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As my good friend @Jor_Henry pointed out…
The Toronto Maple Leafs have missed the playoffs twice in the past 10 years.
They’ve won the lottery both times.
Why on Earth does Colorado vs Minnesota have a gap from Tuesday-Saturday in their schedule?
NHL needs to make these two teams play every other night, and put it on Eastern Time. You want to grow the game of hockey? Shove the Avs vs the Wild down our throats
4 series at 3-2 right now. Time for some nerd math:
If games 6 and 7 of these series were both coin flips (i.e. both teams have 50% win odds), then the trailing teams would be at 25% series win odds.
In practice, this won't ever be the case in the model because home ice advantage would give the home team ~53% win odds if the teams were equal.
Thus, the model would give the trailing team slightly lower series win odds because they would need to win a home game (53%) and an away game (47%), so 0.53 * 0.47 = 0.2491 -> 24.91% series win odds, a tad lower than 25%.
The math with home ice advantage rounds up to 25% anyhow so we can just use 25% for the following heuristic: If a trailing team has a >25% chance of a series win, they are the stronger team according to the model. Otherwise they are the weaker team.
From this we can deduce the model believes:
- BUF is a stronger team than BOS
- DAL is a stronger team than MIN
- PIT is a stronger team than PHI
- EDM is a (far) stronger team than ANA
If I'm the Bruins, I'd rather go down swinging with your potential future top-six forward — the one you burned the first year of his ELC for in order to get playoff reps— but that is just my opinion.