Holdin

Investment theses and deep dives into large-cap companies.
🎯 Long-term managed portfolio. Skin in the game.
📌 Not financial advice.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@alexandr_wang we all need to know bro.

When is muse coming to Europe?

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

Just let the noise settle and the cash flow do the talking.

Markets punish panic and reward profits in the long run

I’m buying the dip at $70. Let’s see where we sit in a year.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

Look at Netflix sitting at $70 today.

Everyone seems spooked again, but in a few months, half the market is going to be kicking themselves for not buying down here.

I’m stepping in heavy because I’m looking at the exact same setup I played on $META not that long ago.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

And the cold, hard numbers show content spend flattened out, operating leverage kicked in, and the cash flow engine is humming.

They’re buying back stock, not plugging leaks.

Paying ~22x earnings for the undisputed market leader with a distribution monopoly is a gift.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

Netflix is trading at $70 today. Mark my words: investors will wish they loaded up in a few months.

After crushing it on $META, I’m going heavy on this one.

[Mastery Literature @MasteryQuot]

In the research stage of your project, look at more than what is generally required. Expand your search into other fields, reading and absorbing any related information.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@piersmorgan @Cristiano Buddy go look at the rules. Players have to be numbered from 1 to 23

7 cannot be left empty.

That is why Rafael leão had to take number 7

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@jnwoo93901 @joecarlsonshow Keep crying bro. We'll keep making money while you do it

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

$META

[Mark Zuckerberg @finkd]

Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: https://t.co/eoLGVY8yad

Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens.

The reality is:

- People won't want to use agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they ask, so labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned.

There is a lot of debate about slowing progress on capabilities until alignment catches up. My view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Any lab that doesn't focus on alignment will fall behind.

- Labs face significant liability if their models cause harm, so they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well.

Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built.

- Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry best practice. MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better work. Other labs can just do this too. In general, it would be helpful for there to be a larger and more diverse ecosystem of evaluators.

- Committing the significant majority of compute towards serving people rather than racing towards recursive self-improvement is one of the best ways to ensure we develop this technology safely. Meta has made this commitment and other labs can do this as well.

I believe the key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power. This is within our power to do.

[Sasha Kaletsky @SashaKaletsky]

Muse is already getting more daily US downloads than Threads, WhatsApp and Facebook, and it's only 3,000 behind Instagram

Biggest consumer AI launch since ChatGPT. A new tier 1 consumer app is born

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

A Inteligência Artificial não é uma espécie de deus que de repente consegue acabar com a humanidade.

A IA é um algoritmo, que faz contas... e que resolve alguns problemas da nossa vida.

Está jogo de PR feito que está a ser feito por estes grandes CEOs traz água no bico.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

JENSEN RESPONDS TO THE AI DRAMA OVER THE WEEKEND:

"Safety is something we need to take seriously. There's a matter of internal control that I think Jacob Coxon was speaking to. Whenever you have a whistleblower, you have to take it very seriously. I thought he had great courage to put out his concerns."

"I think his scientific prediction about the future is not grounded in science. It was expressed by a scientist but not grounded in science so I take issue with that."

"Pausing, pacing...these are all things that these labs can choose to do if they think they are getting out of control. We don't know what Coxon saw. But if he saw the company was out of control then maybe it could be an issue with the transition from research to engineering. We don't know what he saw, ultimately only he knows. Maybe that transition is clumsy, but we don't know what he saw."

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@colossusmag @colossusjeremy What an excellent article.

[Colossus @colossusmag]

Mark, by @colossusjeremy.

This is a story about the head of history's largest nonterritorial empire, who nonetheless remains a prisoner of his rivals. Has he finally found a way out?

The profile has been nearly a year in the making. Stern interviewed three dozen people, including Zuckerberg, his MMA coach, and his critics and competitors at the frontier AI labs. He spoke with his parents, Karen and Ed, and watched their son get punched in the face.

The story spans Meta HQ in Menlo Park, the Zuckerbergs' homes in Palo Alto and Lake Tahoe, and a party in a Manhattan warehouse with Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet. There is also a sneak peek of Aaron Sorkin's forthcoming sequel about Zuckerberg, sourced via a Hollywood fixer Stern first encountered in Russia.

The result is a profile unlike one you've read before.

https://t.co/uO3zL1HKDl

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@alexandr_wang @alexandr_wang Any timeline for an EU release?

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.

You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.

I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.

But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.

Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.

Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.

So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.

If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@Cd_Investidores @DarioAmodei Estranho que de um dia para o outro o Musk, o Dario e o Altman lembram-se que têm valores morais e que afinal temos de colocar um travão na IA.

Ainda não percebi exatamente qual é a agenda por detrás deste stunt

[Holdin @HoldinStocks]

@simplexicAI @wallstengine Wait until you realize that Uber is not only operating in America and that outside of the US it's very hard to compete with a platform like Uber.