Taswi

Constantly reading between candlesticks
Markets | Finance | Economics

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Doesn't matter what you do in life, learn Microsoft Excel!

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

- US mkts itself are displaying mixed reactions. NASDAQ +0.6% on CPI but DJIA down on IBM earnings. This mix = a weak signal for #giftnifty
- Reaction in Nifty IT to #infosys & #wipro ADR falls

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Possible #nifty reaction tmoro to US CPI data:
- Tailwind: Core CPI at 2.6%(vs 2.9%) is dollar & yield negative, this combo supports FII flows into emerging mkts like India.
- Headwind: Oil is rising regardless, this directly raises costs & stacks on India's own June CPI(4.38%)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: IBM stock, $IBM, collapses nearly -20% after posting weaker than expected earnings due to “weakness in the software and infrastructure business.”

The stock just erased -$55 billion in market cap.

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

- #Wipro results due Thursday but pre-positioning in IT can start tmoro
- #nifty holding the 24000 level, a prior support+psychological zone for traders
- #FII #DII data- did the buying continue or are they stepping back?
- Watch for US CPI data to be released today

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

#Nifty closed 158pts down from yesterday.
#giftnifty had already signaled a 200pt fall last night.

Things to watch out for beside the Hormuz situation:
- Tmoro's a financial/insurance heavy day for Q1 Earnings, surprises there could move #banknifty

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Hoping for a reopening of the Strait by 9:30 am today. 🤣

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

The takeaway from today's session:
Oftentimes the market signal is not in the headline but in how the market reacts to that headline.

A continued move above 24200 could make way for 24500 while a breach below 24000 could shift sentiment to bearish.

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Why did #Nifty rally today when almost every macro input suggested it shouldn't?

Today's session reminds us that markets don't always follow macros. The initial setup looked bearish:
-#Asianmarkets down
-#Crude rising
-Renewed US-Iran tensions
Yet, #nifty closed above 24200

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

A few possibilities for divergence:
-Short covering after bears failed to break 24k
- Strong FII inflow after chip trades in South Korea turn weak
-#Investors viewing geopolitical risk as contained
-#Crude did rise but still below $90

[Vinodsrinivasan @vinodsrinivasan]

A bond paying 18.95% got fully subscribed in India this week. BlackRock, Goldman, Ares and Farallon lined up for it.

Your fixed deposit pays 7%. Before the jealousy kicks in, read this.

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

The uptrend today was fueled by global chip stocks rebound & TCS's higher than expected earnings

Largest Puller: Reliance
Largest Dragger: Airtel

The broader mkt outperformed- midcap 1.4% smallcap 1.55%
The weekly close above 24,100 signals a bullish trend for the next week

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

#Nifty confirmed yesterday's inverted hammer, gapped up & closed above prior high at 24,206.90 (+1.02%). Now testing 0.618 fib (24,255) resistance, EMA200 at 24,411 is the bigger hurdle.
Let's see what Monday holds!
#StockMarket #nifty50 #fibonacci

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

#Nifty confirmed yesterday's inverted hammer, gapped up & closed above prior high at 24,206.90 (+1.02%). Now testing 0.618 fib (24,255) resistance, EMA200 at 24,411 is the bigger hurdle.
Let's see what Monday holds!
#StockMarket #nifty50 #fibonacci

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

The question is- is the US report company-specific (like a loss of a client or project ramp down) or a macro factor?

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

TCS kicking off the IT earnings season, here's what's most interesting about the result:

TCS's largest market is the US and it grew just 2.2% YoY, down 0.4% QoQ.
UK: down 6%
Europe: up 4.3% YoY
India: up 22.9% YoY; 7.6% QoQ

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

So the '13.9% YoY growth' is propped up largely by the domestic strength, while TCS's major Western market remains sluggish.
Historically, when TCS reports soft on the US, Nifty IT as an index tends to drift down even before Infosys/HCLTech report.

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Bullish confirmation: a gap-up or strong green candle that closes above today's high

Bearish: a red candle closing below today's low (23,926) or below EMA50 (23,923)

Key resistance zones for tomorrow: 24,090–24,253

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Nifty printed an inverted hammer today (O 23,928 H 24,134 L 23,925 C 23,962) small body, long upper wick, rejected near 24000-24134 resistance
For tomorrow: Needs bullish confirmation above today's high to validate reversal; below 23,923 (EMA50) invalidates it #Nifty #niftychart

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

The stock market right now

[Taswi @HeyTaswi]

Craziest #nifty fall, 530 points! The 24300 PE jumped from 190 to 500 and is still climbing. Just one lot would've reaped you more than Rs.20,000 in just 20 minutes!

The key is - It's never easy to predict such steep falls, everything looks easy in retrospect.