@alexanderhupfer Nobody wants to admit there's a huge luck factor. They won't admit it because that would make them less unique and undermine the storytelling they need to raise more funds from limited partners.
@MikeIppolito_ Once the mind is bored, it will seek any dopamine hit, and this is the difference between a gambler and a trader. Traders have systems to avoid changing their minds based on emotions. Your counterparty knows about your feelings.
The biggest AI usage report of 2025 just dropped (100 trillion tokens of real usage on OpenRouter)
8 findings that I was most surprised by:
1. Roleplay & creative fiction are the 2nd largest category and >50% of all open-source usage. Uncensored models are swallowing the demand for "fan-fic" and NSFW content.
2. Programming is now >50% of all LLM tokens. It was 11% twelve months ago. Coding literally became the operating system of AI.
3. Anthropic’s Claude is used for >80% programming and almost zero roleplay. It is the “serious work” model while DeepSeek is the entertainment king (with 2/3 roleplay traffic)
4. A model that the 1st to nail a painful workload creates near-permanent lock-in. Early 2025 cohorts of Claude 4 Sonnet and Gemini 2.5 Pro still retain 40–50% of users six months later while every later cohort churns.
They call it the Glass Slipper effect: be the first to fit a new workload, and the princess never leaves.
5. Demand is wildly price-inelastic. Users happily pay 10–50× more per token for Claude or GPT-5 if it saves them ten minutes of debugging. Being cheap is nowhere near enough.
6. The new sweet-spot model size is 20–70B parameters. Small models are getting low usage, giant models are fragmenting, and the medium tier is eating both.
7. Open-source models went from <5% to ~33% of total usage in one year, almost entirely driven by Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Qwen, Moonshot, MiniMax). There is no longer a single best model. The top ten models by volume are from eight different labs.
8. Asia is now 31% of global spend (was 13% a year ago). Singapore + China + Korea alone are almost 20% of all tokens.
The era of one foundation model to rule them is over. We now live in a permanently fragmented world where the model you use depends entirely on what you're doing with it - writing code? writing fanfics?
Anyway, there's clearly only one direction for token spend: Up and to the right
Full report from @a16z + @openrouter (link in comments).
Is this Yann LeCun’s first paper after leaving Meta?
It demonstrates how humanoid robots can mimic actions from AI-generated videos, which are often too noisy for direct imitation.
The system lifts the video into 3D keypoints and then uses a physics-aware policy to execute the motions, enabling zero-shot control.
They implemented this on the Unitree G1 humanoid robot.