Top Tweets for #river1
CoreWeave's revenue was zero a couple of years ago and is $7 billion now, expected to reach $64 billion in four years. In our view, a massive CapEx bill with negative free cash flow is the problem. #River1 $CRWV
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
Raise your hand if you remember credit default swaps from 2008. CoreWeave's are making fresh highs, and Rob Haugen explains why we dislike the company and why it might be the bag holder of the data center buildout. #River1 $CRWV
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
CoreWeave's credit default swaps are making fresh highs while the stock heads toward 52-week lows.
@rob_haugen on why we have never owned CRWV, and why a massive CapEx bill has us on the sideline. #River1 #CRWV #CoreWeave
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@lululemon (LULU) traded at almost 10x revenue in 2021. It trades at 1x today, down from a $511 peak to the 90s. In our view, valuation is very affordable, and Rob Haugen explains what we'd want to see from here. #River1 $LULU
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@McDonalds is down 30% from its peak, a falling knife heading into the end of the quarter 3. We break down what the issues actually are and where we think a good entry point might eventually be. #River1 $MCD
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@McDonalds is down 30% from its peak and trading at a 19 PE, down from a 25x average. We still think it's too expensive. Free cash flow yield is about 4%, we'd want closer to 6%. Our math points to value nearer $180, not today's $233. #River1 $MCD
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We still wouldn't buy Wingstop at $100. $1.1B in debt against $260M in EBITDA, three straight quarters of single-digit growth, and a fair value estimate that lands almost exactly where the stock trades today.
We'd want to see it 20-30% lower. #River1 $WING
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We called this in July 2024: watch out below if Wingstop's growth slowed.
It went from $400 to $100. Growth fell from 36% to 8%, and the revenue multiple compressed from 20x to 5x.
Is $100 finally a place to step in? #River1 $WING
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@Chewy's valuation went from $10B at IPO to $42B during COVID, back down to $8B today, and it's down another 10% this week. We break down what we think the long-term value looks like from here. #River1 $CHWY
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$DELL traded below a 20 PE for years on 6% margins and no real top or bottom line growth. The recent PE explosion isn't hype, it's the market pricing in earnings that are now actually expected to grow year after year. #River1
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@DICKS Sporting Goods gapped from $200+ to $125 on an earnings miss tied to Foot Locker. Margins fell from 9% to 4%, but price-to-book just hit a level that's historically been a good entry point. We think this could be a rare spot to be a contrarian. #River1 $DKS
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
On ($ONON) is down 25% this week. Growth went from 29% to 13% in three quarters, and Wall Street's estimates may not have caught up yet. We wrote up the full breakdown, including what it would take for the stock to rerate higher. #River1 https://t.co/lCMTlgG93t
On Holding's growth went from 23% to 14% to 13% over the last three quarters. Wall Street still models 18-19% growth ahead for next year. If 13-14% is the new normal, those estimates, and the EPS numbers built on them, are probably still too high. #River1 $ONON
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
Charter Communications trades at a sub-4x PE. That number is lying to you.
$94B in debt. $10B in interest. $10B+ in CapEx. What's left for shareholders? A 3-4% free cash flow yield.#River1
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
@CaterpillarInc's PE went from under 20x to as high as 50x in a year.
Its margins improved.
That doesn't explain 50x.
The rest is passive money that can't sell on valuation (only buy). We'd be sellers here. #River1
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*All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
Oracle $ORCL stock has fallen from $328 to $120 in about a year. Rob dug into what's driving the drop, and whether there's value sitting at the bottom. #River1🧵
Jane Street pulls in about $11 million in revenue per employee.
Nvidia's under $4 million.
Meta's around $3 million.
Apple's a bit over $2 million.
Running the pipeline pays.
#River1
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- All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
Leveraged ETFs are less than 0.2% of the stock market. They account for 4% of daily trading, the same as every dollar sitting in passive funds combined. Here's where that money actually goes. 🧵 #River1
"If a public company puts their name on a stadium, look out below."
Fiserv did exactly that, and the stock has been one of the more troubled fintech names since.
We dig into what's actually going on with FISV, and whether there's value here now. #River1
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📷 The Morning Note https://t.co/uwGkstJGwy
- All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
Two ways to play the power queue.
Behind-the-meter names like Vistra and Constellation skip grid approval entirely.
GE Vernova, Vertiv, Eaton, Quanta probably benefit longer-term as MISO works through the backlog.#River1
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- All investing involves risk. This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation of securities and should not be construed as investment advice.
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