This is checkmate by Iran. They know we have no munitions left. And far from begging, they’re openly saying THERE WILL BE NO DEAL between Iran and the United States under Donald Trump. Trump has officially given us the most spectacular geopolitical failure/defeat in U.S. history.
Bessent’s daily routine..
5am: Wake up. Check 10 year yield.
5:05am: Check Truth Social to see if Trump fired me in the night
5:10am: Send message to group chat of all my commodities hedge fund buddies: “Hormuz deal coming today - max short 🛢️! 3==D🚀”
5:15am: Check 10 year yield
5:30am: Call the SPR guy: “I got your voicemail, I don’t care if the caverns collapsed…get a shovel and release the barrels motherfucker.”
5:45am: Call Kevin Warsh and just breathe heavily on the phone
6:00am: Send message to Japanese PM- “I know you’re awake if I find out you sold a single bond we’ll make Hiroshima look like a grocery store firecracker.”
6:15am: Check the 10 year yield
6:30am: Accidentally pocket dial Yellen. Neither of us hangs up. 30 minutes of silence.
7am: Text Barak Ravid “Hi this is anonymous source again war is over today, Iran begging for a deal. Print it.”
7:05am: Read WSJ…schedule rage tweet at a journalist who accused me of manipulating Japanese currency
7:15am: Buy $10B more Yen
7:30am: Record CNBC interview: “We’re not manipulating Yen. Also Hormuz is definitely opening today.”
7:37am: Check 10 year yield
8am-10am: Stare blankly at the Treasury auction schedule while a tear slowly rolls down my face
10:15am - Trump: “Yessir, I did do the Warsh heavy breathing call”
10:17am - Day is over, time to return to my sarcophagus before the sun gets too bright…Set alarm for 2am to check Japan opened correctly. They know what happens if they didn’t listen ☢️
11:27am - snap awake in cold sweat and quickly check 10 Year Yield
The NFL after the World Cup is finally over and they can revert all the natural grass back to artificial turf for the league's biggest stars to tear their ACLs on
The US economy is now dependent on AI spending:
AI investment now accounts for more than 25% of US GDP growth, the largest contribution on record.
This includes spending on software, IT equipment, R&D, and data centers.
In other words, for every $4 of US economic growth today, over $1 is coming from AI investment.
This comes as AI spending is up to a record ~8% of US GDP.
By comparison, spending on IT equipment, software, and R&D peaked at ~6.5% of GDP during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble.
US economic growth is now all about AI.
The U.S. soccer federation is a poor return on invested capital.
I played soccer for 20+ years.
Grassroots.
Academy.
D1 college.
Pursued professionally after.
And I’ll say the quiet part out loud:
The US soccer infrastructure is broken.
In America, we treat playing D1 soccer like it is the peak achievement.
For most families, clubs, coaches, and players, the entire youth soccer machine is built around one goal:
Get recruited.
Get a scholarship.
Play college soccer.
But if the objective is to produce world-class players, D1 soccer is a terrible development path.
From 18-22, some of the most important technical development years of your career, you are preparing for a 3-4 month season built largely around athleticism, direct play, set pieces, fitness, and survival.
Now compare that to an 18-year-old in Spain, Argentina, Morocco, Italy, England, or France.
That player has likely been in a professional environment for years.
Training daily.
Playing meaningful matches year-round.
Competing against grown professionals.
Getting thousands more touches.
Learning how to solve the game under pressure.
The gap is massive.
And it shows.
American players are usually athletic.
They are usually fit.
They usually compete hard.
But at the highest levels, that is not enough.
The biggest difference is technical comfort.
We do not move the ball like Spain.
We do not combine like Argentina.
We do not play with the same fluidity, rhythm, and confidence you see from countries where the game is embedded into the culture from childhood.
That comes down to volume.
Volume of touches.
Volume of street soccer.
Volume of futsal.
Volume of unstructured play.
Volume of high-level training environments.
Volume of meaningful games.
In the US, youth soccer is expensive, overly organized, overly coached, tournament-driven, and too often built around winning games at 13 instead of developing players for 23.
Parents spend thousands.
Clubs charge thousands.
Travel teams fly all over the country.
Showcases become the product.
Recruiting becomes the scoreboard.
But the return on invested capital is poor.
We probably spend more money on youth soccer than almost any country in the world, yet the technical output does not match the investment.
That is a broken operating model.
And like any business, if the output is weak, you do not blame the customer.
You inspect the system.
The US has talent.
The US has athletes.
The US has money.
The US has facilities.
But the foundation is wrong.
We built a pay-to-play, college-recruiting machine and confused it for a world-class player development system.
Those are not the same thing.
Until we fix the grassroots layer, increase meaningful touches, make development less dependent on family income, and stop treating college soccer as the top of the mountain, the US will keep underperforming relative to its resources.
I’m not saying this to trash US Soccer.
I’m saying it because I lived it.
And if we actually want to become a powerhouse, we have to be honest about the infrastructure first.