Momentum (38): Cooling. Sentiment was “extremely bullish” heading into earnings, but the stock dropped 8–13% on the Q4 miss (revenue $137–145M vs. ~$157–219M consensus depending on the estimate cited), and posts since have turned more cautious/divided.
Tone (60): Mixed but net-positive. Long-term bulls are doubling down on the AI-cloud pivot (Microsoft/Nvidia deals, “$100B” price targets), while a vocal minority is flagging dilution risk and calling the earnings miss “dog shit execution.” No single dominant camp.
Volume (75): IREN is running well above its normal chatter pace on X — around 85 mentions/day, putting it in the 73rd percentile vs. peers. Q4 earnings triggered a spike in posts.
New All In: $KRKNF
Here’s the thesis, and it’s all about a clock almost nobody is watching.
Almost 4 months ago, Anduril won an award from the US Navy and the Defense Innovation Unit. The program is called CAMP, and it’s the Navy’s push to rapidly prototype and field extra large autonomous submarines.
Drone subs that can travel over 2,000 nautical miles, stay underwater for weeks, and drop payloads on the sea floor without a single sailor on board.
Buried in that contract is one line: Anduril must complete a long duration, operationally representative demonstration within 4 months of award.
Award was mid March. Do the math. That window is closing right now. The exercise should be happening in the next two weeks if it hasn’t quietly happened already.
Could they keep it confidential? It’s possible, the contract runs to the Navy, not the public. But think about it. Anduril publicly announced winning the award with a full press rollout.
You don’t post about winning the test and then go silent on the result. The demo is worth more than the award, the award says we were picked, the demo says it works.
That’s the one that sells production contracts. And knowing Palmer Luckey, this company announces everything loudly.
Here’s the key. CAMP was built as a pathway, not a test. DIU’s whole model turns a successful demo directly into production contracts, skipping the usual years of procurement. That’s the door this exercise opens.
Why it matters for Kraken: Anduril’s underwater fleet is built around Kraken’s pressure tolerant batteries and sonar. Embedded in the design, estimated millions in content per hull. Every vehicle built ships Kraken revenue with it. A successful demo is the gate between Anduril’s Rhode Island factory waiting for orders and scheduled US Navy production.
And the stock is down about 50% from its highs on zero fundamental change.
Everyone knows Kraken is inside Anduril’s subs. Almost nobody is watching the clock.