EZEV

Building smarter models, not riskier bets. EZEV = expected value made easy.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

Heroic ML @ 1.88 cashes. ✅

YTD: +7.14u | Record: 20–11 (31 bets) | ROI: 23.0%

Edges showing through — steady climb continues.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Heroic ML @ 1.88

No-vig fair: 50.0% | Model: 53.0%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.0 pp | +6.0% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.94u.

Thin margin, but model shows Heroic slight value at this number.

YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

NRG/Legacy Over 2.5 @ 1.90 cashes. ✅

YTD: +6.26u | Record: 19–11 (30 bets) | ROI: 20.9%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on NRG/Legacy Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.90

No-vig fair: 48.64% | Model: 52.84%

EV ≈ +0.07u (+4.2 pp | +7.4% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.07u; SD ≈ 0.97u.

Both teams fighting for a Major Stage 2 invite — model expects a close battle.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on NRG/Legacy Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.90

No-vig fair: 48.64% | Model: 52.84%

EV ≈ +0.07u (+4.2 pp | +7.4% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.07u; SD ≈ 0.97u.

Both teams fighting for a Major Stage 2 invite — model expects a close battle.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Heroic ML @ 1.88

No-vig fair: 50.0% | Model: 53.0%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.0 pp | +6.0% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.94u.

Thin margin, but model shows Heroic slight value at this number.

YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

@zooyawkcity Nice jinx dumbass

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

2–4 day, down –2.43u.

✅ G2/Mongolz Over 2.5 @ 1.85
✅ NiP ML @ 1.72
❌ FURIA/Astralis Over 2.5 @ 1.90
❌ Astralis ML @ 2.50
❌ Passion UA/NaVi Over 2.5 @ 2.10
❌ 9INE ML @ 1.72

YTD: +5.36u | Record: 18–11 (29 bets) | ROI: 18.5%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on 9INE ML @ 1.72

No-vig fair: 53.79% | Model: 57.04%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.25 pp | +5.7% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.94u.

Another spot where market underrates — 9INE slightly stronger on my sheet.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Passion UA/NaVi Over 2.5 Maps @ 2.10

No-vig fair: 44.0% | Model: 48.2%

EV ≈ +0.05u (+4.2 pp | +4.8% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.05u; SD ≈ 1.01u.

Series looks scrappier than market implies — live for 3 maps.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on NiP ML @ 1.72

No-vig fair: 53.79% | Model: 57.49%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+3.7 pp | +5.7% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.93u.

Model likes NiP’s win rate more than market — playable edge.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

Passion UA ML @ 1.92 ✅

Tagged and bagged.

YTD: +7.79u
Record: 16–7 (23 bets)
ROI: ≈ 33.1%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Passion UA ML @ 1.92

No-vig fair: 48.1% | Model: 52.4%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+4.3 pp | +6.1% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.99u.

Model makes Passion UA a small favorite — taking the number.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on G2/Mongolz Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.85

No-vig fair: 50.0% | Model: 53.0%

EV ≈ +0.05u (+3.0 pp | +4.5% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.05u; SD ≈ 0.99u.

Live dog spot for Mongolz makes this lean to three maps — thin but playable.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Astralis ML @ 2.50

No-vig fair: 37.2% | Model: 43.0%

EV ≈ +0.08u (+5.8 pp | +7.5% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.24u.

Books still underrating Astralis — model gives them a live shot.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Passion UA ML @ 1.92

No-vig fair: 48.1% | Model: 52.4%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+4.3 pp | +6.1% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 0.99u.

Model makes Passion UA a small favorite — taking the number.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on FURIA/Astralis Over 2.5 Maps @ 1.90

No-vig fair: 48.64% | Model: 51.64%

EV ≈ +0.03u (+3.0 pp | +3.3% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.03u; SD ≈ 0.97u.

Model leans toward a 3-map series — playable edge.

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

No time for picks, head quant vibe coder @zooyawkcity is just getting off work and needs to sleep. Back at it tomorrow

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

Dead team beats Tyloo! Let’s goooo baby.

Tyloo ML @ 1.82 @ 1.5u ❌

Head quant @zooyawkcity is sadly still at working so plays will be released late.

YTD: +6.87u
Record: 15-7 (22 bets)
ROI: ≈ 30.5%

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1.5u on Tyloo ML @ 1.82

Implied: 50.81% | Model: 58.00%

EV ≈ +0.08u (+7.2 pp | +5.6% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.35u.

Market has Tyloo slight favs — my model makes them solidly ahead.

YTD: +8.37u

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1.5u on Tyloo ML @ 1.82

Implied: 50.81% | Model: 58.00%

EV ≈ +0.08u (+7.2 pp | +5.6% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.35u.

Market has Tyloo slight favs — my model makes them solidly ahead.

YTD: +8.37u

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

Went 2-2 on the slate today 🔄

✅ Aurora ML @ 2.00
✅ Falcons -1.5 @ 1.92
❌ Astralis -1.5 @ 2.50
❌ Lynn Vision ML @ 1.72 (2u)

Net: -1.08u
YTD: +8.37u | Record: 15-6 (21 bets)

Small step back but model’s still printing — back at it tomorrow 🔄🔥

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Aurora ML @ 2.00

Implied: 46.27% | Model: 53.00%

EV ≈ +0.06u (+6.73 pp | +6.0% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.06u; SD ≈ 1.00u.

Market has FURIA favored — my model makes Aurora the better team here. We fire.

YTD: +9.45u

[EZEV @itsEZEV]

1u on Astralis -1.5 @ 2.50

Implied: 37.2% | Model: 43.0%

EV ≈ +0.08u (+5.8 pp | +7.5% ROI)
Monte Carlo (100k): mean +0.08u; SD ≈ 1.24u.

Market’s too short on the sweep — model has Astralis cleaning this up more often.

YTD: +9.45u