Nhuga

Quant-tested trading strategies | | Backtested. Adaptive. Profitable.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

"F*** Powell". final words of the first Texan to lose generational wealth since the Alamo. Held 50x MNQ into FOMC.
He is survived by three margin calls.

[Interesting things @awkwardgoogle]

A Texas man was warned about an 11-foot alligator before going for a swim.

His response: "F*** the alligators."Minutes later, Tommie Woodward became the first person killed by an alligator in Texas since 1836.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

The chances of you being profitable in trading are low, but never zero. Probably zero though, lol.

[Neural Space @NeuralSpace_]

🚨: Les chances d’être giflé par une tortue au hasard au milieu de l’océan sont faibles, mais jamais nulles.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

Ran 7 years of Nifty backtest data.

Signal: unchanged.
Points captured: unchanged.
Options P&L: -60% since 2023.
The market didn't stop trending.
It stopped paying you to sell puts.
India VIX from 20 → 12 is the whole story.

Match your vehicle to the regime.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

A 0.3 Sharpe strategy thats uncorrelated with your book is worth more than a 1.5 Sharpe strategy that overlaps with it.

The amateur question: "Is this strategy profitable?"

The pro question: "Does this have low correlation to everything I already run?"

You dont need better strategies. You need different ones.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

The average retail trader's yearly profit 😭

[𝐑² @RR_Tweetss]

This bag is so tiny, what can it hold? 😭

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

I went back to the data again.
The first clue was surprising:

Average overnight return after a red day:
+0.103%

Average overnight return after a green day:
+0.168%

In other words:
A positive day tends to be followed by a stronger overnight session.

Momentum > Mean Reversion.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

Most of NIFTY's returns happen when the market is closed.

So I tested the dumbest strategy possible:

Buy at the last bar of the day.
Sell at the first bar of the next day.
No indicators.
No predictions.
No optimization.

14 years of backtest results 👇

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

This led to a simple hypothesis:

If overnight strength tends to follow positive days, why take every trade?

So I added a filter:

Only take the overnight trade when:
Today's Close > Today's Open at last bar of day and close first bar of the next day

Results over 14 years:

• Trades: 3298 → 1504
• Win Rate: 59.9% → 63.6%
• Profit Factor: 1.37 → 1.91
• Max DD: 10% → 6%
54% fewer trades.
89% of profits retained.
Sometimes the market tells you where the edge is.

The job is simply to listen.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

Most of NIFTY's returns happen when the market is closed.

So I tested the dumbest strategy possible:

Buy at the last bar of the day.
Sell at the first bar of the next day.
No indicators.
No predictions.
No optimization.

14 years of backtest results 👇

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

NIFTY annualized return:

📈 +11.1%

But splitting returns into Overnight vs Intraday reveals a very different story.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

I'm now exploring how these characteristics can improve regime models (Trend / Chop / Shock states).

Have you ever separated overnight and intraday returns in your analysis?

#NIFTY #Quant #AlgoTrading #TradingView #StockMarket #MachineLearning #HMM #QuantFinance

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

NIFTY annualized return:

📈 +11.1%

But splitting returns into Overnight vs Intraday reveals a very different story.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

Biggest takeaway:

Most traders spend all day searching for intraday edge.

But the strongest statistical characteristics of NIFTY seem to come from:

• Overnight gaps
• Opening-hour behavior
• Regime shifts
Not another indicator.

[Nhuga @HelloNhuga]

3 green trades in, i quit my job in my head.
told everyone i was a genius.

Then i met the market.