The loudest voices during a bear market are almost always wrong.
The ones calling for zero are too bearish.
The ones calling for immediate recovery are too optimistic.
The quietest voices, the ones saying 'hold your position and wait,' are usually the ones worth listening to.
Bear markets reward patience more than prediction.
$BTC $63.8k is the line.
Hold it = institutional accumulation continues.
Lose it = cascade into $61k real quick.
USD strong. Fear at 15. This is where they separate the buyers from the sellers.
Bitcoin
Just sharing the data. This does not mean BTC can't go lower, and yes I totally cherry picked the 9H timeframe, but at the end of the day, It is still DATA - not narrative -which is all I see out there.
The 9H RSI has been this oversold only 3 other times in the last 3 years.
2/3 occurrences led to a boring 2-3 month sideways accumulation chop period before exploding off the lows. Whats interesting about the timing and similarities is that if It were to occur here, It would line up almost perfectly with the classic 4 year cycle bottom timing.
1/3 was a pretty vicious V shape reversal. Least likely imo and not banking on this, but hey its in the data 🤷🏻♂️
Bought more #Bitcoin at $62k 💰
- $BTC just tagged the 200 Week MA; 1st time in 3 years
- Daily RSI now in the 16's
- Bullish divergence on 4H still shaping up
When everything's red and whales are REMOVING coins from exchanges... that's not panic. That's positioning. Fear at 27 has historically been the setup. 24 days to the Fed meeting — they know something.
$XRP +8.34% while USD crushes everything else. BTC flat. ETH flat. That's institutional selection in real time — she's not following the script because smart money knows what's coming.
" It can appear at times that everyone has reached the conclusion that the Heard is Wrong.
What I mean is that Contrarianism itself has become too popular,
and thus contrariansim can be mistaken for Heard Behavior."
- The Most Important Thing ; Howard Marks
Almost no one is talking about the biggest regulatory catalyst on the board right now.
The CLARITY Act, House already passed it and it is sitting in the Senate.
If you're wanting to play beneficiaries $COIN and $HOOD are the cleanest ways to play it.
COIN largely for the last three years has made investors hesitant due to a lawsuit potentially looming overhead. Wells notice. SEC suit. Every listing a coinflip. The day CLARITY becomes law all of that goes in the trash and the stock starts trading on what the business actually is.
Once it passes $COIN is not a crypto stock anymore, it is an exchange. Same business model as $ICE $NDAQ and $CME. Those names trade at premium valuations because they are boring legal money printers and $COIN now becomes the same thing.
You do not need volume to go vertical. You just need the stock to start trading like the exchange it actually is.
$HOOD is the other side of it.
They have been holding back on crypto for years because every new listing could land them in court. That is not a demand problem, that is a self imposed handcuff and CLARITY is what takes the cuffs off.
Once it passes they can list more tokens, layer in staking, add custody, plug in stablecoin rails through the GENIUS Act. Everything that was locked in the regulatory cage is suddenly on the menu.
Crypto makes way more money per trade than equities do. Roughly 5x to 10x more. Every new coin is high margin volume they have been leaving on the table.
HOOD's last earnings report shows the strain of not only a bear market period but also the regulatory strain. Total revenue from crypto centered revenue was down 47% year over year. The clarity act opens up 29 million investment accounts to clearer regulatory parameters and reduces perceived portfolio risk for many of their users.
So what does that actually mean.
Both stocks are still being priced for legal risk that is about to get legislated away. Earnings stay the same. The risk premium collapses. The valuation goes up.
The market is acting like CLARITY might pass but the magnitude of the structural flows is still miss understood and this is a direct representation of the discounted pricing in these underlying s. House passed it bipartisan. GENIUS is moving with it. There is noreal opposition with leverage.
It feels like in 23' when everyone was saying that no one is going to buy the BTC etf.... we all know what happened now.
You're waiting for permission to buy. Market's waiting for you to break. USD crushes risk assets — crypto included — but you're paralyzed at 49 Fear. That hesitation... it costs more than the dip.
bitcoin:native up ~35% off the February lows.
Six straight weeks of higher closes
First reclaim of the 80k shelf since January
Funding sleepy. ETF inflows hot. Vol bleeding lower
Trend says one thing but the crowd is still asking if it's a bear market... while stonks rip rip rip
probably not nothing.