Top Tweets for #bracketluck
#15 Seed Pitt upsets #10 Seed Stanford in the final second of the ACC Tournament opener.
#15 Pitt vs #7 NC State Tomorrow @ 12PM
On seeding ... a core tenet of #StayAt4 was warning that seed & team quality would be misaligned, thus seed wouldn't be critical (#BracketLuck).
Only 1 year in, but that looks accurate.
Committee / #MetricsConsensus rank
1/3
2/5
3/4
4/8
5/2
6/1
7/9
8/10
9/25
10/13
11/6
12/18
I asked Lincoln Riley if the stakes of rivalries like USC-ND would be lost with a four-AQ format that devalued non-conf games.
“I think it incentivizes you even more to play them,” he said.
Pointed out that CFP seeding would still be impacted
2024 has been fantastic #StayAt4 proof of concept. I'm proud at how the old tweets have aged.
There was a lot of SEC takeover doom - which didn't happen in year 1. But a lot of #BracketLuck. A lot of 5-8's will win (but as favorites, often heavy).
And a lot of Ohio State.
The last great regular season CFB game ...
#MetricsConsensus national title odds change, based on a win vs loss today
In a 4-team CFP
32% change for Michigan
24% change for Ohio State
In a 12-team CFP
3% change for Michigan
5% change for Ohio State
#StayAt4
1/6
@NanduriNFL Check tweet history w/ #StayAt4 & #BracketLuck in it. Has aged well. We've been screaming that for years bc it was obvious from the jump.
All starts with the ability to evaluate the teams correctly, which a frustratingly low percentage of fans & media are unwilling/able to do.
"Winning 2 games as double digit favorites as a low seed" this year that was Texas (actually) and Penn State (nearly).
#StayAt4 #BracketLuck
@clint_derringer Another reason why I hate CFP expansion, with a passion : bracket luck
Getting to advance to the semis by winning two games as double digit favorites, when others of similar quality wouldn't get close to the same fortune, really bothers me.
That is much less of a thing w/ 4.
Was pointed out to me by @bweiny today, that had Ohio State beaten Michigan, made the B1G CG and lost to Oregon close again, falling to the 5-seed.
Oregon (if they were lucky & won their QF over ND/Penn State) would have had to beat them a THIRD TIME!
#BracketLuck
#StayAt4
Entering the CFP #MetricsConsensus ranks
#1 ... 2024 Ohio State
#11 ... 2017 UCF
The #StayAt4 perspective knew there would be some really bad attempts to weaponize CFP results.
But the mainstream media has been OK (fully embraced #BracketLuck).
The worst is from @RedditCFB.
Penn State winning would also up the troll factor on Oregon. A Penn State - Ohio State national title game would be peak #StayAt4.
Hey you rank the table in your new league, here's a trophy game, win it to your death, or lose it to your benefit.
#BracketLuck
Regular season CFB, full of matchups w/ national title leverage, feeding into a national CFP.
It was incredible. Would've still been incredible.
Here we are. The Pac-12 is gone, and 4 teams w/ a combined 7 L's are "peaking at the right time".
#BracketLuck
#StayAt4
#NFL
The 4-team CFP w/ old alignment would've been fantastic in 2024.
#1 Oregon (0 L)
#2 Texas (0)
#3 Ohio State (1)
#4 Georgia (1)
ND punished for NIU, feels pressure to join a conference.
ACC punished for being worst P5.
ASU & BSU have shots at Oregon.
#StayAt4
As opposed to 2023 Washington, who was also not metrics elite but ...
✅️ Lost 0 regular season games
✅️ Won 1 road as a small dog
✅️ Won 2 neutrals as substantial dogs
The CFP has made it a Dec/Jan sport now,which for some is an absolute breeze.
#BracketLuck
#StayAt4
Penn State has a chance to play for a national title by
✅️ not being metrics elite
✅️ losing 2 regular season games as a dog, (failing to cover both times)
✅️ winning 1 neutral site game as a tiny dog, w/ 2 days more rest than their opp
#WeAre #BracketLuck
#StayAt4
Penn State has a chance to play for a national title by
✅️ not being metrics elite
✅️ losing 2 regular season games as a dog, (failing to cover both times)
✅️ winning 1 neutral site game as a tiny dog, w/ 2 days more rest than their opp
#WeAre #BracketLuck
#StayAt4
It was not easy deciding who to root for after the disappointing Georgia loss.
I don't like any of these teams, but all offer upside w/ personal agendas.
Texas is #SEC
Ohio State is #StayAt4
Penn State is #BracketLuck
Notre Dame is #MetricsConsensus
Go Texas.
#HookEm
"Disappointment"
They went 13-0 & won the Big Ten. Next year they could go 9-3 & easily find themselves in the semifinals.
It's a new era of CFB. The goal is to be good enough to get in to the randomized reset as often as possible.
#BracketLuck
#StayAt4
#NFL
Final 2024 #MetricsConsensus / #StayAt4 / #BracketLuck Charity Bet Results
6-0 w/ $430 raised.
✅ OSU -7 vs Tenn ($40)
✅ PSU SUP vs BSU ($40)
✅ PSU -7.0 vs BSU ($120)
✅ Texas SUP vs ASU ($40)
✅ OSU SUP vs Oregon ($40)
✅ PSU *vs* Oregon ($40)
All-time record 11-1-1.
2024 #MetricsConsensus / #StayAt4 / #BracketLuck Charity Bets
✅Ohio State -7 vs Tennessee ($40)
❔Penn State SUP vs Boise State ($40)
❔Penn State -7.0 vs Boise State ($120)
❔Texas SUP vs Arizona State ($40)
❔Ohio State SUP vs Oregon ($40)
❔Penn State * vs * Oregon ($40)
"If I was an Oregon fan I wouldn't be happy about being 13-0 and playing Ohio State in your first playoff game..
I'm not an internet guy but if I was an Oregon fan I'd be on the internet screaming about that..
Living in my mother's basement" 😂😂
Coach Saban #PMSLive
On #BracketLuck, remember that Oregon
2014 > drew Florida State in semi, 2nd worst metrics team to ever qualify for the 4-team CFP
2019 > drew Wisconsin (B10 #3 metrics) in the Rose Bowl, vultured a win largely b/c punter dropped a snap
2023 > vultured NY6 win over Liberty
Do I have any takers for more charity bets?
I've railed for years against CFP expansion w/ various hashtags. Come put me in my place.
Bet on Arizona State or Boise State to critique #BracketLuck. Bet on Oregon to critique #StayAt4.
(no Georgia opp b/c #SouthernDominanceDay)
Watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba go off is giving me Rose Bowl memories that I hope repeat themselves in a few weeks 😀.
#StayAt4
#BracketLuck
#Zeros
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