Coach Hinds

$SPCX $TSLA. Finance Nerd. Die Hard Football Fan. My Thoughts Only #TrueStory

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

$TSLA hit $385.51 on the Roadster this morning and finished near $355, down about 2% on the day.
That's an ~8% fade off the high on a rough tech tape.
The Roadster was never the earnings story. Q3 on Wednesday is. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

GPS runs on about 31 satellites. Starlink has 11,000+ up.
If it can also do precise navigation without GPS, that's a new market on a network that's already built. Still long $SPCX https://t.co/TB1cgD6qiv

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@seti_park @Tesla SpaceX Starlink enables precise navigation without the need for GPS satellites

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

The Street has cut its $TSLA Q3 EPS estimate 9.4% in 30 days, to $0.43, down 14% YoY (Zacks).
Energy is still seen +10.5% to $3.77B and services +24.7%.
Low bar into Wednesday, and the growth isn't in cars. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Musk says a business Hagglebot could cut enterprise costs 5%+, up to $6T a year applied to global GDP.
SpaceXAI already runs it on its own vendor spend.
Big claim, but AI that pays for itself is the cleanest monetization path for $SPCX. Still long.
https://t.co/okZ9wsF6p6

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We are putting a lot of effort into a specialized Hagglebot for business use, as we think it could improve enterprise cost-efficiency by 5% or more.

Applied to the global GDP, this could be up to $6 trillion/year in savings, delivering an immediate and measurable advantage to any company using Grok @Bot.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

The Street wants $13.43B of $SPCX revenue in Q3, up about 72% from Q2's $7.81B (Business Quant consensus).
Q2 beat by 22.5%, and AI compute is carrying the growth.
High bar Tuesday. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Starlink has 11,000+ satellites up and 20 gateway sites built in India. Jio's first test launch is reportedly targeted for 2027. Reliance welcoming the competition says a lot. $SPCX https://t.co/ppjlhCTZVy

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

BREAKING: Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance says it welcomes competition from Elon Musk’s Starlink in India.

Here are the facts:

• Starlink already has 11,000+ satellites in low Earth orbit.

• Starlink has already confirmed that it has developed India-specific security controls and arrangements to keep Indian users’ data within India. It has also built 20 gateway sites across the country.

• Jio has not yet launched any satellites for its own proposed LEO constellation. Its first test launch is reportedly targeted for September 2027, with mass deployment expected to begin in early 2028.

Starlink’s global network is already built. Giving Indians access to Starlink would provide another option for communities where reliable internet access remains a challenge.

More competition can push providers to improve coverage, service, and pricing. Indian consumers deserve that choice.

India should welcome every provider that complies with their rules.

Let them compete in India, and let consumers decide who earns their business.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Gary Black's math: 3,000 Roadsters a year at $100K profit each adds about $0.06 to $TSLA's projected 2029 EPS of $5.40.
That's about 1%. The value is the battery and thruster tech it proves out, not the units.
Q3 on Oct 21 matters more. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

15 to 80% in 10 minutes on a bespoke 4680 cell with aluminum cans and double-sided cooling. The Roadster is the halo. The cell work is what I'm watching for $TSLA. https://t.co/AlvEiEP9u8

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

New Tesla Roadster info from the videos below:

• Bespoke 4680 battery cell just for Roadster. Tesla's fastest charging battery, 15-80% charge in 10 mins.
• Tesla wants to get to a <30 minute COPV tank refilling time, which will last ~5 seconds (single use before you have to refill it).
• COPV uses an actuator from Tesla's Optimus robot
• Roadster is capable of 0-60mph time of 0.55 seconds
• 310-320 mile range
• Up to 1,500 hp
• Two motors, both on the rear axel
• 10,000 psi COPV
• 330+ mph top speed target
• Rocket trim will be limited production
• Almost every panel of the car moves in some way
• Roadster is 2 meters wide
• The pedals move for driver comfort. Seats are fixed
• Brake-by-wire (and steer-by-wire)
• Wireless phone charger
• Heated seats
• Next-gen heat pump
• Tesla's thinnest headlights ever
• Rear-wheel drive only, with 2 rear motors making 1+ megawatt & 1,400+ Nm, more than all 3 Plaid motors combined
• No differential: each rear wheel is controlled independently through 8.4:1 planetary gears, with its own inverter
• New 4680 cells with a special high-power chemistry, aluminum cans (instead of steel) & double-sided cooling
• Titanium upper battery plate + aluminum lower plate
• 800V architecture (same as Cybertruck & Semi)
• 15-80% charge in 10 minutes, Tesla's fastest-charging battery ever
• 300+ miles of range (battery size not disclosed)
• Target of 25-30 minutes of unlimited track driving per charge
• Weight just under 1,700 kg or 3,700 lbs (not final)
• Double wishbone front suspension, multi-link rear, adaptive dampers
• Track Mode lowers the car 40mm & makes it 3x stiffer
• Pop-down headlights only ~15mm tall
• Front wings move up to 80°, with pop-out side "scales" (barge boards) & an active hood vent
• 4 rear fans (~20 kW each) + 4 drop-down side skirts form a "sucker system" for 2+ g of cornering from 0-50 mph
• Skirts are replaceable rubber & nylon-bristle wear parts
• Orange-tinted titanium-oxide rear glass, as used on aircraft
• Removable roof panels
• 4-5 prototypes built so far, with a bigger build planned early next year
• Tesla calls it "the last great driver's car"

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Evercore just lifted its FY2029 $SPCX adj. EBITDA estimate to $266B from $210B.
That's after &gt;$18B of Q2 spend, mostly AI infra.
Capex now, earnings power later. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Slovakia makes 9 European countries cleared for Tesla FSD Supervised. Every approval opens a software market on cars already on the road. Still long $TSLA https://t.co/uxyYzoRQBL

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tesla supervised self-driving approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Evercore sees $SPCX exiting 2026 at ~$104B in annualized recurring revenue, above SpaceX's own $100B target.
It also raised its 2027 AI compute forecast to 6.5 GW from 5.7 GW.
Recurring revenue at that scale is the case. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Options are pricing about a 5.1% move in $TSLA after Q3 earnings Oct 21, per Bloomberg data.
The Roadster won't move that. At ~215x forward earnings, this stock trades on Robotaxi and Optimus.
That's what I'm listening for. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

eMarketer pegs X ad revenue at ~$2.46B for 2026, about half of Twitter's 2021 level.
Musk now bars ugly, shrill or overhyped ads, betting a cleaner feed pulls premium brands back.
Fewer junk ads, higher quality inventory. Constructive for $SPCX.
https://t.co/0M74FHzW1Q

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Going forward, all advertising on 𝕏 will be subject to a reasonable esthetic standard.

Advertisers who post ads that are ugly, shrill, strident or overstate claims about their product will be barred from advertising.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

33 of 42 analysts on $SPCX rate it Buy or Strong Buy, per LSEG. The average target is $221.26, about 49% above Thursday's $148.62 close.
Evercore thinks Starship reuse gets proven within the next few flights. That's the catalyst, not the quarter. Still long.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Morgan Stanley stays Equal Weight on $TSLA at $400, about 10% above Thursday's $362.44 close, but turns more constructive on Robotaxi and core auto into Q3.
It sees the Roadster as an engineering showcase, not a near-term sales driver. Still long.
https://t.co/Q3AqiF5a9K

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$TSLA - MORGAN STANLEY TURNS MORE POSITIVE ON TESLA AHEAD OF Q3 EARNINGS

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco is becoming more constructive on Tesla, citing improving execution in Robotaxi and the core automotive business.

Following Tesla's Roadster unveiling, Percoco described the vehicle as a showcase of engineering prowess, highlighting its technological crossover with SpaceX.

However, he cautioned that the commercial potential of a flying Roadster remains uncertain.

🔸 Rating: Equal Weight
🔸 Price target: $400

The key takeaway: Morgan Stanley sees the Roadster primarily as a demonstration of Tesla's technological capabilities, rather than a near-term sales driver.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

$SPCX Q3 lands Oct 20, then $TSLA Q3 on Oct 21. Two straight earnings days for the shared-tech stack.
That's the calendar into next week.
https://t.co/FDrYBYB4FT

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

SpaceX has announced that they will release their Q3 earnings on October 20th (next Tuesday). Tesla's Q3 earnings will be on October 21st (next Wednesday).

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Blue Origin is putting $330M into a plant for up to 150 New Glenn upper stages a year, and wants LC-36 launches raised from 12 to 50.
New Glenn likely isn't flying again until early 2027.
A rival spending this big says launch demand is real. Still long $SPCX.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

$SPCX: Southwest plans Starlink across its full fleet by fall 2027, aiming to be the first major U.S. airline done fleetwide.
Enterprise demand keeps compounding.
https://t.co/Y2bdqY3psN

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

BREAKING: Southwest Airlines has announced it will expand Starlink to its entire fleet by fall 2027.

It expects to become the first major U.S. airline to complete a fleetwide Starlink rollout.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

Kalshi just put a $TSLA-$SPCX merger before March at 56%, up from 29% since the Barclays note.
Roadster thrusters made the overlap hard to miss. Still long both.

[Coach Hinds @HindsMarkets]

JPMorgan keeps Neutral on $TSLA at a $415 target after the Roadster flew with SpaceX thrusters.
$415 is about 15% above Thursday's $362.44 close. Production still 2028.