小飞哥

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@Bcat6842 @ershiqizai 一点不靠谱

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@hibtc37 先下后上？

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

The last 3 months of the Bear Market are usually very bearish $BTC 📉

2014: -57%
2018: -50%
2022: -33%

2026: ???
IMO it could easily be -30%. Get ready 😏

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@woaitaoershi @WallStreet0Name 拉倒8w大概率

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@CryptoDanta 梭了

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@KelseyWeb3VC 不错，6w应该是底了

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

#Bitcoin – What's Next?

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

THE FINAL TRAP: Today I want to speak about the most important development on the chart right now, and it is going to be very interesting. I am watching the MA200 weekly closely, and what we are seeing is what looks like a retest of the MA200 weekly. Hold on, this is exactly the moment where things get dangerous. Let me take you back to 2022 to explain what is loading right now. In 2022, Bitcoin lost the MA200 weekly and everyone believed it was over. Then something happened that trapped everyone. A few weeks later, Bitcoin regained the MA200 weekly, and not only that, BTC printed three weekly closes above it. Bitcoin pumped 10% above the MA200 weekly in 2022, and guess what happened with the narrative? Everyone thought the bottom was in. "Wow, MA200 weekly reclaimed, this is bullish, the bear is over." This is exactly what they said. And so many bought right above the MA200 weekly, believing it was the confirmation they needed. Just to get trapped again. This was the final trap, and this is what led directly to the capitulation event. The reclaim of the MA200 weekly in 2022 was not the bottom signal, it was the trap that preceded the final flush to 15-16k.

Why This Matters Right Now:

Look at where we are today. Bitcoin lost the MA200 weekly. And now BTC is doing exactly what happened in 2022. It is testing the MA200 weekly from below, and there is a very real possibility that we see the same repeat. So in my idea there if we see a weekly close above MA200 Weekly, it will be definitely a trap! And for this case I told two weeks ago at 60k that I am placing short orders at 68-69k in case market allows to visit. This is exactly the setup I have been warning about for the last two weeks when I spoke about the white and blue lines converging and the death cross loading. The MA200 weekly retest is the key ingredient of the final trap, and history is about to repeat with almost perfect timing.

The reason this trap works every single time is because retail cannot resist a reclaim of a major moving average. When Bitcoin closes above the MA200 weekly, every one will be bullish and start FOMO buying. And this is exactly why it works. Market makers need this trap to build the maximum amount of long liquidity before the final flush. Without this trap, the capitulation would not have enough fuel. The final trap is what generates the liquidity for the final flush. This is how bear markets always end, and this is how this one will end too.

Why This Aligns With the CBB

If the 2022 pattern repeats, the final flush after the trap lands us directly at the CBB, the 40-50k zone where the BlackRock ETF launched. My timeline of September-October 2026 for the bottom aligns perfectly with the timing of a MA200 weekly reclaim happening now, followed by a fake bullish move in July-August, followed by the final rejection and capitulation in September-October. Every piece of the puzzle continues to fit. (Visit our website: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J) The 2022 playbook, the death cross setup, the aSOPR realized losses, the MA200 weekly trap, and the CBB target all point to the same conclusion.

My Positioning
Both shorts remain fully open. The 120k big short and the 80,500 average are in deep profit. New short orders at 68-69k remain prepared in case the market allows another visit. The plan is for the macro move toward the CBB, but the sideways zone between 57-68k is not over yet. I would not bet on an upside move, but I would bet that if the market allows another visit to 68-69k, I add more into my shorts. I am not interested in adding below this zone. If the MA200 weekly reclaim scenario plays out and BTC pumps 10% above the line, this is the perfect zone for me to add aggressively.

Calendar This Week:

FOMC minutes from the June 16-17 meeting release Wednesday July 8 at 2:00 p.m. This is a major event because it was Warsh's first FOMC as Chair, and the meeting delivered a clear hawkish shift with the median federal funds forecast implying the potential for one rate HIKE before year-end 2026, not a cut. Exactly what I predicted in the June 14 Sunday report when I said the dovish pivot would not be delivered cleanly. The minutes will show how divided the Committee was and how strong the hawkish argument was internally. Any confirmation of the hawkish tone will give us more sell pressure. Initial jobless claims Thursday July 9. Consumer credit data also Wednesday July 8.]

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THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@BIT_1AA @love_zxy520 反弹三个月，那不得去摸8万。？

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@lanhubiji 这个画的大饼可以

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@jjsqqk 继续多。

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@cfsq143 @sanmage88 那你是真牛逼，最高点止盈

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@Eth527 进了，同意一下

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@hibtc37 怎么还不下去呀？

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@ShannonHar2140 大饼先反弹64问题不大吧

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@xtony1314 不过58开空确实早了一点。扛一扛问题不大

[Caligh 土豆 @CryptoCaligh]

感觉上现在真正有趣的可能不是 BTC，而是 ETH。
我已经记不清上一次把 ETH 当作行业领头羊来画图是什么时候了。那是一段美好的回忆，因为 ETH 比 BTC 更具趋势性。当 ETH 开始移动时，它往往跳得又猛又快。所以 7 月份将会非常有趣，就看它怎么走。正如我几天前所说，我已经看到一些原生链代币开始展现出强度，之前也发过我感兴趣的项目，如果有留意的话。从目前观察来看，在 1800 下方，它还没有真正爆发，所以我们现在还不算太晚。但如果还不建仓，可能很快就会错过良机了。

[Caligh 土豆 @CryptoCaligh]

BTC 跌到 57k 附近时，很多空头在这个区域被收割了。MSTR 和 Saylor 每天都被狂轰滥炸，说 Saylor 要破产了，saylor也表示会卖 BTC 来支付股息。然而，我们还是没能继续向下突破空头们一直喊的 40k。这明显就是一个底部和低点。如果 MSTR 要倒闭、Saylor 要卖 BTC 支付股息都不能把市场打下去，还有什么事件能做到？IBIT 的资金流出/流入也已经反转了。我预计价格会缓慢而稳健地上涨，先收复 63k，然后是 66k 阻力转支撑位。我们必须一级一级地观察。很多空头仍然认为这只是去 40k 之前的反弹救市。为了杀死这些空头，价格必须缓慢地涨到 80k，然后是 100k，到那时这些空头还在幻想 40k，根本没进场买底。等价格涨到 120k，他们还没买的时候才会意识到自己错了，但已经太晚了他们会像 2017 年和 2020 年那样 FOMO 追高入场。

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@AirdropAlchemis 哎，我也输了。

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Bounced from the monthly open ✅

As expected, we formed a bearish narrative heading into the MO and the quarterly close, and, as a result, bitcoin:native moved higher.

Next key date to observe is the 5th. Timing is everything.

[小飞哥 @inusKinga]

@ershiqizai @linux0888 托尼58的空跑了？