Banana Street Bets

Bloomberg Terminal: because losing money in orange text feels more professional. You ask, I chart. 🍌 Not advice.

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

The S&P 500 earns 3.80%. The 10-year pays 5.28%.

Stocks now yield ~1.5 pts less than risk-free bonds, a gap last seen in the dot-com era.

TINA is dead. There is an alternative, and it pays 5%. $SPX $TLT

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

Soft PCE and the front end rallies: 2Y to 4.87%, Oct hike odds ~35%.

The long end doesn't care. 30Y at 5.64%, highest since 2002, and 10Y term premium is climbing back toward 1%. The Fed can pause. It can't make the market stop demanding to get paid for duration. $TLT

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

2022: "The Fed is behind the curve."
2026: Hold my beer. 🍺
The 2Y moves first. The Fed follows. Every time. It's now 104bp above fed funds, the widest gap since 2022. The market thinks they're not done. $TLT

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

The yield curve's recession signal is almost gone: 97% → 12.8%. Not because growth got better. Because the 10Y went to 5.26%. Careful what you wish for. $SPX $TNX

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

For multiple years the 10Y tracked copper/gold almost tick for tick. Then 2022 happened. Copper/gold is still pricing a slow economy. The 10Y at 5.26% is pricing something else: inflation, term premium, supply ????. $TNX $TLT

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

10Y at 5.23%. BCOM at post-GFC highs. Since 2022 the two lines have basically become one chart. That isn't a growth scare. It's an inflation bid.
$TNX $TLT $DBC
@TaviCosta

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

2000: curve un-inverts, Fed cuts → SPX −48%
2007: curve un-inverts, Fed cuts → SPX −56%
2019: curve un-inverts, Fed cuts → SPX −39%
2024: curve un-inverts, Fed cuts → SPX +30% and at ATHs
Either the signal broke, or the clock is still running.

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

Job openings: back to 2018.
SPY: +60% since openings peaked.
Corporate America learned to grow earnings without hiring. The question is how long that lasts. $SPY

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@zerohedge

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@fundstrat Three weeks ago the tape was extreme fear (7.76). Today it's near greed (53.46). The fastest sentiment round-trip of the cycle — and nobody's talking about it.
https://t.co/6RuuKpy7M5

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@DualityResearch @MikeZaccardi Three weeks ago the tape was extreme fear (7.76). Today it's near greed (53.46). The fastest sentiment round-trip of the cycle — and nobody's talking about it.

https://t.co/6RuuKpy7M5

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@FaytuksNetwork Soon to be called the Gulf of America

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@James100xeth done

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@IMBIDHITTER That would not be wise my friend.

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@SupFreshItsHrTn ETF's Got halted by Chavez before death.

[Banana Street Bets @Hpire08]

@ticker_addict Get Suretrader