The Frugal Investor

Affordable Equities Analysis Newsletter
Our Goal: Beat the S&P 500 Index on a month to month basis
- don't trade

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1 million bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers over the course of a decade by investing in an S&P 500 index fund.

In 2017, he won.

This is the Index Challenge. and what we are all about: https://t.co/3qWpYfCMpt

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@dividendology MSFT's enterprise software segment is subscriptions based on quantity of users.

AI portends to reduce the quantity of white collar users needed by their customers.

Interesting is software not dependent on qty of users, that have suffered from the same price drops.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@dividendology "After doing my due diligence, I believe I found a company that will not be disrupted by AI."

https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu views insurance companies as the greatest beneficiaries of AI - - being a business made up nearly entirely on logical processes.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

6/29/26 WSJ: margin debt increases - both direct and indirect (leveraged ETFs i.e. 2x, 3x).

Everyone knows excess debt to buy stock fueled the great crash of 29. But no one knows what the new leveraged ETFs will mean.

https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu guesses down will be more steep.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@CNBC Salesforce as enterprise software sells subscriptions to white collar workers. The rise of AI portends to reduce the need for those same workers.

Also performing financial engineering - - rolling up companies to increase the top line and now issuing debt to buy back shares.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai MSFT's enterprise software sector is based on subscribers (white collar workers). The rise of AI portends to significantly reduce the need for white collar workers.

The interesting investment is software that is not subscriber based - but currently being tarred by that brush.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

GROK: Ethereum transactions and activity are up substantially from 2025 levels (e.g., +38–72%+ in daily tx, active addresses doubling or more in some periods).

... at some point Ethereum and Bitcoin will stop trading in sync. They are totally different.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@SquawkCNBC @StocktonKatie There is no way to statistically analyze Bitcoin. It is an abstraction. Analyzing Bitcoin statistically is no different than analyzing a routlette wheel statistically.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@SquawkCNBC a satellite based mobile service would be ok for texting & data .... but is never good for voice conversations because of the time lag.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@Invested_In_You "What would you do with the $2.4M?"

-$100k cash to fund year 1
- half in the S&P 500 Index fund
- half in a dividend aristocrats fund

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@FollowTTours @BrianEntin No way. Hearing protection? fake news. I worked in and around data centers - the telephone company, corporate mainframes, etc. ... totally silent. Check out the episode of Silicon Valley where they are in the data center.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@FirstSquawk You need to stop doing posts IN ALL CAPS ... will block otherwise.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@zerohedge Once upon a time there was telephone company that would charge business customers more for a telephone line in order to subsidize residential telephone cost - to encourage everyone to become connected.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@dividendology AMP: 7% growth, zero debt
GRMN: 15% growth, zero debt
NEM: 26% annual revenue growth, zero debt
PTC: 27% annual revenue growth, modest debt
RMD: 10% revenue growth, zero debt
TTD: 15% annual revenue growth, zero debt

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

'First to Market' is a business technology urban myth. i.e. first browsers, early PC database brands, etc. all long gone...

staying power, constant improvement, and lowest cost eventually wins the marketshare.

https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

A data center is nothing but an office building for electronics. That's it. There is no brand differentiation. In the long run the lowest cost provider will win.

https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

Just for perspective: 1996. Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, used the phrase "irrational exuberance". 3 years early in the dot com.

Maybe https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu is also early in liking cash flow + low debt. Crypto, AI, Quantum is real but ...

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

https://t.co/Ragp8UHLIu our mid month adjustment adds HPE, DELL, PAYC, TEL and NFLX. Sold memory - maybe too early TBD. We still hold a variety in the S&P 500 that have good revenue gains and zero debt - though the market is not (yet) rewarding them.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@curraheevet @FCNightingale No it is not everywhere.

[The Frugal Investor @IndexChallenge]

@syracusedotcom grok: "HS graduates.. peak.. 2025 and then declining. "
did you not see this trend? + factor in many east coast once would never consider LSU, Alabama, TX, etc. and now they do.

adjust, compete