Guys. As I cover more special situations, I think I need to remind everyone, including myself - some of these finance and corporate professionals are “ethical” because they want to, not because they have to. Need to take their words with a lot of skepticism.
Biasanya kalau korang tengok VVIP terrer gile buat business kat Malaysia sampai jadi level billionaire...tapi takda business overseas, faham2 la kenapa dia "terrer" kat Malaysia je.
Nice middle class Asian family but that ain't winning.
Winning is the patriarch running borderline illegal business in a primary industry in Indonesia, Philippines or Cambodia or misappropriating state assets from a China SOE before moving to Singapore under the Global Investor Programme and hard pivoting into real estate bc it’s the one thing your overseas enemies can never seize.
If patriarch is Singaporean to start with, wealth is from a questionable “trading” / “consulting” business involving members or alleged members of the Malaysian or Thai royal family. A guy who knows people in East Timor might be involved somewhere. Money is invested into cash flow businesses or real estate because it’s the easiest way to launder the money.
Oldest son is groomed to take over the real estate empire / cash flow business but gets sent overseas to university for “exposure” and either turns out gay and decides to pursue art / music or becomes a lawyer / accountant that wants nothing to do with the skeletons in the family closet. Either way they are a disgrace.
Younger son is left to his own devices. Either ends up in Ivy League if naturally high IQ and then goes to New York / California or fucks it all up and is sent to study business management in Australia to save the family face.
The former shows up every 3 CNYs, the months before the patriarchs death and the will reading.
The latter discovers drugs and hookers and will be recalled by the patriarch to permanently occupy a seat as “director” in the family office and various portcos where he can do literally no damage to the family’s reputation or wealth.
The daughter(s) grow up spoiled. The patriarch likely optimized for a hot wife so depending on the dice roll, the daughters either end up hot as fuck like mummy or somewhat resembling a bloated toad like daddy.
The hot ones will at some point attempt an influencer career, possibly venturing into money-losing business ventures like skincare, spas or bars which daddy will write a blank cheque for. Depending on repression level, she might bring home an Indian man at some point just to give dad a heart attack. The 4D chess move here is for the patriarch to throw a minor fit before accepting her choice - they will break up within 6 months in that case. If the patriarch objects, she will marry him and the family will have to cope by constantly exclaiming how cute Chindian babies are.
The ugly ones will go overseas to study something completely worthless and promptly identify as a they/them, likely also finding their way into body positivity movements. Likely dead to the family until she comes crawling back in her 40s to look after the aging parents after realizing she spent 15 years hanging out with retards with nothing to show for it. Christianity might be discovered along the way.
The success in this family is that none of this shit fucking matters because daddy's gains have compounded so hard that he can sit in his GCB with four Ferraris, five mistresses and an entourage of hanger-ons knowing that none of the generation's fuckups matter (except maybe deep down, the Chindian babies if any) because he never had expectations of greatness to begin with.
He will die knowing he can never be overshadowed and that the family's legacy is his and his alone.
And that is what winning as a family looks like.
So I tested my upgraded intern. Just want to see if anything I should be worried about (like, taking over my job, one example).
The intern gives good background. But it ain’t a storyteller.
Credit analysts/investors need to be storytellers. Because debt is a story about human.
Was impressed briefly by a fund talking about their contrarian approach to investment. They described their team as the world-class thinkers and made you “feel” safe to put your money in their fund.
Since inception, the fund underperformed the benchmark by more than 200bps…
Imagine you're an investor in 1610.
You and your boys are proud owners of Dutch East India Co. stock, which was granted a monopoly on all Dutch trade in Asia by the government. Bullish.
And yet, even after raking in profits since its 1602 IPO, the company refuses to pay a dividend. Stingy.
The first activist investor, Isaac Le Maire, starts publicly calling out management for enriching themselves at shareholders' expense and shorts the stock.
As momentum builds, management finally agrees to pay out dividends to shareholders. Nice!
There's just one catch...
It was paid out in spices. Not cash.
Shareholders received "mace at a value of 75% of the nominal capital".
That's right, the first dividend in history was paid in spices. How far we've come!
So, what’s the reason if a person doesn’t offer to pay a bribe?
(A) moral
(B) scared of punishment
(C) no money to pay. But will pay if he has the money
Oh, this one is great
Let me explain the beauty of this in very simple terms:
Company A issues a loan to Company B.
Company A then places a bet that B will default on this loan - the bet is with a third party.
A and B arrange a default amongst themselves.
B misses a payment, triggers a default, A gets paid $$$ from the third party.
P.S. In real life, Blackstone ended up getting sued by the hedge fund on the other side of the transaction and the "manufactured default" was called off. What a story!
*FIRST BRANDS CEO PATRICK JAMES WEIGHS LEAVING ROLE
Patrick James, the reclusive CEO/founder of First Brands, is considering stepping down from the bankrupt car parts maker as its swift collapse has prompted a slew of investigations amidst allegations of fraud in its significant use of “off balance sheet” factoring facilities.
Multiple red flags have come to light. For starters, nobody knows what Patrick James looks like or his background. Despite being the driving force behind First Brands, very few facts are known about the founder. Corporate access, a common gesture in the broadly syndicated loan market, was extremely limited for investors.
The First Brands bankruptcy has ensnared financial institutions, but none have been hit as hard as Jefferies, the investment bank charged with arranging and syndicating First Brands debt to its clients for over a decade. $JEF
About PC blowing up: it will make other PC funds think they are smarter than [insert the funds who are in trouble with First Brand] because they did [insert excel calculation].
The thing is, no one is smarter than anyone when the investment decisions are based on excel.
Jefferies on First Brands:
The good news: Direct losses appear to be limited to <$50M (est.)
The bad news: You were their banker for 10+ years
The worse news: $2.3B allegedly vanished
The worst news: Every potential client now knows this
Sometimes being the go-to bank for risky credits has consequences
JPMorgan M&A masterclass:
- Buy company for $175M (based on fake data)
- Pay $115M to defend sellers who defrauded you (merger agreement says you have to)
- Get $0 back (she pays 10% of income for 20 years post-prison)
JPM got a very expensive lesson in due diligence
$KKR Partner Alisa Wood at a BBG event:
"There are 19,000 PE funds in the US. There are 14,000 McDonald's in the US. How are there more PE funds than McDonald's? ...and by the way, they're all not created equal. So the spread between the best managers and the kind of mediocre third quartile managers are over 1400 basis points of dispersion. If you look in public equities, for that same spread, it's 200 to 300 basis points. So what does that tell you? It tells you the who matters more than the what,the people and the managers that you choose"