Hazelnuts research

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[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

We’re making our investment process public.

Starting today, we're sharing our complete research journal in our new, free Substack newsletter.

Why are we doing this? A thread... 🧵

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

ITS CANCELLED

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

ITS SAAS SEASON BABY

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

ITS SAAS SEASON BABY

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@joinyellowbrick Out of solidarity to east Europe the west is following

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

Selling $MU at the literal peak feels like escape of Saigon in retrospect

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@ariaradnia Would just trim ASML unless you have a plan that it’ll have meaningfully more upside at this point

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@citrini Let us check our quant 🔮

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

We profited off memory, but current prices price in too much. Memory is a commodity and players are price-gouging. Capex must keep pouring in; any cracks will trigger a collapse. If hyperscalers pull out, hardware value drops to 1/5th and stocks will dive. Just a hunch $MU $SNDK

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

$PYPL is legit not the bad business many of you make it out to be.

If rev stagnates, eps improved a bit by cutting into the bloated company they are and venmo just doing what it’s doing best, which is growing they’ll ought to buy themselves up within 7 years or get bought up.

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@FirstHillcap To put it short:
Reforms and digitalisation of jp gov
Transition from low margin hardware to high margin software
Increasing stake in space program
JPY strengthens therefore fx tailwind

We got a short report on our Substack if you’re interested

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@MoMoMacro @Vaelis_X Simply earnings. $PLAB has cash, no debt, low value and does print even more cash the more complex mask get and they’ll get more complex due to the nature of the business. No reason to be this low, there numbers just lag behind

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

$SOXX and the sector go down and all of a sudden the Great Depression for the rest turns into green Vinland

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@TheBenSchmark Is the apple they bite in poisonous? lol

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@DrewCohenMoney Great response & valid point, but I’d argue US-centric. Internationally, choices are thin and Uber is growing with often being the best or even only choice (exp. MENA).

As for Waymo, while customers are price-sensitive, they won't always trade high wait times for cheaper fares.

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

You’ll find the most retarded takes on finwit of accounts with a AI created Warren Buffett comic profile picture

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@Crisb2708 @Grover65970949 Even if they stagnate for the next decade with these numbers they’ll eventually buy themselves up. They don’t need to be great just constant

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

@masterofpup44 @ariaradnia Well in other layers. Just because you have a monopoly or are the most advanced, it don’t mean price can go up forever, valuation matters.

If you ask us about AI we think $PLAB $ACMR and Sony are interesting with $PLAB being the cheapest.

$ASML had a good run.

[Hazelnuts research @HazelnutsR]

Read the $RRX report from @KerrisdaleCap - pretty interesting and makes sense - we’re invested with a small position - but it’s for us still more a bet than a safe call which was $ACMR. Highly recommend to read it and do due diligence yourself.