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Off Leash update 29 September 2026 UK •UK counterterrorism police release abruptly freed on bail the five men they’d arrested early Sunday near RAF Fairford on suspicions of plotting a terrorist attack on the base, which houses U.S. B-1 bombers. •The men’s release suggested police didn’t find enough evidence to substantiate their initial terrorism allegations – though counterterrorism police chief Laurence Taylor said his force was still “considering this from every possible angle, including that this may be actively committed by proxies or individuals, either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.” •U.S. officials seem to think so. SecState Rubio said the incident “clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor,” while Pres. Trump said the suspects “might” be linked to Iran and had been “under view for a long time.” YEMEN •The World Health Organization estimated that at least 838 people have died and over 3,000 have been injured since early August, when fighting resumed between the Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces in Yemen. •The Yemeni army says that Houthi fighters made up 476 of those killed and wounded in the last 24 hours alone. •Government forces and Houthis are currently engaged in fierce fighting across 10 different fronts, and Saudi backing is proving to be insufficient to turn the tide in the army’s favor. The Yemeni government is reportedly pleading with the U.S. to step in and desperately trying to recruit more soldiers. It’s even enticing Houthi fighters to switch sides with offers of amnesty. ETHIOPIA •After Ethiopia’s army chief accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of backing the newly allied rebel forces fighting the government, The Economist pointed out that all three have a reason to. •Egypt accuses Ethiopia of stealing its precious water resources with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; Eritrea resents Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s threats to annex part of its coastline for a port; and Sudan’s government despises Abiy’s support for the Rapid Support Forces it’s fighting in a brutal civil war. •Fighting continues to intensify in the north, but government forces still seem to have the upper hand and control the air. They retook the southern Tigrayan town of Alamata – a key supply hub – back from rebels yesterday. RUSSIA •According to documents seen by Reuters, Russia plans to expand its 2027 military budget by 27% to 17.1 trillion rubles ($203 billion), which is the highest level planned since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. [Russia’s actual military spend is classified but likely ends up being slightly higher than planned each year.] •On the other side of the equation, the same documents showed that the Kremlin expects its budget deficit for 2026 to yawn to double its original estimate of 1.6% of GDP and land on 3.2% of GDP, or about 7.5 trillion rubles ($87 billion). •The draft budget that planners will submit to parliament next week will offer clues as to how the Kremlin plans to close the fiscal gap. It has already announced tax increases for 2027, including a new windfall tax on mining companies that will raise an estimated 200 billion rubles per year. •But taxes alone won’t be enough to close the gap – at least not at levels that Russian citizens or companies will tolerate. That’s perhaps why the Kremlin is also grabbing assets from the few foreign firms still operating in the country. •This week, it placed the Russian assets of several major European firms – including France’s Leroy Merlin and Auchan, Germany’s Makro, and Switzerland’s Nestlé – under temporary administration, seizing company shares and replacing foreign managers in a possible first step towards confiscating or nationalizing the local subsidiaries. •Moscow said the asset seizures were a response to “hostile actions” by “unfriendly” European governments, but it surely won’t mind the idea of squeezing foreigners instead of taxpayers for funds to help close the budget gap. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •OpenAI said it won’t release its latest model, GPT-6.1 Astra, after the company’s own researchers raised concerns about the model’s behavior in testing. •Specifically, Astra demonstrated a propensity for misleading its human users during tests and drifted worryingly from its prescribed scope without checking in for instructions. •Instead of shipping Astra, OpenAI said it will focus on reinforcing safeguards in future models it plans to build atop the same base model.