roughly 20% of insider holdings unlock thursday. about 911.5m shares. and the conditional extra 10% only triggers if the stock held 30% above the $135 ipo price into the print, so a strong earnings ironically brings more supply thus driving the price down
π¨MUST WATCH: $1.5T SpaceX $SPCX reports earnings today.
Here are the 3 possible outcomes:
BULL CASE:
Revenue beats $6.8B, Starlink beats $3.82B and losses shrink sharply.
Options imply shares could rise +10% to +15%, reaching roughly $126 to $132.
This would put the $135 IPO price back in sight.
BASE CASE:
SpaceX meets expectations but continues spending heavily on AI and Starship.
The stock may also struggle to rise because $104B in insider shares become eligible for sale two days later.
BEAR CASE:
Revenue misses, losses remain near Q1 levels or spending rises further.
A -10% to -15% move would send shares toward roughly $97 to $103, marking new lows.
At its current price, SpaceX is worth around $1.5T.
To become a $3 TRILLION company again, the stock must nearly DOUBLE.
What's your call?
Massive SPCX shorting ahead of earnings: 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float: S3
Today, weβre launching Tauβs humanoid cleaning service in San Francisco at $30 per hour.
Access is initially invite-only as we scale operations. If you donβt have an invite yet, join the waitlist at https://t.co/JrRpjIzRZv.
All footage is shown at 1Γ speed. Each humanoid is jointly controlled by a human operator and AI.
rate hike is not out of the question - the shooting might've stopped for now at Hormuz but Lloyd's insurers pulled war coverage from any Saudi-touch vessel, Saudi exports are down to one route.
the insurance market, not Trump, not OPEC and not the Fed, is setting the oil supply curve that Warsh has to react to.
Itβs official:
Apple, $AAPL, is now the second company in history to surpass $5 trillion in market cap.
This makes Apple the largest company in the world, now 6% larger than Nvidia.
If you invested $10,000 in Apple in 2003, you would have $15.5 million today.
Truly historic.
+1
there is so much of the chip stack that China is still missing.
the PoC LPP only produced 30W while ASML commercial systems produces 700W.
and that's only the light.
as you get further down the stack, i.e mirrors, helium etc, the more China falls behind.
Chinese DUV Scare: Overblown
If you take a look at ASML 2023 earnings (1), and ratio by China's share of system-sales revenue, you will figure out China stockpiled around 300-350 DUV units. This is enough to last China until 2029.
Two Important Contexts
First, by 2029 all leading-edge logic and advance DRAM will be on EUV and start moving some to High-NA EUV. The Chinese DUV method to make 7nm, DUV multiple patterning, will not scale to high yield mass production for 2nm.
Second, the ability to make DUV is very far from EUV and even farther from High-NA EUV. DUV has been around used in semiconductor fabs since 1990 and it wasn't until 2019 until EUV began to replace DUV.
Chinese people are smart, are we really not expecting them to figure out DUV when the west had DUV in their fabs in the 1990?
There's a 29 year gap between DUV and EUV. It will take China at the minimum 8+ years and likely more to figure out EUV.
Conclusion
1. Whether or not China can make DUV is irrelevant between now and 2029 because China has enough stockpiled.
2. After 2029, DUV will not be relevant for leading semiconductor fabs because DUV multiple patterning has reached limits of high yield mass production for 2nm and beyond.
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in case anyone missed it, the big robots going viral today. we fighting them august 15 in SF, and if you win our @rek sim this weekend you can control one.
$TSM beat their Q2 2026 earnings and stated that they will invest a further 100B into US chips manufacturing.
looks like the music hasn't stopped just yet
We're rolling out a small tweak to boost visibility of your posts to your mutuals (people who you follow back).
We noticed this data was missing from the algo and it made your friends appear less in your replies. This resulted in the reply section feeling more like a battleground with people you don't recognize.
This should also help clusters form around interests more easily, which many people have asked for.