Chuck

Bowman Collector / Investor

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Who is on my current buy list?

Luis Lara
Andy Perez
Sean Keys
Johnny King
Dylan O’Rae
Braylon Payne
Kendall George
Miguel Sime Jr.
Austin Charles

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

I guess the Orioles thought Vance Honeycutt was fixable and worthy of a first rounder so anything is possible

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

can someone explain why Justin LeBron is being mocked to go in the 1st round?

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@BigBobsCards The goat!

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

It seems like you’d be absolutely shocked then by how many players have been offered pre-arb extensions and have turned them down because they’re typically terrible deals for the players that severely limits their upside and makes it so they can’t hit the open market until after their prime. Even just comparing this to the Cooper Pratt deal, this is a steal.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

I don’t think you’re grasping how little $4.4m aav is for a player who is 21 and ready for the big leagues, when a new CBA is coming with minimum salary increases and possibly changes to
Arb that will value players like him way more than the past where strictly antiquated metrics have been valued. They get the option on his age 28-30 seasons without having to guarantee very much at all! Making this textbook low risk, high reward. If he’s a dud, they’re not on the hook for much. Look at how the market values defense only CFers on the market. Tyrone Taylor just got 3.8 in his arb 3 year under the current CBA and he’s 32. (3.8 adjusted for inflation in 5 years is ~4.3). Harrison Bader got 10.25. Now imagine for a second Lara can hit a bit. By your logic, teams should never sign any player to a contract because they could stink down the line. This deal is an absolute steal.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

You might want to brush up on probability and risk:reward tradeoffs. Every decision in life carries some sort of risk. The key is weighing it against the potential reward and pricing it in. High-level teams and businesses are professionals at this. Individuals without much experience are usually bad at this. Based on how the Brewers have operated over the last several seasons with the budget they have, it’s safe to assume they have an edge.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

They’re actually not really even betting on him being good based off the numbers they guaranteed. They’re betting on him being at least mediocre, which for his profile is a pretty safe bet. Could anything happen? Sure. But that’s where the statisticians come in and assess risk and probability. The Brewers surely have performed a robust risk assessment and came out of that saying the risk is relatively low with this type of guarantee while the long term savings might be massive, making it a bet they’re willing to take all day. I think you’re also discounting the fact that minimum salaries are going to go up as early as next year making this deal look even better for Milwaukee.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@dahldoescards I wish he played in a better market and that I bought more of his autos. He can play!

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

How old were Perkins and Ortiz when they debuted and how old is Lara now? That’s the answer to all this. They just got Lara for all his prime years at essentially the base case for his expected output. Perkins and Ortiz they have locked up for their prime years without an extension due to their ages. If Lara is even remotely good, they just bought out 3 years of FA by paying him likely less than he would have gotten going the traditional route through Arb. Minimum salaries are going to go up in the next CBA. His AAV on this deal is nothing. They didn’t have to guarantee much at all to receive complete control of weather they want his first 3 years of FA to be with the Brewers at a very cheap rate.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@jagephillips @vqs9bzmq4r @Upper_Beck JJ, you know what’s up

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Well Joey Ortiz is 28 in one month and Blake Perkins is almost 30, both only entering year 1 of arb, so absolutely not lol. I’m not sure how you can even throw them out there as a comparison for this situation with Lara. They both debuted in their mid 20s, not at 21. They are on complete different trajectories. The brewers have those guys under team control for all their prime years and by the time they’re eligible for FA, they will be in their 30s and not have a real market for a large deal.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Stop using MLB Pipeline and baseball America as your bible. There’s a reason the low budget teams succeeding are prioritizing speed and defense. This is an elite OFer with wheels. And he also has a great hit tool. If the power surge is even remotely real, that’s just icing on top.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@vqs9bzmq4r @Upper_Beck It’s like a +EV bet. Teams will take that gamble all day, every day. His AAV is peanuts. Minimum salaries will likely go up in the next CBA and inflation has been crazy high. This is such a low risk bet with immense upside.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@lookbryand @Upper_Beck The brewers front office made a great move. They’ve been playing chess. Props to them for getting this deal done with almost no downside but insanely high upside.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Club option on those years. If he stinks and isn’t an MLB player, they can cut ties with no financial repercussions. If he’s average or elite, they just got a true CFer in his prime years for peanuts. He likely won’t get much after this deal is over as he has a speed & hit over power profile. The brewers just got him through all his prime years for pennies on the dollar and Lara just sold himself insanely short. MLB teams must be LOVING this deal and about to send offers to other international prospects they can sniff the desperation from.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@Upper_Beck Sorry! Horrible for the player. Amazing amazing amazing for the brewers

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

@Upper_Beck Im not. Throw away the outdated rankings out there. This is an elite CFer who can hit. This is a bet against himself as a player. There is no argument where this is a good deal. He is betting that he will be a below average MLB player

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Remember how I’ve been shouting from the rooftops about Lara? Horrendous deal he agreed to but he should be making his debut very soon! Still a buy

[Jeff Passan @JeffPassan]

Outfield prospect Luis Lara and the Milwaukee Brewers are in agreement on a seven-year, $31 million contract extension that includes three club options, sources tell ESPN. Lara, 21, has dominated Triple-A this season. Deal maxes out at $79 million.

[Chuck @JackDelavano]

Arrow pointed directly up on Arana! This is a dude. The power numbers will be there