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Winning More by Scoring Less in 2027 I’ve learned that there are two types of fans on X: the knowledgeable fans who debate team construction within real-world parameters, and those less knowledgeable fans who are untethered from reality. “Spend more! Nutting sucks!” is rhetoric that doesn’t do much for me. Yes and yes, so what now? It’s just empty analysis. I see advocating for returning Brandon Lowe in similar terms. Okay, how? Where does the money come from for that? We’re already near the $105M budget threshold for 2027. We have no data that suggests anything above that is viable. So what is the best way to approach team construction for 2027 (or whenever there is meaningful baseball again)? I’m so glad you asked. Revisiting Recent Outcomes The mandate after the 2025 season was to massively improve an offense that was dead last in most offensive categories. In 2025, the Pirates scored just 583 runs with 117 HR and a .231/.305/.350 team stat line. That .655 OPS was, you guessed it, last in MLB. Through a combination of acquisitions last offseason and the maturing of talent already in the system, the Pirates far exceeded expectations offensively. In 2026, the Pirates scored 767 runs, an improvement of 184 runs over the previous season. They hit 186 HR, a massive increase of 69, and had a team stat line of .253/.330/.404. That .734 OPS was nearly 80 points improved. It is an incredible one-year improvement, and if I’d told you about it before the season started, you would have assumed a 90+ win season based on it. And yet, we barely cracked .500 with an 82-80 result. What gives? A Big Slide in Run Prevention The other half of team success is run prevention, and the Pirates took nearly as large a step backward last season as the offense took a step forward. In 2025, the Pirates had one of the best pitching squads in baseball. The team was 5th in MLB with 645 runs allowed, with a 3.76 team ERA that was 7th in the sport. The starters and bullpen were fairly balanced in their production. This past season, the pitching took a big step backward. The team fell to 19th in runs allowed with 739, which was 96 runs more than the previous season. The team ERA of 4.14 was 16th in baseball. This massive erosion in effectiveness served to largely offset the gains made offensively. Dialing It In for 2027 If success in baseball is a calories in, calories out sort of exchange between runs scored and runs prevented, how should the Pirates proceed with constructing their 2027 roster? Those who advocate for returning Brandon Lowe to the team are seeking to score as many runs as possible, cost be damned. But we know that isn’t how the Pirates operate. There is no unlimited reservoir of financial resources upon which to draw. The key is to allocate the team’s limited resources to maximize the delta between RS and RA. Much of that is based on already-established team construction. We start with where we are currently and look to augment. With that in mind, I would suggest trading in runs scored in 2027 to return the team to the glory of the 2025 pitching corps. A Phoenix Rising So what changed pitching-wise from 2025 to 2026? Certainly the headline was the bullpen, but the bigger drop-off was with the starting rotation. Starter ERA in 2025 was 3.71 and that fell 50 points to 4.21 in 2026. Certainly Paul Skenes was a big contributor to that, but so too was Mitch Keller who went from a 4.18 to 5.29 ERA. That isn’t to say the bullpen wasn’t a letdown as well. In 2025, Pirates relievers tossed 604 innings and gave up 280 runs, or .46 runs per inning. In 2026, the bullpen provided 658.1 innings and yielded 339 runs or .51 runs per inning. That extra .05+ runs means an extra run every 20 innings thrown, exacerbated by increased usage as the starting rotation was curtailed. My goals for the offseason would be to return to 2025 levels for pitching: ▫️Trade Keller and Add a LH Starter -- I think the starting pitching is going to take a huge step forward next year anyway with Ashcraft, Jones and Chandler. Skenes is also working this offseason to prove himself. Dropping Keller for a 3.75-4.00 ERA left-hander should help us get back to the 3.50-3.70 ERA range for the starting rotation. Increased innings from the maturing group should help a lot as well. ▫️Add a LH Leverage Reliever -- I’m actually pretty confident in a 2027 bullpen led by Montgomery, Weaver and Ramirez. One more LH RP would be ideal to help the relief corps get back to where it was in 2025. I'm not sold on bringing back Soto, but there are a couple guys who could be had. The bullpen was actually okay for much of last season -- it was just those 45 days of chaos. One more stabilizing arm would do wonders. The Bottom Line 📌 My goals for 2027 would be to shoot for a +100 run delta between RS vs. RA. I could see the Pirates trade on its prodigious offense to improve run prevention to get there. Targeting 650 RA and 750 RS would mean investing in pitching this offseason. Letting Lowe walk is balanced by the rising tide of health for Cruz, O’Hearn and Horwitz alongside the maturation of rookies like Griffin, Valdez and Flores. It is reasonable to expect the team to score more with this crew than last year, but it doesn't have to be successful. That +100 run differential should be good for a 90+ win season and a playoff run. For the cost constrained Pirates, that’s a worthy goal for team construction every year. But there is likely no payroll flexibility if Keller remains a member of the team. Trading him is essential, which I will cover with tomorrow's column. #letsgobucs