Sérgio Bento - Insights

Análises estratégicas de macroeconomia e geopolítica, com foco em contexto global, mercados e tomada de decisão.
Por Sérgio Bento | #SBInsights

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX , shares are now indicated to open at $162 per share, 20% above the IPO price of $135 per share.

Shares are expected to officially begin trading soon.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

Assets under management (AUM) in the 2x Leveraged Long SK Hynix ETF, listed in Hong Kong, are up to a record ~$10 billion, making it the largest single-stock leveraged ETF in the world.

The fund, launched in October 2025, has seen its AUM more than QUADRUPLE in less than 2 months.

It has now overtaken the 2x Leveraged Long Tesla ETF, $TSLL, which peaked at ~$8.5 billion in 2025.

The fund's AUM is also nearly as large as $TSLL and the 2x Leveraged Long Nvidia ETF, $NVDL, combined.

By comparison, the Samsung 2x Leveraged Long ETF, also listed in Hong Kong, has an AUM of $2.5 billion, which is 4 times smaller.

Meanwhile, the newly launched Korea-listed 2x Leveraged Long ETFs for SK Hynix and Samsung have attracted +$1.2 billion and +$816 million in just two days following their launch.

Levered AI bets are at record highs.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $87/barrel for the first time since April 21st as President Trump says he is making a "final determination" on the Iran deal.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Investors are buying US software stocks:

The Tech-Software ETF, $IGV, has attracted +$1.5 billion in inflows so far in May, the 3rd-largest since November 2025.

The fund is now on track for its 4th consecutive monthly inflow, the longest streak since the 2020 pandemic recovery.

Over this period, investors have invested +$7.5 billion into the fund.

This week alone, $IGV has seen +$456 million in inflows, marking the 5th consecutive weekly intake.

As a result, the Tech-Software ETF is up +28% since its April low.

Investors are betting on a software sector recovery.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and posts a 9-week win streak for the first time since 2023.

This puts the S&P 500 up +20.1% since the March 30th low, adding +$11.4 TRILLION in market cap in 2 months.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Depending on which commodity index you choose, we are either at a new secular bull market high or still just below it. Either way, the secular trend is up, which suggests that inflation will remain elevated.

The strength in commodities suggests that the TIPS market may be on the cusp of recognizing that it might be a tad complacent.

[Igor Mundstock @igor_mundstock]

Até eu pego esse urânio se é para abrir Hormuz.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea's stock market rises to a fresh record high, now up +101% in 2026, as AI stocks surge.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market surges to a new record high, now officially up another +100% in 2026.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The price Turkey pays for Erdogan's relentless push to stay in power is sky-high interest rates that have taken the country back to the early 2000s. Interest rates these days are far above Turkey's EM peers and we're closing in on a full decade of this...
https://t.co/ipBGkf9GSC

[Roberto Motta @_robertomotta]

Precisa desenhar? Esse juros insalubre do Lula está quebrando o Brasil

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Russia is selling its gold reserves at a rapid pace:

The Bank of Russia's gold holdings dropped -900,000 ounces in the first 4 months of 2026, to 73.9 million ounces, the lowest since February 2022.

Gold prices averaged ~$4,800 per ounce over the same period.

Therefore, if Russia sold gold at the market price, the sales are estimated to have generated ~$4.3 billion in proceeds.

Russia's central bank began reducing its gold reserves last year after the Finance Ministry liquidated gold and foreign currency assets from the National Wellbeing Fund to offset budget deficits driven by declining energy revenues.

Before the pandemic, the Bank of Russia used to be one of the world’s largest official gold buyers, taking in nearly all domestically mined output until it halted purchases in early 2020.

Russia is increasingly selling gold to raise cash.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Bond markets are flashing red.

Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.

This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Global money supply surged by $17T in the last 2 years.

War is not the only driver of inflation.

Policymakers have been pouring liquidity into the system the entire time.

https://t.co/EMI08NkIDG

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 posts its highest close on record, now up +1,100 points since the March 30th bottom.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution is driving historic market momentum:

The S&P 500 excluding AI names is up +16% over the last 2 years and is trading below its February all-time high.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 as a whole is up +42% and has posted 15 all-time highs year-to-date.

The S&P 500 has now surged for 6 consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since October 2024.

Over this period, the index is up +16%, while the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is up +8%.

This comes as 10 stocks have driven 69% of the S&P 500's gains during this time, with the remaining 490 representing just 31%.

Alphabet, $GOOGL, NVIDIA, $NVDA, and Amazon, $AMZN, alone accounted for 15%, 10%, and 8%, respectively.

The AI race is accelerating.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: China’s Treasury holdings as a % of all foreign holdings have declined to 7.3%, the lowest since 2001.

This percentage has declined -21.5 points since the June 2011 peak of 28.8%.

Over this period, China’s holdings have fallen -$627 billion, to $683 billion, the lowest since 2008.

China has now erased half of their Treasuries accumulated between 2000 and 2010.

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China acquired 1 tonne of gold in January, marking its 15th consecutive monthly buying.

As a result, China's total gold holdings are up to a record 2,308 tonnes.

China is shifting from Treasuries to gold.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. January ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Monday

2. December JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday

3. Alphabet, $GOOGL, Reports Earnings - Wednesday

4. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday

5. Amazon, $AMZN, Reports Earnings - Thursday

6. January Jobs Report - Friday

It's all about the labor market and earnings this week.

[Sérgio Bento - Insights @InsightsSB]

Entenda a análise dos dados econômicos dos EUA no dia de hoje, PCE Americano.

#EUA #PCE #MacroEconomia

[Sérgio Bento - Insights @InsightsSB]

Entenda o que está acontecendo no Juros do Japão.

#macroeconomia #juros #japão