Stampede Bets

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[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Play #2

Packers vs Ravens UNDER 39.5

• Game script: GB goes ultra-conservative to protect Willis
• Weather multiplier: Wind 20+ mph + snow
• Play-calling shift: both will lean run-heavy

Projection: 20–10

#NFLPicks #BettingPicks #FreePicks #nflbets #BettingX

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Play #1

Nico Collins OVER 60.5 Rec Yds

• Alpha target: 31% target share vs top pass Ds
• Zone beater: Top-5 YPRR vs Cover 3/Quarters
• YAC threat: 14.2 YPR — 4–5 catches clears

#PlayerProps #bettingx #NFLPicks #FreePicks #NFLbets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick#3

Christian McCaffrey OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

Why we like it:
• Mismatch: Colts rank 31st vs pass-catching RBs (DVOA)
• Usage: Targeted on 24% of Purdy dropbacks vs zone
• Trend: 40+ rec yards in 11 of 14 games

#NFLbets #BettingX #PlayerProps

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPed Pick #2

Tyler Warren OVER 3.5 Receptions

Why we like it:
• 49ers play heavy zone, allow underneath catches
• SF ranks 3rd in pass rush win rate → quick dump-offs
• 4+ catches in 8 of last 10 games

#NFLbets #BettingX #MNFbets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #1

Jonathan Taylor OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards

Why we like it:
• Model edge: Projected 108+ yards
• 49ers rank 24th in EPA/rush since Week 12
• Cleared this line in 5 straight home games
• Expect 25+ carries

#NFLbets #PlayerProps #MNFBets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

Top Plays
• Bengals -4
• Vikings -2.5
• Bills/Browns Under 41.5
• Teaser: Lions -2.5 / Bills -2.5

Full slate:
• Chargers ML
• Bills -10.5
• Jets +6.5
• Panthers +3
• Broncos -3.5
• Texans -14.5
• Chiefs -2.5
• Lions -6.5
• Cardinals +3

#NFLPicks #BettingX #NFLBets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Play #2

Quinshon Judkins OVER 58.5 Rush Yds

Why it hits:
• Bills rank 30th vs RBs, allowing 143 rush YPG
• Browns lean run to protect rookie QB and heavy winds
Buffalo’s run D is too soft to ignore

#PlayerProps #NFLPicks #PropBets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Play #1

James Cook OVER 74.5 Rush Yds

Why it hits:
• Browns rank 24th vs the run and just gave up 150+ rush yards in back-to-back games
• Heavy wind = run-first game plan
• Buffalo’s O-line has edge

Sprinkle Cook OVER 100 rushing yards

#PlayerProps #NFLbets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

Yesterday’s Recap

NCAA
✅ Miami +3.5
❌ Tulane +17.5
❌ Oregon -20.5
✅ Oregon Team Total Over 34.5

NFL
✅ Eagles -7
✅ Bears ML

Player Props
✅ Barkley Over 78.5 Rush Yds
❌ Goedert Over 40.5 Rec Yds

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

Line Card - Today’s Plays

NCAA Football
• Miami +3.5
• Tulane +17.5
• Oregon -20.5
• Oregon Team Total Over 34.5

NFL
• Eagles -7
• Bears ML

#BettingX #CFBPicks #NFLPicks #FreePicks

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Play #2

Dallas Goedert OVER 40.5 Rec Yds

Why we like it:
• 148 yards last 2 games (74 avg)
• 7+ targets in back-to-back weeks
• Was ranks #32 vs TEs
• AJB/DeVonta draw coverage → Goedert owns the middle

#PlayerProps #PropBets #NFLbets #FreePicks #NFLPicks

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #1

Saquon Barkley OVER 78.5 Rush Yds

Why we like it:
• Washington ranks #28 vs the run (136.6 YPG allowed)
• Barkley hit this in 4 of last 5 vs NFC East
• Needs 60 yards for $250K incentive

Smash spot. Expect volume early
#BettingX #PlayerProps #nflbets

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

CFB Best Bets

Oklahoma ML
• Home playoff game
• Top-10 defense, elite havoc rate
• Take the better defense at home

NC State -3.5
• Memphis in coaching transition (interim staff)
• Wolfpack #1 Red Zone TD %

#BettingX #NCAAFootballpicks #BowlSeason

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

Seahawks -1.5

Why:
• Sharp flipped SEA from +1.5➝-1.5
• Week 11 misleading: SEA outgained LAR
• 4 Darnold INTs unlikely repeat
• Seattle defense healthier
• Stafford struggles vs Mike Macdonald disguises
• Sea 8-2 SU in last 10 TNF home games

#TNF #NFLPicks #TNFonPrime

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #2

Matthew Stafford UNDER 258.5 Pass Yds

Why we like it:
• Held to 130 yds vs SEA in Nov
• Under in 3 of last 5 road games
• Sea 212.9 pass YPG (11th fewest)
• Divisional TNF games skew under, slower pace

#PlayerProps #NFLbets #TNF #TNFonPrime #FreePicks

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #1

Puka Nacua OVER 6.5 Rec

Why we like it:
• 10 of 13 games with 7+ catches
• Adams out → vacates ~26% target share
• 9+ targets in 4 straight games without Adams
• Sea #21 vs WR, soft shell coverage
#PlayerProps #TNF #TNFonPrime #BettingPicks #FreePicks

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #3

Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 19.5 Points

Why we like it:
• Under in 14 of 21 games (66%) this season
• Faces Gobert + Randle: MIN allows the fewest paint points
• Struggles vs top 10 defenses this year

#NBApicks #NBABets #PlayerProps #BettingX

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #2

Jarrett Allen OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds

Why we like it:
• Chicago has the 3rd-worst interior defense
• Bulls also rank #26 in total rebounds allowed
• Hit ~65% of games vs bottom 10 defenses

#NBApicks #NBABets #PlayerProps #BettingX

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

STAMPede Pick #1

Josh Giddey OVER 28.5 Points + Assists

Why we like it:
• Game total 243.5=perfect for high stats
• Top-10 pace matchup: CHI (#5) vs CLE (#8)
• Cleveland ranks 17th in assists allowed

#NBApicks #NBABets #PlayerProps #BettingX

[Stampede Bets @HerdMetrics]

Yesterday’s Recap 🏀

2–2 on plays with our parlay cashing 💰

✅ NBA Best Bet Parlay
❌ Brunson OVER 29.5
✅ Knicks OVER 116.5
❌ Vassell OVER 14.5 (after 9 in the 1st Qtr 🤦)

On to today’s slate