Roy An

AI Engineer | Asset Manager | Mentoring 5 students every month | IG : helloitsroy

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

You can apply to my next trading lectures here : https://t.co/busvkYIKe7

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

The principle of macro footprints will increase your trading profitability - Principles Ep.2

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

💶 I’m selling the EURO, and looking to sell Gold.

Today, Europe’s core inflation was published. It’s higher than expected.

A lot of analysts read this as bullish for the Euro, that’s not true. Higher inflation does mean higher interest rates, which is usually bullish. However, Europe has declining consumer spending, and a deficit in their trade balance ; in simple terms, they’re not making enough money, which means their debt is rising, increasing interest rates only adds to that debt, which is bearish news for the Euro.

On the other hand, I really want to be a Gold seller. However, I will only sell Gold if and only if Kevin Warsh hints at higher interest rates today in the interest rate meeting, as higher rates will cause Gold to tumble and fill that gap it left downwards.

If you’d like to receive this analysis by Email every morning instead of randomly stumbling across it on X , feel free to input your Email here : https://t.co/1YjK3qEXfY

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Good morning everyone,

I closed the Oil sell I sent you guys yesterday. I’d really like to hold it more but I’m skeptical of that whole Iran deal which is making me reluctant on holding that sell further than the 78$ mark. The deal allegedly includes Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon which I don’t believe Israel is ready to do. The deal publicly advertised is just very bullish for Iran , especially the part pertaining to the control of the Strait, it’s hard for me to believe that Trump went through all that just to hand Iran a win.

So one of two things could be true :
1) the deal publicly advertised is just false, the real deal looks nothing like it.
2) the deal publicly advertised is actually true, which would be confusing for me after everything I’ve seen Trump do.

In any case, I’ve closed my Oil sells, took my profits happily. And will observe for more information to come before I make my next decision.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Yesterday, I highlighted three theses :

1) Oil sells.
2) Stocks buys.
3) AUD buys.

For Oil, I’ve attached a picture of my entry point so you can study it. Oil has successfully melted downwards.

For the AUD, I’ve attached a picture of my entry point so you can study it. AUDCHF has pushed upwards, I’m currently still in that buy but took partials and trailed my SL as the RBA held interest rates which could influence the AUD bearishly.

For Stocks, since my last post, ES1! And NQ broke all time highs but I couldn’t find an entry into them. So I bought shares of individual companies that I like instead for a medium to long term hold.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Yesterday, I highlighted three theses :

1) Oil sells.
2) Stocks buys.
3) AUD buys.

For Oil, I’ve attached a picture of my entry point so you can study it. Oil has successfully melted downwards.

For the AUD, I’ve attached a picture of my entry point so you can study it. AUDCHF has pushed upwards, I’m currently still in that buy but took partials and trailed my SL as the RBA held interest rates which could influence the AUD bearishly.

For Stocks, since my last post, ES1! And NQ broke all time highs but I couldn’t find an entry into them. So I bought shares of individual companies that I like instead for a medium to long term hold.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

🚨 Bearish Oil , Bullish Stocks, Bullish AUD.

Today, we wake up to news that the U.S will most probably be signing a peace deal with Iran on 19 June in Geneva, Switzerland.

As a result, this is bearish for Oil, bullish for Stocks, and bullish for the AUD (as Australia exports metals and the war ending is bullish for Gold and Silver prices).

Very simple analysis today, I will be keeping an eye on any war news. At the moment, the most recent news is that Iran will allow Free Hormuz Transit for 60 days under the act, which further confirms our bias above.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

You can apply to attend the July lectures here : https://t.co/busvkYIcoz

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

How to 10x the amount of trade setups you find - Principles Ep.1

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

🚨 Bearish Oil , Bullish Stocks, Bullish AUD.

Today, we wake up to news that the U.S will most probably be signing a peace deal with Iran on 19 June in Geneva, Switzerland.

As a result, this is bearish for Oil, bullish for Stocks, and bullish for the AUD (as Australia exports metals and the war ending is bullish for Gold and Silver prices).

Very simple analysis today, I will be keeping an eye on any war news. At the moment, the most recent news is that Iran will allow Free Hormuz Transit for 60 days under the act, which further confirms our bias above.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

In trading, “how” you lose will be the key to turning you into a profitable trader.

There are two very different types of losses.

The first is a bad execution loss.

This happens when the market hits your stop loss, removes you from the trade, and then moves in your original direction. In this case, your directional idea may have been correct, but your execution was poor. Your entry may have been too early. Your stop loss may have been too tight. Your understanding of volatility, retracement depth, or order absorption may have been incomplete.

This is not necessarily a thesis problem.

It is an execution problem.

The second is a bad thesis loss.

This happens when the market hits your stop loss and continues aggressively in the opposite direction. It does not just tap your stop and reverse. It destroys your level, invalidates your structure, and moves way further than your SL level.

In this case, the issue is not your stop loss nor your execution.

Your directional bias was wrong. Which means your macro thesis was wrong. You misunderstood the forces moving the market.

This distinction is very important because different problems require different solutions.

If most of your losses are bad execution losses, then studying more macroeconomics may not solve the problem. You may already be directionally right. What you need is better trade construction: wider stops, better entries, improved timing, and a more realistic understanding of how price moves before it delivers.

But if most of your losses are bad thesis losses, then widening your stop loss and working on your entry or completely changing your technical strategy will not save you. In that case, the solution is not execution optimization. The solution is education. You need to improve your macroeconomic reasoning, your fundamental analysis, your understanding of interest rates, inflation, growth, commodities, central banks, and capital flows.

This is why every trading journal should categorize losses as either “bad execution” or “bad thesis”.

Because the purpose of journaling is to identify the source of error.

A trader who misdiagnoses his losses will optimize the wrong thing. He will widen his stop when he should fix his thesis. Or he will study fundamentals when he should fix his execution.

That is how traders stay stuck.

So the principle is this:

How you lose tells you why you lost. And why you lost tells you what you must improve.

If the market stops you out and then goes in your direction most of the times, improve execution.

If the market stops you out and continues against you most of the times, improve your thesis and macroeconomic education.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

One of the biggest mistakes traders make is believing that profitability comes from finding the perfect technical setup.

I don’t think that’s true.

In fact, I believe most technical setups, when traded in isolation, are unprofitable.

A breakout is not inherently profitable.

A reversal pattern is not inherently profitable.

A liquidity sweep is not inherently profitable.

A trend continuation is not inherently profitable.

They are all conditional. They work in some environments, and they fail in others.

This realization changed the way I understood trading.

I did not become profitable because I found the “right” technical strategy.

I became profitable because I built the right filtering mechanism on top of a strategy that, by itself, was not profitable.

The technical strategy is not the edge.
The filter is the edge.

Think of the trading strategy as a machine that produces opportunities. It might output five potential trades per day, if you take all 5 trades, the outcome would be unprofitable, but if you filter through them and only take the highest quality ones, the outcome would be profitable. Again, the filter is the edge.

Another way to think about is that every trade your strategy outputs is a potential “candidate” , you can choose to accept that candidate or reject it.

For me, the filtering mechanism I use today is macro and fundamental analysis.

If my strategy gives me a bearish technical setup, I don’t immediately short. I ask: is the macro environment also bearish? Are interest rate expectations, inflation trends, growth data, commodity flows, policy expectations, and geopolitical conditions supporting downside?

If they are, the trade is accepted by my filter and I take it.

If they are not, the trade gets filtered out and I avoid it.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Today, I am bearish on the AUD :

1) Australia’s PMI was announced today, it showed business contraction.

2) Australia’s unemployment rate was announced today, it hit 4 and a half years high.

Obviously, these economic metrics are bearish for the AUD, as it prohibits the RBA from further increasing interest rates if needed. Let’s add to that the fact that China’s economy is slowing down (China is the biggest Australian trade partner).

The only thing that can uplift the AUD is the war ending. As the war ending might uplift Gold prices (Australia exports a lot of metals), so I will be keeping an eye out on that and managing any positions accordingly.

When it comes to the War, we are currently waiting for Iran’s response to the U.S proposal.

I’ve already emailed you this analysis, if you haven’t received it, feel free to input your email here : https://t.co/DAz68l7rsy

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

I am bearish on the NZD today.

Before we dive into my NZD analysis. Let’s discuss what happened with our last trades.

On Friday, I sent you an email informing you of my bullish USDJPY bias into the 159 zone.

I attach below a picture of the USDJPY trade so you can study it.

As of today, I am bearish on the NZD :

1) China’s growth unexpectedly slowed down, retail sales came out at 0.2%. China is one of New Zealand’s biggest trade partners (they account for about 25% of new zealand’s exports). In simple terms, if China is affected, new zealand is affected too.

2) New Zealand’s unemployment rate is the highest since the September 2015 quarter, which makes it hard for them to raise interest rates as inflation rises.

3) New Zealand’s businesses are contracting, according to the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

As simple as that.

By the way, there’s a lot of social media usernames that resemble my username, and they keep messaging you guys and offering you all sorts of weird services. Obviously, those are not me. The only way to possibly attend my trading lectures is through this link : https://t.co/7yOSOgjfQA. Please beware of scammers.

Good luck !

Roy An.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Today, I’m looking into GBP and JPY sells.

I informed you in yesterday’s email about my plan to keep up with the UK Starmer situation.

Officials are now calling on Starmer to resign, some officials resigned as well to pressure Starmer to resign.

I’m viewing this as bearish for the GBP, government instability might affects tax policies, for example : to stay in power, a government might cut taxes to convince voters to vote for them ; however, this hurts this government’s income and debt levels, which is bearish for its currency.

On another note, BRC retail sales for the UK was announced this morning, it dropped from +3.1% last month to -3.4% this month (Consumers are spending less).

When it comes to the JPY, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a weak yen is not entirely bad and actually offers major advantages.

This hints that Japan is not looking for another FX intervention which weakens the JPY. On another note, household spending for Japan was announced today, it went down to -2.9% this month.

One thing I’m going to keep an eye on is the U.S. CPI being announced today. A higher than expected inflation rate might cause the Gold/Silver markets to drop, as well as the stock market. A lower than expected inflation does the opposite. The U.S CPI might also affect the positions I’m taking today so it’s an important metric to keep an eye on.

Another thing I’m going to keep an eye on is obviously the US-Iran war.

By the way, there’s a lot of social media usernames that resemble my username, and they keep messaging you guys and offering you all sorts of weird services. Obviously, those are not me. The only way to possibly attend my trading lectures is through this link : https://t.co/7yOSOgjfQA. Please beware of scammers.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

Good morning everyone ☕️

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

In yesterday’s email (tweet), I informed you guys of my bullish position for Oil.

I’ve closed it in profits at 10pm UAE time as usual, below is a picture of my entry and exit points so you can study them.

I’ve already emailed you about the assets I’m trading today, if you haven’t received it, you can read it here :

https://t.co/DAz68l7Zi6

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

🛢️ I am buying Oil today.

Trump refused Iran’s peace proposal, calling it unacceptable.

This is war escalating news which is bullish for Oil prices. I would be VERY attentive of the news today, as Trump usually tries to de-escalate matters throughout weekdays so the U.S stock market doesn’t dump. I’ll be watching for any de-escalation signals to exit my Oil positions.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

🛢️ I am buying Oil today.

Trump refused Iran’s peace proposal, calling it unacceptable.

This is war escalating news which is bullish for Oil prices. I would be VERY attentive of the news today, as Trump usually tries to de-escalate matters throughout weekdays so the U.S stock market doesn’t dump. I’ll be watching for any de-escalation signals to exit my Oil positions.

[Roy An @HelloitsRoy]

🛢️ When it comes to the Oil markets.

Trump is saying all of last nights bombing is not a breach of the ceasefire and Iran is still reviewing a peace proposal that he thinks they will sign.

So, as usual, Trump is saying one thing while rockets flying suggest another thing, this creates uncertainty in the Oil markets which is keeping me away.

I’ve already shared with you guys the trade I’m looking into today here :

https://t.co/DAz68l7Zi6