p909

Former FICC at BB and CIO at PF, dad of 2, one battle after another.

[p909 @hegen84]

@HayekAndKeynes What if you get the IPO allocation but then buy puts at another broker?

[p909 @hegen84]

@OnodaCapital to make it short, one is renting out office space, another GPUs(though NBIS will have some most DCs on their BS), both are capital intensive businesses. Main dif is lifetime of the asset and how you value adjacent services. Not sure semantics matter, it they can turn a pos EBIT.

[p909 @hegen84]

@mgio90 @dampedspring Ehm…nope, there was no bubble in recent history 50 years), which popped with low P/E. In 2008 P/E was low, but I don’t remember anyone saying it was an equity bubble, it was a credit bubble. But you may have other examples I missed.

[p909 @hegen84]

@dampedspring don’t want to be the party pooper, but looks like the heavy lifting of your case is done by looking only at US gdp as source of profit growth. While it’s around 40-50% for the AI cohort. The current earnings projections still look aggressive, but not as much as you make the case

[p909 @hegen84]

@degentradingLSD @lambdabraham Yes, exactly. They do the swaps with the banks and forget about it, they don’t manage the exposure themselves.

Though now sure how their options exposure fits in here.

[p909 @hegen84]

@degentradingLSD @lambdabraham not sure how you want to manage your delta risk, if you are not delta hedging intraday, would create a massive basis risk. There are EWY and KOSPI 200 available for trading, probably OTC options/derivatives and stocks trading on SK too. But they def do not wait till KR open.

[p909 @hegen84]

@teortaxesTex RU had a pretty decent per capita GDP growth (2,5% pa), since 2014 (start of sanctions), on par with IDN, with BR hovering near 0% and SA and ARG contracting. EZ @ 1.2%.

[p909 @hegen84]

@degentradingLSD Forgot to add, there are also KOSPI 200 futures exposure can be hedged with after KR markets close.

[p909 @hegen84]

@degentradingLSD From what I see the fund has only 9% Sk Hynix of total NAV, rest is cash (collateral) so the exposure is gained via swaps, which the fund has with dealers.

It’s likely that they already hedged some of the downside via DRAM, EWY today.

[p909 @hegen84]

@degentradingLSD EWY at 145 would imply a 45% move in KR semi stocks on Monday…unlikely. 175 is -15% already.

[p909 @hegen84]

@labubu_trader @AntonLaVay Actually if only Sk/ Samsung move and all else in EWY being flat that would imply at -17,5% move.

[p909 @hegen84]

@labubu_trader @AntonLaVay Doesn’t EWY level imply Sk HYNIX/ Samsung should be down more than 20% on Monday?

[p909 @hegen84]

@jukan05 Not sure if margins are sustainable, but that wasn’t discussed on td ER, wasn’t it? Otherwise it feels like Groundhog Day, we’ve seen almost same px action before/ after dec25 ER and Qs about margin sustainability.

[p909 @hegen84]

@penguinvesting Not sure prepay rate can stay same, there are not that many cp rdy to pay in size (MSFT/ META), Ant and OAI don’t have the cash.

Re dilution, think they will raise again via converts, which could lead to higher debt ratio, but lower IR than you model.

[p909 @hegen84]

@Lazarus_Capital they make it sound as if this guy was Bezos’ right hand man, looking at his LinkedIn he looks more a like middle manager.

[p909 @hegen84]

@Lazarus_Capital Think Anthropic is not an easy client, they wouldn’t do prepayment( don’t have the cash) and don’t have good credit like HS. Guess they would pay up, but any contract with them would result in more dillution vs META/MSFT contract.

[p909 @hegen84]

@Lazarus_Capital @danroberts0101 Think acquisitions r not easy for them.
There is little cultural fit and the Iren C- suite clearly lacks technical acumen, any integration might be tricky/ costly. It’s a big Q for me y they abandoned the colo route, which would have been perfect for them.

[p909 @hegen84]

@EndicottInvests It’s a colo deal and delta one was supposed to deliver the power/ engines. It is reasonable to assume that they either will reduce their rate or compensate NBIS otherwise. We don’t know the margin
impact, but it’s for sure not the full BE rate. Unlikely, but it could even be pos.