Buying a home was already one of the worst financial decisions for most people.
Now, with the $40T national debt flooding the bond market and 30-year fixed rates stuck at 6.6%, the math has gotten even uglier.
Uncle Sam is issuing ~$2T a year in new Treasuries. That supply keeps the term premium elevated. The 10-year yield sets the mortgage rate. Higher deficits = higher monthly payments. Period.
Here’s the cold reality:
• Mortgage at 6.6% + taxes + insurance + maintenance + opportunity cost of capital easily runs 9-11% annually on the home’s value
• Equivalent rent in most markets sits at 4.5-6.5%
• The down payment and principal you’re “building equity” with could be compounding at 7-9% in a diversified portfolio (or 4.3%+ net and fully liquid in short-duration Treasuries)
The leverage that used to amplify gains now amplifies the cost of capital.
Homebuilders ($DHI $LEN $PHM $TOL $XHB) will keep facing the same headwind: locked affordability and slow absorption. REITs with strong rental demand remain more defensive. Long-duration bonds ($TLT) stay vulnerable to every heavy Treasury auction.
If deficits stay near 6% of GDP, this is not a temporary rate regime. It’s the new baseline.
The house is no longer the “best asset.” In most cases it’s just the most expensive, least efficient one people still buy for emotional reasons.
Rent + invest the difference remains the superior financial decision for the majority.
#Debt #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #OpportunityCost #Homebuilders $DHI $LEN $PHM $TLT $TNX
@jeremymstamper@tatereeves Its a combination of going back to old teaching ways like phonics and not having social promotions i.e. kids that can't read/write dont pass 2nd or 3rd grade until they are proficient.
@SpeakingBee@RoyalWins1@drd_1812@cremieuxrecueil I dint th8nk You're correct. If no one wants to live like this, why di people keep moving here? Is personally like it if they stopped. But also socialism isnt a big deal here. If I wanna build something for myself I can. And people build hideous buildings/houses here all the time
@SpeakingBee@RoyalWins1@drd_1812@cremieuxrecueil Man you've never been to Houston. 4th largest city in America and no zoning. In my neighborhood we have blocks with expensive house next door to car lots and across the street from liquor stores. And more expensive house next to that. Your argument is bullshit and invalid.
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In March of 1973, a man wrote to E. B. White, the author of Charlotte’s Web, confessing that he had lost all faith in humanity. Here was E. B. White’s reply