Ian Gutterman

Informing people about insurance, investing, and more. Protecting tail risk since 1995.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

I see a lot of people reacting to State Farm’s decision to stop writing new home insurance in California.

But there seems to be a lot of confusion about their motives.

The last thing State Farm wants to do is give up business.

Here’s why State Farm felt they had to act. 1/12

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

This ad is the best case to short AI.

Let's see, we're going to sell pizza at a loss and sell much more of it. Great job, CoPilot!

https://t.co/Ijsc0XekQS via @YouTube

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

This is most definitely DOOM porn. While there is some underlying truth to it, all effective propaganda has some kernel of truth that allows for sensationalized extrapolation.

There will be creative destruction, just like past cycles, but we will also adapt and benefit.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

I would double down on Denver at 11-1 today. No team in the final four should be 11-1. Especially not one with home field and a great D.

If they beat NE, you can always hedge with the NFC winner if you don't want to see if they win it all.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Broncos at 14-1 to win the Super Bowl is a fat pitch. Not suggesting they should be the favorite but they have as good a shot as anyone of being the 1 seed and the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens are all flawed.

Mathematically, that 1 seed is a huge odds booster.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Odds down to 7-1 today.

Best new $ is Bears at 25-1. I don't expect them to win but they're same odds as 6&7 seeds. They may not be a better team but they have a key advantage = home field.

They should probably be like 15-1. If they can get to NFC Champ game, you hedge out.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Broncos at 14-1 to win the Super Bowl is a fat pitch. Not suggesting they should be the favorite but they have as good a shot as anyone of being the 1 seed and the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens are all flawed.

Mathematically, that 1 seed is a huge odds booster.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

@YahooFantasy I know stats can change but never seen them do so without documentation. It was .6 so 6 yds. Any idea who got dinged?

Starters: Maye Nico Tet Henry Kyren RJ Ferguson Aubrey Rams

@jagibbs_23 @PPRFantasyTips @EricNMoody @adamlevitan @DynastyDadFF @joeorrico

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Hey @YahooFantasy you disappeared 6 yds from me overnight costing me a playoff win and $$.

"Support" says they can't tell which player's stats were changed or pull an archive of the score from last night to see what changed.

I deserve a better explanation than that.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

@YahooFantasy You disappeared 6 yds from my team overnight costing me a playoff win and $$.

"Support" says they don't know which player was affected and they don't have an archive from last night to figure out whose score changed.

I deserve a better explanation than that.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

How I will always remember Rob Reiner:

https://t.co/IBKfKJlFWs

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Broncos at 14-1 to win the Super Bowl is a fat pitch. Not suggesting they should be the favorite but they have as good a shot as anyone of being the 1 seed and the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens are all flawed.

Mathematically, that 1 seed is a huge odds booster.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

50 years ago today Sean Maguire missed Game 6 of the World Series to see about a girl.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

The scandal isn't that JB is a high roller. It's that he gambles in Vegas instead of IL casinos because he knows the take by the state is lower.

The plebs have to pay the extortive IL take at Rivers while he gets higher payouts in Vegas.

[NBC News @NBCNews]

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a billionaire, took home $1.4 million in winnings after playing blackjack at a casino in Las Vegas last year, according to a copy of his new tax filing. https://t.co/9SoPCZP4VN

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

What's the over/under on length of $NVDA's related party section of the upcoming 10-K?

I'd probably go with 35 pages.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Today was NOT the 1st time the Eagles have walked off a game with a DL returning a blocked FG for a TD.

1988 the below win against the Giants ultimately won them the division and their 1st playoff appearance in 7 years.

Jordan Davis meet Clyde Simmons.

https://t.co/6XSWv0msB6

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Saw Stephen Miran on CNBC today. Reminds me of the overly confident sell side analyst who is well spoken and polished but only seeks confirming evidence and ignores anything contradictory.

They convince a lot of clients but tend to get more wrong than they get right.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Wanted to get on record for best NFL future bet this year.

Niners at 20-1 is a steal. If things go well, they can be the #1 seed in NFC. The other teams you can say that about are around 10-1.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

@YossiGozlan I feel you left out more likely option to move 3 = be 3rd team in Giannis trade where they give Bucks #3 and get re-routed a player from a contender who doesn't fit Bucks rebuild.

Would have to move Oubre & Drum to fit that player in but a contender might like them for depth.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

@ThatchTaylor Yes, though I find these stats a bit misleading. You are likely to get the worst days with the best unless you're an impeccable market timer.

Nearly all of the best days come in the midst of awful bear markets so you have those great days but maybe 3 weeks later a worst day.

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

Best day since 2008 is not something to celebrate. The market went down another 30% over the next few months.

Doesn't mean will happen again but giant moves in bear markets are normal and not usually a sign of the bottom.

[CNBC @CNBC]

Dow surges 2,900 points, S&P 500 posts biggest gain since 2008 on Trump tariff reversal https://t.co/54ndPnh3R8

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

@rSanti97 FYI I wrote more about FAIR last week if interested. This $1B is the first assessment. There will be more and the subsequent ones are entirely passed on to customers.

https://t.co/vMsyFvqgjS

[Ian Gutterman @InformedByIan]

I've said for a long time passthrough is egregious. You wouldn't believe the size of HR, marketing, IT, etc.

There's no limit on hiring because someone else pays and they don't complain.

Maybe Elon should forget about USAID and focus on hedge fund reckless spending???

[kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2]

"Hedge Funds Are Pocketing Much of Their Clients’ Gains With ‘No Limit’ Fees"

"In 2023, the main hedge fund at billionaire Dmitry Balyasny’s eponymous firm notched a gross return of 15.2%.
Investors walked away with a gain of just 2.8%.

The rest they paid in fees — more than $768 million — mainly for compensation but also a wide variety of other costs down to mobile-phone service.

That parceling out of costs is one of the most coveted perks of running a multistrategy hedge fund.

Investors are so eager to pony up money that they effectively write a blank check, agreeing to cover just about any expense managers deem reasonable, in good times and bad.

The term for that: Passthrough fees....

Multistrats — known for their trading “pods” that chase profits in all kinds of markets — say they need that freedom to compete for talent, invest in cutting-edge technologies and stay nimble as markets evolve.

Prominent firms with the fee structure include Millennium Management, Citadel, Point72 Asset Management, Balyasny Asset Management and ExodusPoint Capital Management.

Those five alone manage more than $200 billion....

...Last week, Citadel filed a bond prospectus, obtained by Bloomberg, with pages of details on costs it charges.

They include technology and travel “of all forms,” such as booking or leasing a private jet.

Investors can also foot bills for employee gifts, entertainment for employee gatherings, as well as snacks, drinks and “other nourishment,” the document shows.

From the start of 2022 and through last September, Citadel’s three biggest funds racked up almost $12.5 billion of passthrough fees, with more than $11 billion paying for employee compensation and benefits...."