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#ShopifyDiary 415: An update on my attempts to acquire a Shopify app - this month I've made offers for 2 apps but they both wanted multiples that I don't think are realistic. It was good to see that they actively wanted to sell to us as they were confident we'd look after their customers properly, but we couldn't agree on price.
It's surprisingly hard to find an app whose revenue from new customers is growing - most revenue growth seems to come from existing customers paying more, but I believe that if new customers aren't growing then that's a bad sign.
#ShopifyDiary 414: I was surprised by this comment in this week's Shopify App Founders Edition newsletter - "A lot of merchants have a technology freeze around BFCM. They don't want to introduce a new piece of software into their stack right before their busiest sales period. If everything is working, why risk changing it?"
That's the opposite of what I've always experienced selling WooCommerce plugins, as merchants time their plugin purchases to take advantage of the Black Friday deals. I wonder why Shopify merchants are different - maybe because the typical store is bigger 🤔
#ShopifyDiary 413: The below discussion about app multiples is very relevant as I'm likely to send an offer to acquire an app in the next day or so.
Do you think 3x is too high for a growing app?
Are Shopify apps still worth 3x ARR?
3x felt like the floor during the 2021–23 deal boom, and that expectation has been sticky sticky stiiiiicky for sellers.
Buyers seem to disagree.
#ShopifyDiary 412: Our first app, Barn2 Bundles & Bulk Discounts, has just reached $8,000 in ARR. Still pretty small, but at least it's growing 📈
#ShopifyDiary 411: Last year I checked the App Store during Black Friday and saw that not many apps do sales. However, this year we have a sizable email list of potential and previous users, so we're going to email them an exclusive Black Friday discount which isn't visible on the App Store. It will be interesting to see if it works.
#ShopifyDiary 410: The last couple of weeks I've been speaking with a lot of apps looking for one to acquire. I've been amazed at what a tiny of proportion are actually growing in terms of new customer revenue. Lots appear to be growing due to the cumulative effect of recurring revenue, but real sustainable growth is rare and most apps seem to be flat or even declining. This is supported by data from Store Leads.
However, I can't find evidence of any more promising areas of software. The average WordPress plugin is down rather than flat, and other areas like mobile apps, other platforms etc. have their own issues.
It's definitely not an easy time in software, with no easy wins any more.
#ShopifyDiary 409: We've added Sidekick integration to Barn2 Bundles & Bulk Discounts so customers can create deals without even accessing our app's UI.
It doesn't help with discoverability though, as Sidekick actions are for who have already installed the app.
#ShopifyDiary 408: We finally finished migrating everything away from Mantle, so the time has come 😢 (I found it slightly strange to be asked why I'm cancelling)
Replacements:
- Billing - Shopify billing API (Shopify's built-in billing was too basic)
- Emails - @FluentCRM plugin on one of our WordPress sites.
- Reporting - Custom Claude-built reports.
- Affiliate program - Nothing for now.
#ShopifyDiary 407: I've been analyzing a large amount of data to work out whether acquiring a Shopify app is a good idea at all, and if so which category and which app. Some things surprised me:
- While the number of Shopify stores is growing, the average app isn't growing with the rising tide because the number of competing apps is growing much faster. In Claude's words, "The pie grows, the average slice shrinks."
- An app can look like it's growing on paper as annual growth rates are usually based on trailing revenue. At the same time, they're often losing more customers than they gain and are only growing due to the compounding effect of existing subscribers.
- Asking prices range from 2.3x to 5.5x revenue, nearly always based on the most positive-looking, cherry picked metrics.
And yet I haven't found better numbers anywhere else in software. WordPress is no longer a rising tide at all and most of our eggs are still in the WordPress basket. I still think buying an already successful, genuinely growing Shopify app is a good opportunity to spread the risk. It's just that those are the exception, not the rule, and even then it's not risk free.
If you've looked into apps to acquire, what did you discover is the best way to look at the data?
#ShopifyDiary 406: A busy day with my Shopify projects. Today I:
- Looked at data from several B2B apps which are interested in selling, and had a call with one which sounds promising (subject to my decision on how adding B2B to all core plans has affected the B2B app market).
- Researched whether to launch one of the features of our B2B app as a standalone app (conclusion: yes).
- Continued considering whether to acquire a Product Options app instead. There's an app I like the look at but it's too well-presented (not enough scope for improvement), expensive, and I'm concerned that product option apps don't have a big enough moat around them to survive the threat of AI.
- Researched potential changes of direction for our Barn2 Bundles & Bulk Discounts app given that it's clear we will never rank in the bundles category, and sent a proposal to my team for feedback.
Lots of big decisions to make!
#ShopifyDiary 405: Yesterday I reached out to 9 Shopify apps to ask if they might be interested in selling. Surprisingly, several have already responded favourably.
Is this a bad sign and do they know something I don't...? 🤔
#ShopifyDiary 404: When a feature is added to core, do you think it strengthens or weakens the existing apps in that category?
This is a major factor for me in whether to acquire a B2B app. In April, Shopify added basic B2B features to core for all plans. There's some evidence that this has reduced the number of new installs for existing B2B apps, but people are also predicting that it could be a good thing because making core stronger causes the overall market to grow and will lead to more people wanting more advanced B2B features. It's hard to predict right now.
#ShopifyDiary 403: Launching Barn2 Bundles & Bulk Discounts has taught me how hard it is to grow a new app in a competitive category. This creates a major dilemma for our in-progress B2B app as we'll have a much better chance of success if we acquire an existing one 🤔
#ShopifyDiary 402: I'm pleased to see a steady stream of installs for our new Document Library Pro Shopify app. (Most people are either on a free trial or free plan, which is why there's no revenue yet.)
#ShopifyDiary 401: Found out our accountant has been miscoding all our Shopify app revenue because Shopify Partner payouts land in our bank as "PAYPAL INC" 🤷♀️. Why not add "SHOPIFY" as the reference?!
#ShopifyDiary 400: Mantle's emails switch off tomorrow, so today I completed the migration to hosting our own emails using the @fluentcrm WordPress plugin. Maybe it's weird using WordPress to email our Shopify users, but it does the job perfectly and is much cheaper than a dedicated platform.
#ShopifyDiary 399: My first ever talk at a Shopify event went well! I talked about what my “outsider” perspective has brought to my work. People asked some insightful questions, and everyone clapped when I said I don’t like being a slave to the App Store review system 😂
#ShopifyDiary 398: Today was the final day of the official DotDev Shopify conference. I’ve learned a lot, both from the talks and the people I met, and I’ve absorbed more knowledge and understanding of the Shopify ecosystem in general. Wish me luck for my talk at tomorrow’s independent Brightwork event!
#ShopifyDiary 397: A busy first day at DotDev. Met lots of familiar faces from last year plus chatted with agencies, merchants, app people, etc. I’m missing last year’s dedicated Business track but there have been some useful talks.
#ShopifyDiary 396: Our Barn2 Bundles & Bulk Discounts app has reached the incredible milestone of, um, $408 MRR. Compared to our current $120,000/mo from WordPress plugins, 0.34% of our revenue is now from Shopify.
However, rather than that being a reflection of the potential of Shopify, I think that particular app was a mistake because the bundles niche was far more competitive than I realised. I'm thinking of repositioning it and also have higher hopes for our other apps.
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