Andrey Sizov 🛸

I tweet about ag markets: wheat, corn, Black Sea. The best Black Sea wheat crop forecaster in 2022, 20, 19, 17; agtech enthusiast; ultramarathon runner

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Everyone is watching Russia’s export mess.

The next wheat story may already be going into the ground.

Winter #wheat planting: 4.1 mln ha vs 4.6 mln ha average — a multi-year low for this date.

Is it just dry weather — or are farmers already ditching wheat as domestic prices

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Here's my analysis of today's price action.
Have a great weekend.

#oatt #veryhappyfarmers #china

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

@StockSavvyShay If the new Copilot fluffy enough $MSFT should rally 40% next week

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

US-China trade deal: some agricultural exports agreed, details coming Monday.

USTR Greer says the US will send agricultural products to China as part of the deal, with more details to be released Monday.

Which products? How much? Are US farmers will be "very happy"?

#soybeans

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Strikes on Russia come first. What happens to Ukrainian farmers after Russian retaliation? Apparently, that's secondary.

An industry source quoted by Ukrainian media Strana following a meeting between Zelenskyy and farmers:

"Only some minor half-measures have been promised.

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Plenty of #wheat. Not enough ways to ship it.

Our latest September export estimates, cited by the WSJ:
Russia: 2.1 mmt −56% YoY
Ukraine: 0.9 mmt −52% YoY

The Black Sea bottleneck is hitting both major wheat exporters at once.

Link is attached below.

#wheat #BlackSea #oatt

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

The Kremlin hadn’t been attacking ArcelorMittal’s Ukrainian plant (among other things, the Mittal family’s good connections with Modi were probably taken into account).

That changed a few months ago…

——-

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Looks like #wheat might go limit-down in protest after Xi failed to promise more US #soybean purchases. Two pandas instead!

No ag-related news after the Xi-Trump summit...

#oatt #widowmaker

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Lots of harsh rhetoric about #grain and energy attacks around the Black Sea. But look at the dates: it's been weeks since the last reported attacks on Russian oil export facilities.

In reality, it seems that Kyiv had to make some (temporary?) concession amid US pressure...

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Russia's grain export crisis is now officially an emergency.

Krasnodar, one of Russia's biggest grain-producing regions, has declared a state of emergency after drone attacks and Black Sea port shutdowns left farmers unable to sell large volumes of grain.

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Here we go again. Ukraine is talking about exporting #grain through Baltic ports.

We heard this back in 2022. The problem hasn't changed.

Via Belarus? Hardly realistic.

Via Poland? Two transshipments: Ukraine and the Baltics use broad-gauge railways, Poland uses standard gaug

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

#artofthedeal

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Oof. Black Sea #grain shipments remain extremely limited, but that 1 mmt figure for Russia's September #wheat exports (from Kpler) is simply wrong.

More than 1 mmt was shipped in the first half of the month alone.

SovEcon estimates September exports at 2.1 mmt. Still extremely

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

#Wheat is facing one of the worst supply shocks in decades, with no signs of de-escalation in the Black Sea.

CBOT wheat: multi-week lows anyway.

Makes sense? Our take:

https://t.co/gbPjT41jiZ…

#wheat #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Raising rates into a energy shock.

A negative growth shock that rate hikes can’t fix.

Yes a Policy mistake.

Buy secular growth.

I would love to be a fly on the Wall at Warsh’s and Bessent breakfast.

Great time at @FoxBusiness and catching up with @cvpayne

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Raising rates into a energy shock.

A negative growth shock that rate hikes can’t fix.

Yes a Policy mistake.

Buy secular growth.

I would love to be a fly on the Wall at Warsh’s and Bessent breakfast.

Great time at @FoxBusiness and catching up with @cvpayne

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Bitcoin is the complementary signal. It is a coiled spring because it captures two trades at once: demand for scarce, non-sovereign money, and anticipation of a much larger regulated digital-dollar ecosystem. Washington can regulate the perimeter of crypto, but it cannot manufac

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Contentious thesis.

Both President Trump and Prime Minster Carney are smart pragmatic businessmen.

Businessman with those characteristics find ways to get deals done. That are win win.

Have a great evening.

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

The Clarity Act.

Bitcoin vs. Warren: Consensus Thinks Warren Will Hand Digital Finance to China.

Consensus has made a habit of mistaking political noise for structural power. Its latest error is the conviction that Team Warren, the regulators, bank incumbents, and professiona

[Andrey Sizov 🛸 @Interestedinbur]

Iran Is China’s Hinge in the New Great Game

Here is the thesis Wall Street, much of Washington, and the foreign-policy establishment are missing: Iran is China’s hinge in the new Great Game.

The usual discussion is painfully narrow. Can Iran’s nuclear capacity be degraded?