Future Self

you dont have to travel the globe to travel the heart

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

That “TACO” you’re selling has a lot in it at this point. So much “tacoing” that we’re now months in… the world will never look at the straight the same. The world has changed, and risk premium is pushing alternatives. The spice must flow. The fat tails, unlikely (for US) and a world where two and four yr US poli can’t change that.. there is no TACO, in that sense.. no going back, for better/worse

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@MarioNawfal “With friends like these…” is a two way street, Mario. Shutting down elections, snatching citizens, acting like victory is for the taking while attacking civilian infrastructure does not put the best light on our “besties” over there in Ukraine.

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

“I would never have dared; and if I had dared, I certainly never would have dared stop.”
~ Churchill about the Suez Canal crisis I think

US two and four year political cycles and international reluctance of “allies” to embrace very difficult choices and truths about global insecurities make it feel like Trump will power through to be sure whomever is elected next will be dealing with a world with no U-turns available, and Hormuz becomes nearly benign due to workarounds.. the spice must flow; markets will adapt.

This of course does not address Russian war, Canadian trade conflict, Venezuelan stability, Japanese bond market etc. complexity of forcing functions are many and up in the air. I see Trump as accelerating the collision course of imbalances because the longer we abide the status quo, the worse the wake up calls become..

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@TheJadeWarwick Also, you are stunning… 🤷‍♂️🤩 I’m just glad we do make the rules again 🤓😉✨

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@latricex 🤝 glad I waited to the end. Was coming to say I’m now conservative in that I want to conserve the founding liberal values of individual liberty.

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@Brad_Setser Am I taking crazy pills or shouldnt the uncertainties and opacity of the matter be disqualifying enough for any to want to continue business with China as usual 🤷‍♂️ the fact that we can’t quite know something of such consequence is wild

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@Geopolitics_Emp 🤣 nothing to offer is such a ridiculous statement.. so much wrong about this take.

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@CynicalPublius I heard we are gonna be calling them Donald Ducks now

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@SantiagoAuFund I can hear the western whistle 😗🎶💥

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

I’ve wanted to talk to you for quite some time now, and pick your brain! Tremendous talks, and thoughtfulness. I’d love to hear your take on what I call the Failure of Unilateral Moral Adjustment.. where everyone doing the ‘right’ thing at the same time is wrong for the system.

We might call it, in some regard, a balance sheet recession.

When I was a bartender in Tennessee I remember thinking to myself that because I make the lion share of my money from tips, I’m gonna over serve my patrons alcohol. That’s where I get my premium on my time.

If one day, I alone, wake up, and decide to stop because it’s wrong, then I will probably make a substantial amount less. The restaurant, and its employees will carry on about the same, all else equal. But if everyone in my city, let’s say, wakes the next morning, and agrees with me, and sells to the legal limit of two beers an hour ish, I’d venture that many if not most drinking establishments would suffer, if not close…

Once most countries seriously ask, “What’s GDP for?” And begin making moves at the same time, are we not too far into a global arrangement to make the ‘Moral Adjustment” work?

#moralbucks #whatshouldadollardo

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@TheMichaelEvery 😧 what a novel concept! 🫩🤝😅

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

I’ve had to learn the difference between supporting and enabling. What I’ve come to realize is that if I care more about the outcome than you, I’ve enabled your behavior. If you care more, then my actions become support. My same action becomes one or the other depending on how it’s received. This begs the question of how to know if the other cares more or less, and that will become evident through their action.

If I cover your rent, and then next day you’re waking, and cracking beers at noon… I’ve enabled you.

If, on the other hand, I cover your rent, and the next day you are up early, out looking for work… my act, the same act in both cases, becomes support instead of enabling 🙏😌✨

I will always try to support those I love, and wish to have in my life.. but I’ve learned I will lose that ability to help anyone when my actions get taken advantage of, and I lose myself. The first person to be sure not to enable into bad habit is yourself! Support yourself!

I am not perfect in the promise, but I believe in the promise of support

Godspeed out there

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

I’ve had to learn the difference between supporting and enabling. What I’ve come to realize is that if I care more about the outcome than you, I’ve enabled your behavior. If you care more, then my actions become support. My same action becomes one or the other depending on how it’s received. This begs the question of how to know if the other cares more or less, and that will become evident through action.

If I cover your rent, and then next day you’re waking, and cracking beers at noon… I’ve enabled you.

If, on the other hand, I cover your rent, and the next day you are up early, out looking for work… my act, the same act in both cases, becomes support instead of enabling 🙏😌✨

I will always try to support those I love, and wish to have in my life.. but I’ve learned I will lose that ability to help anyone when my actions get taken advantage of, and I lose myself. The first person to be sure not to enable into bad habit is yourself! Support yourself!

I am not perfect in the promise, but I believe in the promise of support

Godspeed out there

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@lthlnkso 🤝✨

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@Kevin_McKernan Long popcorn 🍿🤲✨

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@SantiagoAuFund ⚡️ Kinetic • Potential • Kinetic ⚡️

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@the_jefferymead Nia/Hao sent me 🤣🤝

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@thestustustudio 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@Caitlin_N_Rose @AlexBerenson Guesses in science are hypotheses, and those need testing if they are theoretically possible.. in medicine those need to be listed and administration waits for the results

[Future Self @J_Niles_23]

@Caitlin_N_Rose @AlexBerenson Theoretically means there is a plausible mechanism through which miscarriages could happen.. that’s a red flag 🚩