Saul Vency

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

Edited to leave a clue.

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

The only thing that matters is variance.

Variance is the end state. The years I spent obsessing over making everything decentralized, permissionless, cheaper, faster and more efficient missed the much bigger shift happening underneath all of it.

We’re moving into a world where making stuff isn’t scarce anymore.

Music, movies, art, software, writing, whatever. historically part of the value was that most people couldn’t make these things. AI changes that.

Anything where you can specify the output can just be generated.

Want Taylor swifts voice singing heavy metal? Want an agent to scroll dating apps for you? One prompt away.

The. cost of making stuff will go towards 0.

If everyone can make basically whatever they want, the thing itself stops being that interesting.

So what doesn’t become infinite?

Real outcomes.

You can’t prompt reality into agreeing with you.

AI can simulate you winning a poker tournament or making a billion dollars, but you know you asked it to happen.

There was no chance it wouldn’t.

Compare that to putting your actual money into something and having no idea if you’re about to make 100x or get nuked.

The possibility that reality says NO is what makes everything matter.

That’s what I mean by variance.

And I think AI makes variance more valuable, not less.

Because the more stuff we can generate on command, the more we care about the shit we can’t.

You can make infinite songs. You can’t make people care about one.

AI can write the greatest investment thesis you’ve ever read and the market can open tomorrow and tell you to go fuck yourself.

You can build 500 apps in a weekend. Doesn’t mean anyone will use them.

There is no prompt that gives you that answer because the answer doesn’t exist yet.

It only exists after everyone acts.

Same thing with gambling, memecoins, sports, collectibles, prediction markets, multiplayer games, anything.

The real product is what happens next.

AI can generate a billion football games and none of them will ever feel like watching the Super Bowl live.

That’s because someone actually has to win, someone has to lose.

And nobody knows who until it happens.

I realized this is also the reason im so obsessed with crypto.

Not because we’re going to replace banks or put mortgages onchain.

Crypto is just really good infrastructure for economic games.

you can put money behind basically anything.

and money makes outcomes matter.

no model is going to give you the feeling of watching some stupid bag you own rip 100x because the entire reason it feels like that is you had no idea it was going to happen.

you could’ve been wrong.

but you weren’t.

that’s the high.

I think uncertainty becomes more valuable as everything else becomes easier to manufacture.

which means the things worth getting really good at are probably the things where you don’t control the answer.

if AI gets rid of the scarcity of things we can create, value moves toward the outcomes we can’t guarantee.

probably worth thinking pretty seriously about what kind of life you want in that world.

I’ve been thinking about this for a long time, and eventually thinking about it wasn’t enough.

I’m building something around this idea now.

A place for variance across all markets, games, bets and anything else where the outcome is real, uncertain and consequential.

A system where no one can pay to block someone else from competing for your variance.

A system where everyone has to compete for your money on entertainment and utility.

Almost ready to share it with the world.

There’s a future I believe in here.

I hope this helps us get there.

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

There’s a new scam emerging on retail trading apps, particularly Fomo:

Influencers with massive followings are getting paid to buy and “hold” heavily bundled coins, creating the image that they’re conviction traders with balls of steel.

The public wallet holds the position and the influencer agrees not to sell. Meanwhile, the influencer gets paid or receives tokens in side wallets in exchange for not selling the public position.

The original $AMC coin was trending. Then a much more bundled and orchestrated version came out. That earned placement on the trending token page, because it would generate more fees for Fomo if a godlike figure was there to promote a $1,000,000 uPnL.

[merp @0xMerp]

why did the less bundled one just get removed from the trending tokens list?

[Zilayo @0xZilayo]

How to turn $100k into 291 MILLION XPL (or ~$105m at current prices)

A VC invested ~$100k into Plasma equity via a SAFE and purchased token warrants allowing them to buy XPL at a price of ~$0.0000347.

In August 2025 the VC exercised the warrants and bought ~12.5m XPL for $433.75.

To turn this into 291m XPL we need a bit more context:

The original token warrants had a wording error, stating that the amount of XPL they were entitled to was based on the VC's total equity in Plasma - this would have entitled them to 2.6% of XPL's max supply.

The VC already held shares in Plasma due to M&A activities in 2024, and then obtained further equity via the SAFE agreements. In March 2025 they then purchased more equity via secondary markets.

Plasma noticed this error in July 2025 and amended the token warrants to clarify the XPL amount was based solely on the SAFE investment and NOT the total equity held - this entitled the VC to ~12.5m XPL as exercised above.

Since August 2025, the VC has taken the stance that they are entitled to an additional 279 MILLION XPL due to the wording in the original warrants (a total of 291m XPL), claiming that the amendment was invalid.

Plasma have now token the VC to court, asking the court to confirm that the amendments to the token warrants are valid, and that the funds are only entitled to 12.5m XPL.

Funnily enough, a partner of the VC also sits on the board of Plasma.

The courts will now decide whether you can turn $100k into 291m XPL, or only 12.5m XPL.

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

The future is billions glued to their devices, trading bullshit into stablecoins, keeping the dollar alive.

Your job is to get ahead of the curve before it’s too late.

The US economy is a ponzi.

But you can still profit from it before liquidity dries up.

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

The US economy is a ponzi.

The government runs massive deficits. To fund them, it needs perpetual dollar demand.

How do you manufacture that demand?

Stablecoins. Here's how the next few years play out:

[Saul Vency @IDFmarketmaker]

Don’t blindly chase the speculative assets.

Most are disposable shells designed to churn liquidity.

The winning bet is on the rails plus the media that make those assets liquid.