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Are private‑credit vehicles effectively functioning like open‑end funds with closed‑end liquidity, creating a structural duration mismatch? NAV marks lag reality; redemption queues reveal it. Q3 redemption requests again at ~10% of NAV, but quarterly gates fixed at 5%, implying a 50% rejection rate and a structural liquidity shortfall ratio (LSR) of ~0.5.The backlog rollover, $2.3B from prior quarter, creates a compounding queue‑duration function: multi‑period sellers receive ~75% of requested capital over ~90 days, implying an effective liquidity half‑life of ~1.2 quarters. Secondary markets are pricing distress: software‑linked loans trade <90c on the dollar, consistent with a market‑implied PD (probability of default) of ~12–15% and LGD (loss‑given‑default) assumptions drifting toward 35–45%. Troubled‑loan inventories have reverted to 2017‑level baselines, suggesting a cycle‑mean reversion in credit impairment. The 2020–23 LBO vintage now screens as a negative‑convexity cohort under AI‑driven revenue uncertainty? ht: FT/Moodys/WSJ/BoA 📰https://t.co/5BcQW9Qzhm 📰https://t.co/o5cY0G7z4O #credit #privatecredit #Privateequity #Loan #fed #InterestRate #pension