AX The price closed at $8722, 0.77% lower than the day before. Neither the 16-20 nor 35-39 signal can trigger today. Given the overnight gold stocks action in the USA, it is plausible that 35-39 sell signal will be avoided until at least $9500. This makes me think that my current exposure might be insufficient. Therefore, if the XGD opens flat, I plan to increase my position by 20%, bringing my exposure to 50%.
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#USERX , $12.4, -1.74%
Not much has changed from the last time. The 92-96 sell signal has been avoided despite a down day. The price closed at $12.4. Interestingly, the sell signal cannot be generated tomorrow due to the chart pattern of the last few days. This opens a new possibility; a hard drop tomorrow might prepare the index to sell on Wednesday but then generate a juxtaposed true bull buy signal on Thursday for a potential explosive bull market. That would fit the third scenario from my Friday writing just instead of a JOPT buy we would have a true bull buy. Repeat from the last time:
-If the 92-96 doesn't sell, one is allowed to hold.
-If the 92-96 sells, one is allowed to hold as long as $11.88 holds.
-A possible 92-96 JPOT buy is buyable (above $11.88).
-If both the 92-96 and $11.88 break, one should be out; the target is then $10.99.
#XGD.AX $8790, -1.55%
The drop today was enough to touch the 35-39 back prices and start a break towards a 35-39 sell signal. This is in line with yesterday's second scenario where the 35-39 sell happens before a 16-20 sell. We will see how that goes but for now, nothing has changed from my last post.
Repeat from yesterday: If the price continues to rise, the first signal to generate will be a 16-20 sell signal. This will then be followed by a 35-39 sell signal if the price rise cannot be sustained to avoid it. This double-sell scenario seems quite probable, with resistance projected around the $9,300–$9,500 level. At that point, we would need a new 35-39 buy signal (buyable) to mark a breakthrough and potentially the start of a new leg up.
If this scenario doesn’t unfold and the next signal is a 35-39 sell, we are likely heading lower to test the 92-96 support and the recent low at $8,165.
The third scenario, though less probable, is an immediate rise through the 16-20 sell signal, continuing to avoid the 35-39 sell signal and reaching a new high.
I am currently 30% long and waiting. In the first and second scenarios, I will buy a new 35-39 buy signal (or $8100 support if it holds). If the third scenario happens, I will be forced to buy at the high, but I probably will not buy a full position.
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#USERX Nothing has changed, the 92-96 sell signal has been avoided again, the price closed at $12.62. To sell tomorrow $12.28 or lower (-2.69%). Repeat from yesterday:
-If the 92-96 doesn't sell, one is allowed to hold.
-If the 92-96 sells, one is allowed to hold as long as $11.88 holds.
-A possible 92-96 JPOT buy is buyable (above $11.88).
-If both the 92-96 and $11.88 break, one should be out; the target is then $10.99.
#XGD.AX Another small rise avoided touching the 35-39 index back prices, but it started breaking the 16-20 back prices toward a sell signal. If the price continues to rise, the first signal to generate will be a 16-20 sell signal. This will then be followed by a 35-39 sell signal if the price rise cannot be sustained to avoid it. This double-sell scenario seems quite probable, with resistance projected around the $9,300–$9,500 level. At that point, we would need a new 35-39 buy signal (buyable) to mark a breakthrough and potentially the start of a new leg up.
If this scenario doesn’t unfold and the next signal is a 35-39 sell, we are likely heading lower to test the 92-96 support and the recent low at $8,165.
The third scenario, though less probable, is an immediate rise through the 16-20 sell signal, continuing to avoid the 35-39 sell signal and reaching a new high.
I am currently 30% long and waiting. In the first and second scenarios, I will buy a new 35-39 buy signal. If the third scenario happens, I will be forced to buy at the high, but I probably will not buy a full position.
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#USERX The 92-96 sell signal has been avoided again, the price closed at $12.55. To sell tomorrow $12.45 or lower (-0.8%). Repeat from yesterday:
-If the 92-96 doesn't sell, one is allowed to hold.
-If the 92-96 sells, one is allowed to hold as long as $11.88 holds.
-A possible 92-96 JPOT buy is buyable (above $11.88).
-If both the 92-96 and $11.88 break, one should be out; the target is then $10.99.
#XGD.AX A small rise avoided touching/breaking the 35-39 index back prices again. That is positive but nothing has been resolved yet. Repeat from yesterday: The 35-39 sell signal marked the top, and the price is now moving toward a sell signal, which will occur in a few days if the price closes around $8,500. The 92-96 bull signal remains out of the picture for now; the back prices are currently around $8,200 but will start falling soon (current price: $8,699). If this is the B wave down, the target should be around $8,100, where I might start buying, but we will see if and when. The concern is currently with other gold indices, many of which seem poised to end their 92-96 buy signals. If this happens, the bottom for this correction might be much lower than currently expected. Patience is in order. I reduced my position to 30% long and will stay there until the situation clears.
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#USERX It turns out we topped out on Friday. Today’s down day confirms the reliable bearish 1-down, 2-up run pattern, which has a 70+% probability. This probably marks the start of the C wave down, targeting at least the recent low ($11.88), but more likely the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $10.99.
The issue is that the 92-96 sell signal is likely to trigger, and this will probably happen across the indices. To sell tomorrow USERX needs to close at $12.28 or lower (-1.37%). If this transpires it’s probably wise to reduce positions to a minimum and observe the situation. I’m certain that’s what Jeff would have done if he were still with us.
Alternatively, if the bearish scenario doesn’t play out and the price turns around before the recent low is breached, it will either avoid the 92-96 sell signal or allow for a quick rebuy before more damage is done. One can play this scenario, but $11.88 should serve as a stop-loss.
https://t.co/tyyzrWO3Nd How quickly things change. Yesterday morning it seemed I made a mistake selling on Friday but by the end of the day things changed to exactly what I originally expected. The 35-39 buy signal marked the top of the B wave, and the $8,100 area is now the downside target. I might start buying there, but this will depend on how the price behaves around the rising 92-96 back prices which are now heading into the $8100 area. The concern isn't just with the XGD structure but also with other gold indices, many of which seem poised to end their 92-96 buy signals. If this happens, the bottom for this correction might be much lower than currently expected. Patience is in order. I am 50% long and might sell down to 30% in anticipation of 92-96 signals ending across the board.
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#USERX Today's close at $12.80 avoids the 92-96 back prices, placing the price above all of them again. This means that a mini crash is required to trigger a 92-96 sell signal, which cannot happen before Wednesday. This narrow escape from the 92-96 sell signal is undeniably bullish. A similar pattern occurred three times since the February bottom:
The bull market started with a narrow escape from a 92-96 sell signal by one day, followed by a similar escape from the 35-39 signal to mark the bottom before the breakout move started. After the $12 level was broken, a 16-20 buy signal was rejected, marking the start of the rally into the October top.
To summarize what happened this week: The execution of the 35-39 sell and 439-443 buy signals marked the exact bottom of the correction so far. The bottom tested the breakout level from above and coincided with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February bottom. The bullish 92-96 buy signal survived, which is classic SKI behaviour and paints a very bullish picture.
I recommended buying at the exact bottom and anticipated the bounce to reach the $12.80 level (it did), where I suggested aggressive traders might consider selling some. However, now, I’m unsure if selling is advisable. The strong momentum in gold prices suggests they may rise further, likely pushing the USERX price to the 16-20 sell range between $13.20 and $13.60 which is probably a better place to consider selling some in anticipation of C wave down. This is if the 35-39 doesn’t buy before the 16-20. If it does maybe wait for a 35-39 sell to play the C wave down.
If I’m wrong and we have already peaked on Friday, the SKI might provide a clue in a form of a run pattern. The current developing pattern, 1 small down and 2 small up, will be confirmed if Monday closes down. This is a reliable bearish pattern and would likely trigger the C wave down. The relative weakness of gold stocks over the last two days, especially Friday, could support this development. But let’s see how things unfold.
#XGD.AX The 35-39 buy signal was generated. While I did sell on Friday, I'm not entirely satisfied with that decision now. I suspected, as mentioned in my Friday's analysis, that 90% of traders on X agreeing with me wasn’t a good sign, and it seems I was right. Nonetheless, I stuck to my plan, booked some solid profits, and will now watch to see what happens around the $9,500 level, which seems like an obvious target.
Once this level is hit, I expect a correction down to around $8,800, at which point I plan to buy back. I am currently 50% long.
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#USERX The price closed at $12.72, just one cent above the highest back price, which is a clear bullish sign. If the 92-96 sell signal is avoided, as expected, the most probable next signal is a 16-20 sell. At that point, if I were a U.S. trader, I would lighten up and wait for the 35-39 buy signal to go all in.
Alternatively, if a 35-39 buy occurs first, one would sell on the next 35-39 sell signal (optionally sell the 16-20 sell, but that’s risky if the 35-39 sell never happens), and then wait for the next 35-39 buy to go all in.
#XGD.AX Today, a 35-39 buy signal will be generated if the price doesn't decline by 3.22% or more. Given the current market conditions, this outcome is probable, so I will proceed with my plan to sell today, reducing my position to 50% long and then waiting. While I am not entirely convinced about the market's direction, I will adhere to my plan.
Two scenarios are now in play:
1. The 35-39 buy marks high of B Wave: If the current rally is a countertrend move, we should anticipate a C wave down to retest support. Originally, I considered this scenario the most probable. However, given that 90% of traders on X agree with it, I am now less certain but will still stick to the plan because I am happy with taking profits. The target for this move would be around $8,100, where I would consider buying again.
2. The 35-39 buy marks acceleration of B Wave: If the 35-39 buy signal marks an acceleration, the price could rise to sell the 16-20 at approximately $9,400 and then proceed to sell the 35-39 for a double sell, leading to a correction down to $8,800. This scenario would be more challenging to monitor if I sell now, but it would be acceptable since the price is expected to eventually decline to my exit point. The trouble will be if the 35-39 doesn’t sell and the price keeps rising but I consider this the least probable and if it happens I am still 50% long.
Currently, I am 90% long, but this will change today.
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#USERX continues to avoid triggering a 92-96 sell signal. This signal cannot occur tomorrow, and to keep avoiding it, the price needs to stay at or above the current level for another three days. $12.80 should act as strong resistance, potentially serving as a target for this move. Aggressive traders might consider selling some positions at that level. For those who bought during the 35-39 sell signal, the recent low serves as a stop-loss point.
Repeat from yesterday:
My bias is that we will either avoid the 92-96 sell or experience a sell/buy without closing under the current low, making it a buyable option. The most probable next signal is a 16-20 sell, at which point I would lighten up and then wait for the 35-39 buy signal to go all in. Alternatively, if a 35-39 buy comes first, one would sell on the next 35-39 sell signal (optionally sell the 16-20 sell, but that is risky if the 35-39 sell never happens), then wait for the next 35-39 buy to go all in.
#XGD.AX The 35-39 index back prices started breaking toward a buy signal. My $8800 target was hit yesterday but I am not selling until the 35-39 signal is generated.
Repeat from yesterday:
The ideal bullish scenario would be as follows: a rise into a 35-39 buy signal, marking a short-term top, then a small correction before the rise resumes into a 16-20 sell signal ($9,200–$9,400), marking a top, followed by a 35-39 sell signal for a double sell. This would lead us back to around $8,800 to test the support again, and then a new, buyable 35-39 signal would mark the start of a new leg up. The time frame for this potential buyable 35-39 signal is the first week of January.
If all this is incorrect and we keep falling, the 92-96 will sell, and the bull market will end. I am 90% long and will not add to my positions anymore.
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#USERX USERX's surge today is attempting to avoid a 92-96 sell signal, indicating bullish behaviour. To successfully avoid the 92-96 sell, a rise above $12.71 this week is needed. If this doesn't occur, USERX remains buyable here for a potential bounce, provided we don't close below the recent low. A close under the recent low would suggest exiting the position.
My bias is that we will either avoid the 92-96 sell or experience a sell/buy without closing under the current low, making it a buyable option. The most probable next signal is a 16-20 sell, at which point I would lighten up and then wait for the 35-39 buy signal to go all in. Alternatively, if a 35-39 buy comes first, one would sell on the next 35-39 sell signal (optionally sell the 16-20 sell, but that is risky if the 35-39 sell never happens), then wait for the next 35-39 buy to go all in.
#XGD.AX The 35-39 sell signal has marked the low, as expected. The question now is how high this bounce will take us. The 92-96 index is on a true bull signal, and as long as that remains unchanged, we are in a bull market. For now, I expect the first target to be $8,800, which will generate a 35-39 buy signal. These signals are buyable within the bull market, but right now, the structure of the 35-39 is weak. Such a buy would most likely lead to a quick sell; therefore, a more appropriate action would be to sell what I bought on the way up and then wait for the next 35-39 buy signal with a stronger structure.
The ideal bullish scenario would be as follows: a rise into a 35-39 buy signal, marking a short-term top, then a small correction before the rise resumes into a 16-20 sell signal ($9,200–$9,400), marking a top, followed by a 35-39 sell signal for a double sell. This would lead us back to around $8,800 to test the support again, and then a new, buyable 35-39 signal would mark the start of a new leg up. The time frame for this potential buyable 35-39 signal is the first week of January.
If all this is incorrect and we keep falling, the 92-96 will sell, and t
#USERX #GOLD #SILVER #GoldStocks #AussieGoldStocks
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