Illimar Mattus

Trading since 1997. Mostly futures and options. Personal views only here, no advice. Co-Founder of prop firm The Trading Pit and broker Tickmill.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

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[The Trading Pit @TheTradingPit_]

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[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

BREAKING: Elon Musk has set the SpaceX $SPCX IPO price at $135 per share.

A total shares offered will be 555,600,000.

The size of IPO at $75 billion and fully diluted SpaceX valuation at $1.75 trillion.

Shares begin trading June 12.

Congratulations Elon Musk!

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

The AI Narrative Is Driving Markets Again. Are You Trading the Setup or the Story?

https://t.co/Ndk6TKrTw2

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

A fascinating Q1 2026 13F filing from Situational Awareness LP and its founder Leopold Aschenbrenner.

The portfolio grew from roughly $5.5B to $13.7B in disclosed exposure in just one quarter — heavily concentrated around AI infrastructure, semiconductors, power generation and compute capacity.

What stood out most was the scale of the bearish semiconductor positioning:
• Massive PUT exposure on NVDA, AMD, AVGO, ORCL, TSM and SMH
• Simultaneously long AI infrastructure, datacenter and energy themes
• A very sophisticated “long the AI revolution, hedge the hype” structure
The interesting part?
Since March 31st — the reporting date of the filing — markets have mostly moved in the opposite direction. Semiconductor stocks have actually continued leading the rally.
It’s a reminder that even some of the brightest macro and AI-focused investors can get timing wrong, especially in markets driven by momentum, liquidity and narrative acceleration.

Still, the broader thesis behind the portfolio is extremely interesting:
AI compute demand → datacenter expansion → massive energy requirements → infrastructure bottlenecks.

Whether early or wrong, the positioning itself tells a powerful story about where sophisticated capital believes the world is heading.

#AI #Investing #Semiconductors #NVIDIA #Datacenters #Energy #HedgeFunds #13F #Markets

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

@THICK_prints What is this dashboard that you are using?

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

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[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

This is the EU Carbon Emissions Allowance price — specifically the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) carbon futures, often shown as:

👉 EUCRBRDT Index (Bloomberg)
👉 EU Carbon Allowances (EUA) price per ton of CO₂

What it represents
•The price companies in Europe pay to emit 1 ton of CO₂
•Traded as futures (mainly ICE exchange)
•Core part of EU climate policy (cap-and-trade system)

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

The % share of German GDP in the global GDP.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

Crude oil and energy markets believe that Trump is talking to nobody in Iran.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

@SprinterPress He has an auto-adjusting jacket, similar to what you see in the movie Back to the Future. So he just travelled to the Future with DeLorean and now came back to our time to have a cup of coffee. Quite normal actually. Everybody does this nowadays.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

For the past months I have been working with AI tools to develop algorithmic breakout strategies for a 5-min timeframe. My focus is high-momentum instruments like Gold, Silver, Copper, NatGas, WTI, Nasdaq100 and Cocoa.

The strategies have now been backtested and optimized.

The past week I am working to create a real-time dashboard for the strategies.

Note that I have no prior programming or design experience. If I can do it, so can you!

[Wholesome Side of 𝕏 @itsme_urstruly]

Turkish soldier gives chocolate to a Syrian child, one of the bars drops... He picks it up and thinks he has to give it back.

They way he turned around to wave... this world doesn't deserve so much innocence 😭

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Turkish photographer Uğur Gallenkuş portrays two different worlds within a single image.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

@legen_eth I left a 5-star review. Keep up the good work!

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: At 0120 local time on March 5, a small vessel approached the Sonangol Namibe, a 274-meter Bahamas-flagged crude tanker anchored near Khor Al-Zubair, Iraq’s primary oil loading port.

There was a loud bang. The port-side ballast tank began taking on water. Hull breach confirmed. 23 crew members safe. No cargo aboard. No pollution reported. The vessel remains afloat.

UKMTO confirmed the incident. Tier 1.

This is the most significant tanker attack of the war and it is not the attack that matters most.

Here is what happened in the insurance market on the same day the tanker was hit.

Five major Protection and Indemnity clubs, Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and the American Club, issued cancellation notices effective March 5, 2026. Together these clubs cover 90% of the world’s merchant fleet. The 72-hour notice they issued on March 1 expired this morning.

The cancellations are not blanket. Reinstatement is available. At materially increased premiums. What was 0.2% of hull value is now 1%. For a $100 million vessel, single voyage coverage that cost $200,000 before the war now costs $1 million or more. And that assumes coverage is available at all in certain zones.

Now understand the architecture of what just broke.

P&I clubs cannot write coverage their reinsurers will not back. Reinsurers price catastrophic tail risk. When a major declared naval conflict produces tanker kills, hull breaches, and a government announcement of wartime control over a strategic chokepoint in the same 72-hour window, reinsurance treaty capacity begins withdrawing. When reinsurance withdraws, primary coverage becomes impossible to write at any premium. When coverage becomes impossible, Letters of Credit that finance global trade cannot be issued. When Letters of Credit fail, ships do not move. Not just oil tankers. Bulk carriers, container ships, grain vessels, pharmaceutical freight.

That mechanism is what 150 ships stranded outside the Strait of Hormuz actually represents. Not Iranian missiles stopping them. Insurance mathematics stopping them.

The Sonangol Namibe was not carrying cargo. It was waiting to load 80,000 metric tonnes of Iraqi crude.

It will not be loading now.

Khor Al-Zubair is where Iraq exports the heavy fuel oil that flows to Asian refineries. Iraq is not a party to this war. Iraq did not authorize strikes on Iran. Iraq has tried to remain neutral while hosting US forces on its soil and maintaining relations with Tehran simultaneously.

A vessel in its primary export corridor was just destroyed by a small boat with explosives at 1 AM.

War has no neutral shipping lanes.

The insurance market understood that four days ago.

The market priced it. The ships stopped.

The physical attacks are not closing the Strait of Hormuz. The mathematics of risk transfer already did.

https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

A wake-up call.

Today I needed to analyse five years of banking transactions for a large company. The task was to summarise the data monthly, group transactions into operational segments, filter out non-material items, identify how the business model and cost structure evolved, and highlight key red flags together with areas to improve both revenue and profitability. ChatGPT completed this in 5 minutes.

If I had asked a junior analyst or accountant to do the same work, it would likely have taken several days.

Yesterday, I uploaded 100 anonymised trading statements from different traders and asked ChatGPT to identify the five with the strongest potential and produce a visual report explaining why. It took only a few minutes. For a human, this would normally require at least a full day.

The point is simple. Anyone at a junior level today — or currently studying at university — should start thinking now about the real value they will bring in the future. Routine analytical and administrative work is being automated faster than most people realize.

It increasingly looks like within 3–5 years, possibly sooner, only exceptionally capable, adaptable, and hard-working professionals will thrive in many white-collar roles. AI is already performing tasks that many companies still rely on humans to do. This shift will accelerate.

For entrepreneurs and highly driven individuals, however, this is one of the greatest wealth-creation opportunities of our lifetime. Those who learn to work with AI rather than compete against it will have a significant advantage.

The question is no longer whether AI will transform work. It is how quickly you are willing to transform yourself.

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

@legen_eth What did you use Opus for?

[Illimar Mattus @IllimarM]

Open interest in December '26 call options of Gold futures. Some big Whale thinks that Gold could reach the levels as high as $15,000 or even $20,000 by December '26. Gold is currently trading at $5,150.

What it means is that somebody thinks Gold price could rise by the end of year 3- to 4-fold, or at least there would be explosive rise in price which would increase the value of the call options.

These positions at strikes of $15,000 and $20,000 are most likely call spreads, which means that they have bought $15,000 call strike and covered some of the premium paid by shorting the $20,000 call strike.