The Hormuz Letter

Iranian. The Middle East through the lens of oil, markets, and money. This is the only account.

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BREAKING: Iran launches anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, and Shahed-136 drones toward the port anchorages of Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Jebel Ali in the UAE and adjacent areas of the Strait of Hormuz, per multiple initial reports.

Heavy flight disruptions currently over Dubai, Sharjah and Fujairah.

It comes as Iran placed its armed forces on the highest alert for 72 hours a short while ago.

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BREAKING: Trump says he is considering dropping "an extremely large bomb. It's like a tiny nuclear bomb," against Iran when asked what deploying the MOAB, Mother of All Bombs, would mean.

He also says, he "may have to go after Pickaxe Mountain."

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BREAKING: The order to limit Ukraine's Starshield satellite access this week came directly from inside the White House, with leaders at the Defense Department receiving a message that the service needed to be slowed immediately, per multiple officials to Reuters.

Yet, White House officials told the Ukrainians yesterday they do not have control over SpaceX, and one source said the administration is going to reach out to SpaceX to figure out what happened.

Musk said Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government and that "any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS."

Zelensky said the failures were deliberate. "It was not a technical problem, it was the will."

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BREAKING: Iran has ordered a full military mobilization, placing its armed forces on the highest alert for the next 72 hours, per initial reports from Tehran.

Iran has deployed air defense systems, ballistic missiles, and other ground forces throughout Iran, along with armored vehicles and tanks in southwestern Iran near the Iraqi border over the last 24 hours.

It comes as US intelligence detected "extreme" new Iranian military moves hours earlier today.

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BREAKING: US intelligence has detected "extreme" new Iranian military moves, per Israel's Channel 12.

Netanyahu has briefed Trump on the movements, who has not decided when to strike. Israeli officials believe any new attack should target Iran's energy, missile and nuclear infrastructure.

Fresh Israeli security assessments now say Iran has restored its missile capabilities to roughly 400 active launchers, close to pre-war level, contradicting Trump's earlier claims of destroying the program.

Iran's IRGC exercises today ran for a fifth consecutive day with ballistic missile test launches from multiple cities, the most intense so far.

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BREAKING: Trump considering firing Defense Secretary Hegseth after the midterms in an effort to take the blame of the unpopular Iran war off of himself and onto Hegseth in order to "protect his legacy" and "reputation as an anti-war president," per multiple initial reports.

Trump is also on the verge of firing several key members of his administration in an effort to "clean house" amid mounting corruption allegations and expected midterm losses, as per the reports.

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BREAKING: Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser's office destroyed following Houthi strike on the headquarters in Dhahran, with part of the ceiling caved in and windows and doors blown out, per Reuters.

The top 3 floors of Aramco's headquarters were also destroyed.

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BREAKING: Ukraine to restart major strikes on Russia's oil refineries, with Zelensky declaring "The block on attacking refineries is out. We're done," per the FT.

Zelensky says the reason for the restart is Trump lying to him by deliberately blocking Starlink but presenting it to Kyiv as a "technical glitch," as well as telling Ukraine that the missed ballistic missile warnings earlier this week was due to "bad weather," which killed 6.

"It was not a technical problem, it was the will," from Trump, he says.

He also slammed Trump's eagerness to strike a diesel deal with Russia and Trump's apparent admiration for Putin, saying Trump has an instinctive affinity for autocrats and the super-wealthy. "He speaks about it openly and loudly that he loves such people and he respects such people," Zelensky says.

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BREAKING: Trump ordered the US military to develop new strike plans that include deploying the "mother of all bombs," the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal against Iran to target "a lot of energy infrastructure" and nuclear sites, per multiple US officials to CNN.

The newly developed options amount to a "fireworks show," a US official says.

The plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the MOAB, should Trump give the order to resume the war either before or after the midterm elections.

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BREAKING: Trump administration plans to ease sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers that have carried oil and petroleum products from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, in an effort to reduce record-high global freight rates, per Reuters.

The US already lifted sanctions on Russian diesel this month, running through April 2027.

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BREAKING: Iran's IRGC issues evacuation orders for a number of military bases throughout Iran, per initial reports.

It comes as Iranian officials told regional diplomats this week that a new US attack is "imminent" and that they are "100% certain" it will happen.

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BREAKING: US considers unfreezing Russian assets, with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner planning a release of up to $100 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets as an upfront incentive for a limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure, per the FT.

European officials rejected it outright, opposing giving up any control over the assets or returning any to Russia. "This was just simply not going to happen," an EU official said.

At the same time, the US threatened Ukraine this week with a total halt to intelligence sharing if it struck Russian energy sites again.

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BREAKING: US intelligence officials warn the Ukrainian embassy in Washington that any further strikes on Russian energy sites will now mean a halt to all intelligence sharing, per WaPo.

"The warnings were so widespread that anyone with a Ukrainian-sounding last name got a call."

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BREAKING: The US has intentionally withheld early warnings of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine this week, but US officials told their Ukrainian counterparts the system used to detect Russian missile launches had failed due to "bad weather," per CBS.

Ukrainian officials did not believe the excuse and accused the US of "playing" with the system. The strike killed 6 and left more than 600,000 without power.

Zelensky said hours later that Elon Musk and Trump deliberately blocked Starlink in Ukraine and that people have been killed as a result.

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BREAKING: Netanyahu says overthrowing the Iranian regime and finishing the job is what is at stake in the Israeli elections on Oct. 27.

"I say it is essential to overthrow this regime. We've done a great deal. We've crushed it. They're at the weakest point they've ever been. But we need to finish the job. We must," Netanyahu says.

Iran told regional diplomats that a new US attack is "imminent" and that they are "100% certain" it will happen.

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BREAKING: Iran told regional diplomats that a new US attack against Iran is "imminent," and that they are "100% certain" it will happen, per i24.

"The atmosphere in Tehran is such that people feel the bombings are going to resume in the short term," the diplomats say.

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BREAKING: Zelensky says he has been betrayed by Trump, that Elon Musk and Trump deliberately blocked Starlink in Ukraine overnight and that people have been killed as a result. "I am sure they knew what they did, absolutely. Because it was 1am at night, Starlink was blocked by SpaceX and the United States," he tells Piers Morgan.

"This decision will bring a lot of human losses. Of course, people will die." He said interceptors that rely on Starlink did not work, and that "this is not the right side of history."

Asked if he is angry with Musk, Zelensky said yes, calling it a big mistake.

"Now Putin is laughing because, I mean this is for him, simple victory," he says on the Trump-Russia diesel deal.

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BREAKING: Iran declares it will sink US aircraft carriers and kill their crews, and is waiting for US warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz "so that we can sink them. We are counting down moment by moment until this happens," per IRGC Navy commander Azmaei to IRNA.

For the strike, Iran says it will use the Qasem Basir solid-fuel ballistic missile with a 1,200-kilometer range, a 500-kg warhead, and electro-optical seekers that track moving naval targets without GPS, the same one Iran used against the USS George Washington on Sept. 5, where CENTCOM confirmed Iran fired missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer.

Iran says the USS George Washington has moved 700 kilometers away from the Strait because it does not dare approach.

No US aircraft carrier has been located in CENTCOM on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery since early September.

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BREAKING: The Emir of Qatar warns all of his citizens to prepare for the worst-case scenario in the Middle East, in a formal address today.

"We must be prepared for the worst possibilities and everyone must bear their responsibilities, institutions and citizens."

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BREAKING: Iran announces a large UAE-owned container ship carrying more than 2,500 containers hit a naval mine, exploded and sank this morning in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz.

It is the first vessel sunk by a mine in the war.

Initial reports indicate the cargo ship was carrying luxury perfumes and iPhones from Dubai.