Jamil Muna

Swing Trader - Hunting Assymetry.
Thunder Typically Happens When it's Raining.
Student of Marios Stamatoudis
#AIWhisperer

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

I am intentionally getting loud about stocks. Gotta be ready before the market kicks into gear.

Most of the momentum universe has been decimated, but some stocks are showing extreme resilience. These are some of the more obvious indications that a stock wants to participate in the next up leg when it eventually arrives.

$SNDK is a clear example of strength. Why?

Here's the bull thesis:
- Sandisk is operating in the data center & storage sub-theme under AI infrastructure, with stocks like $MU and $STX. The Theme is showing resilience, as can be expected of a supply bottlenecked industry with pricing power within a larger technological supercycle.
- Demand expected to exceed supply at least until the end of 2026
- As a spinoff from $WDC, Sandisk used its first few months as a new public issue to prove its ability to exponentially expand margins, with triple digit EPS growth guidance into 2026. Which is like speaking dirty to big fund managers looking for growth.
- It is moving beyond demos into active deals with major hyperscalers, building itself into a critical 'Picks & Shovels' part of the value chain.
- YoY revenue growth decent at 23%. Forward revenue guidance is more explosive, with next quarter expecting a 38% YoY growth.
- Strong disruption narrative building around High Bandwidth Flash, which is expected to replace incumbent technology by providing 8-16x the storage capacity in the same space. Actualization of this step-function jump will take place between H2 2026 and 2027.

Amazing numbers, technological moat, pricing power due to supply bottleneck, excellent execution, expert positioning, and proven validation with major cloud partners. I'm looking for an entry.

One of the biggest lessons I learned from @stamatoudism is to focus on the bigger picture. Technicals help you define a universe and manage a position, research helps you stack edges and define a shortlist.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

1/3 to 1/2 ATR is the goal, anything above that feels like size is too small for me. Sometimes forced sometimes logical stops.. depends on the stock and the SA

For the portfolio as a whole, no. I try to manage open risk so, Dynamic Gains need to have space to contract and rebuild

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Tightening Stops is a hack in trading, but it requires a lot of work.

Tightening stops is earned, not forced. If your selectivity comes first and you've done the homework to choose the best stocks, leading to a very short list of candidates you would even trade, then you can tighten (even somewhat arbitrarily from what I've seen).

You have to trust the stocks in you shortlist and keep trying them, the only way to do that is through study and conviction.

A good setup can fail and stop being a good setup. A 5* stock stays a 5* stock regardless if it failed on it's 'perfect' setup.

For me, Fewer Stocks + Higher Selectivity = Freedom to Tighten

LoD Stops have a lot going for them, but I tend to prefer bigger size in the names I worked hard to choose.

[whocares @whocaresld7i]

@Jamilmuna hi, late question to this post of yours. (i was in the fourth cohort of Marios) when you say tight stop, do you always respect the LOD as your SL. a 3.5% spread between buy and SL price at a 0.25% risk gives me a 7% POS. Mentally, i say to myself that thats hardly worth it.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

We really didn't expect this project to be as huge as it turned out.

Transcribing your intuition and understanding of what makes a super-performing stock into machine language turned out to be a Hydra with many heads. Glad I've got a Greek partner with some Herculean genes..

Some great trades for me, ones the intelligence highlighted, that @stamatoudism didn't mention in his post include $SNDK $MU $WDC $LWLG $GFS

For fairness, its been an easier market this past two months, but we are consistently identifying most of the big movers well ahead of 30+ R trades

[Marios Stamatoudis @stamatoudism]

As I get closer to finalizing AI assisted Momentum Intelligence, I wanted to share what drove this entire effort, close to a year of intense work.

Countless hours every day pushing limits, solving bottlenecks, innovating, and squeezing every bit of insight from my team and myself. Seeing most of what I envisioned come to life...and actually work, feels genuinely good. And it’s just the beginning.

A lot of the best opportunities of the past couple months (ARM, DELL, GFS, INTC, VECO, VSH, PENG, NBIS, AMD, BB, MU, etc and more) have been highlighted by the system. The goal of capturing more outlier trades is being met.

But this wasn't only about the wins.

There is a painful trade off every discretionary trader faces: We need to deploy enormous effort to refine our skills, and we need to stay in constant sync with the markets. We all know that

But staying in sync demands a lot of hours every single day on research, studying, prioritization and execution if you want to compete at a high level.
The moment you put in fewer hours, the ripple effects start showing up in clarity, confidence and overall performance. I've seen it in myself every time I return from a mini vacation.

Study enough great discretionary traders and you see the pattern.
At some point many make big mistakes, not always from lack of skill, but from pride, tiredness, shifting life priorities or more.
They lose the sync.
Then the fire for the game.
Then the morale.
Not because the foundation or the systems don't work but because their former self felt better... and that hurts.

I’m still young, I’ve already surpassed the goals I set when I originally started trading.

BUT I never want to end up living in the shadow of my former self.

At the same time, I’m human. I want a family one day. Life changes, time becomes more precious, and if I want to truly enjoy it, I’ll have less and less of it to give to the markets.

SO the need grew on me : create a way to stay in constant sync, maintain a high level of clarity, and potentially achieve more with progressively fewer hours

This is where the idea of an AI assisted intelligence started making sense. What started as a fun project slowly became a second job for me and my close partner @Jamilmuna and the rest of the team..lol

I feel lucky we’re living through the AI breakthrough era. For the first time, we can build tools that genuinely augment discretionary reasoning in a helpful manner.

I would advise most of you to start automating the observations, checks and processes that you've already proven to yourself work.

For the first time, we can keep pushing for excellence in a discretionary way while also hedging against some of the weaknesses that come with being human and with a continuously successful journey.

That was the whole idea.
Stay in sync. Maintain clarity. Capture more of the opportunities that matter & save more time. Not to replace my discretion, but to help me ''preserve'' it at a high level no matter what.

I'm really happy with how we're progressing. Just wanted to share the story behind it all.

P.S. As promised, over the upcoming months I aim to make a lot of this available as well.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

@stamatoudism Hell of a ride so far!

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

The Monks been real quiet this week #NYknicks

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Semiconductor packaging & testing is one of the most important bottlenecks in AI infrastructure right now.

Most performance gains now come from advanced packaging. You can't build next-gen AI chips without it.

On top of that, ARM just announced it hasn't secured supply beyond its first $1B in AI chip demand.

$AMKR (Amkor Technology) and $FORM (FormFactor) stand to benefit from this.

This isn't a cycle play. It's a structural shift. The picks-and-shovels trade for AI isn't just GPUs and Memory, it's the companies that assemble and test semiconductors as well. That capacity is scarce. And it's only getting more valuable.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Having worked closely with @stamatoudism over the past year, from attending his bootcamp to working on some really groundbreaking projects, I feel like I should stress this post.

If you want to learn from someone, it helps to know how they allocate their time and resources. Flipping through 500 charts is not the key, targeting a narrow list of phenomena is.

This is not a superficial process or a quick scan, it is serious work that requires time, practice, study, and developing strong intuition for what drives big moves in stocks. Things like structural bottlenecks, reflexivity, demand cycles, growth metrics, market participant positioning. You can't get this from a chart.

Technicals help you filter down to a bulk list, and they help you with entry and exit mechanics. That said, most of Marios' time is spent on researching the fundamental and behavioral backdrop of the actual companies in that list --> to get to the real list; the shortlist.

Phenomena > Setups can also be read as Hard Work > Shortcuts.

[Marios Stamatoudis @stamatoudism]

I think this is an important point that many new traders need to understand.....We sometimes easily say :
''You need 10-15 good/outlier trades to have a great year''
.....But how hard is it to actually capture them?

Below are some of my realizations over the past 5 years and what I truly mean when I say :
''You must surround yourself with assets where asymmetry or outlier potential can emerge more easily and naturally.''

For years into trading I had the following mindset: ''Filter your universe of stocks with some simple rules that and then focus on the stocks that look strong and the BEST setups.''

That worked nicely and still works nicely in certain windows per year where opportunities are all over the place and everything you touch turns into gold.
But these are small windows within each year.
So what do you do the rest of the months when only selective assets work and most of the universe isn't moving? Are you still executing on great setups? Because this leads to extreme frequency of trades and possible deterioration of your capital.

The other issue I had with that mindset was that without knowing anything about companies ( since I was looking only at price as a guiding factor) , I lacked that conviction element to hit the button big when it was needed. So naturally I was missing out on some moves just because I had nothing else to back up my conviction other than price. Trust issues.

Another problem I also figured out as I studied more was that amazing opportunities didn't emerge always from perfect ''setups''. They just went straight up from setups I would classify as 3*/5 or 2.5*/5......So I thought:
''is focusing on the best setups limiting my opportunity potential? Maybe...''

The other issue I also had was that out of 5K stocks available there are at least ~300 of them that look quite good based on prior price action moves, at any given point in time, and on certain occasions provide ''nice setups''....
So what, am I going to trade all of them when they show some linearity and a 5* setup?

<<We are always limited by time, by how many assets we can hold in our portfolio, and by our frequency.>>

You have to remember that even if you track 800 different stocks over the span of a year as a result of your selection filters , where the list sits around 300-400 at any given snapshot of time......due to frequency and portfolio allocation constraints you can't execute trades in all of them.

So what happens in reality is the following:

If you execute let's say 60 trades per month (your average frequency) and you track a list of 300 stocks, you can essentially attempt on 20% of that universe in any given month.....Essentially you are covering the potential of 20% of that territory..... And how many stocks out of that 20% territory captured by your execution attempts actually have the chance to be outliers?
If you're executing only on great setups within that list of 300 tickers, then it's kind of random whether an outlier will emerge in that 20% coverage you have.

A lot of people might say ''man.... I had $SNDK, $AXTI, $LWLG, $MU etc. on my universe list , why didn't I trade them?''
For many people the reality is that the universe was too big relative to their frequency to potentially trade them, because other opportunities emerged first and didn't materialize.

<<Your frequency relative to the universe you're tracking needs to have a strong overlap.>>

But here is where overfitting starts to spiral....
Because you can attempt to shrink down your universe (e.x from 400 to 50) by butchering your outlier potential, or you can shrink it WHILE carrying the essence of that outlier chance with you.....This is the whole game essentially.... I'll explain:

What butchering your outlier potential means:

For example, some people in their attempts to shrink down the universe put filters to only trade or surface stocks with let's say amazing fundamentals....That's not wrong, because ''usually'' for long term moves great fundamentals need to emerge....BUT IS it universal on all great moves???? The markets show that huge opportunities emerge even without any fundamentals (e.g. $OKLO, $LWLG, $AXTI recently etc.)
So if you put ''great fundamentals'' as a filter to go from 400 stocks down to 50, then you might be shrinking down the outlier potential as well.....
The filters used by traders are many, and each filter you add if you haven't deeply explored it's ripple effects has the potential to heavily exclude phenomena that the market has proven to reward......which essentially means...shrinking your outlier potential in the process. A hole in the water....

There's a reason only a few great traders exist and a lot of average ones.....Because the great traders , through studying, through experience, through observation of past historical opportunities are able shrink down their universe to align it with their frequency, WHILE simultaneously carrying over a large portion of the outlier potential the original ~400 stock list had.

And that's the HARD part. Because you TRULY succeed when you go from 400 stocks down to e.x 50 without losing many of the potential outliers in the process.
Think about it this way.... if 20 tickers out of those initial 400 were going to make a massive move, that's only 5% of the whole initial universe. Now if you shrink down to 50 and still have 10 of those sitting in your new list, your outlier chance just jumped to 20%. That's the whole game right there.......

......That's how you truly increase your outlier chance and position yourself in places where ASYMMETRY can emerge more easily.

And this is where I've focused my work in recent years. We know that great moves can happen because of themes alone, stories, catalysts, great fundamentals, or combinations of all of them. How can you mix all of those elegantly in order to shrink the universe without overfitting, while still carrying a higher outlier potential?

And this is where the phrase I use becomes evident: ''phenomena > setups.'' If, based on historical observations, you create good combinations of behavioral, fundamental, and technical factors, each with their respective weight, the bigger the chance you carry larger chunks of that outlier potential during the universe shrinking process....The more you carry the better your year will be.

<<You can never predict what's going to happen in the markets....only place yourself in places where great opportunities emerge more easily or randomly.>>

A lot of food for thought, but it's a good exercise for many to understand why trading is EASY and yet so damn HARD at the same time.....

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

@mmonis OSS and VECO

[Riz Iqbal @Wordsofrizdom]

This trader just called the BIGGEST short of the year…

He called the $CAR short 24 hours before it happened.

Because he knew exactly how the move would end.

Every stock follows the same 3-stage cycle…

This was the final stage.

Here’s the system he used to predict it:🧵

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

$CRWV &amp; $NBIS look especially phenomena-y

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

@Clement_Ang17 This is very helpful! I have an 8 hour time difference with the market, thanks for the inspiration!

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Did you blink and miss the bounce? Yeah it happens. So what's the next best move here?

Look at the best performing themes, and the best performing stocks. Together they paint a picture of where you should be focused.

Some examples from a rather long list.. Im looking at GPU as a service $NBIS $HUT, Optics and photonics $AXTI, $CIEN, Semiconductor Test Equipment $FORM, Space $SIDU, Uranium $NXE $CCJ. Im also beginning to see potential new leadership in Quantum, which might bring the group back from the dead.. $INFQ

I was able to catch some of these, but most are still on the list for buys in the coming weeks

Wait for the setups on phenomena and trade the hell out of the leaders.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Hey Clement, I was thinking of doing the same. Mind sharing a little more what you automated? All good if not, no pressure. I'm thinking of getting a lower timeframe, and tight stop loss system going. A simple bot, but when I tried in the past with IBKR execution speed left a lot to be desired. Thanks in advance!

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

👀

[Marios Stamatoudis @stamatoudism]

Despite the market being a bit of a mess, I have to say that certain things continue working well.
The Optical & Networking theme holds up, $AXTI being a good position of mine, re tried $CIEN. $LITE and $AAOI need more time probably. Also bought $LWLG, we'll see if it holds up.

$FSLY was one of the best catalyst gaps recently, I've held that since day one of the gap. The overall theme of "Edge Computing" is amplified and emerging (for now) I also bought $OSS in the same theme, which is amplified by other themes like "Defense Electronics and Mission Systems." $AKAM is another name I'm monitoring.

Re-tried $MU (Memory & Storage theme) today $STX, $SNDK , $WDC acting good as well .

Overall, this has been a trend for a while. Certain pockets show strength, transitions happen quickly but not of ''extreme'' magnitude generally. Theme monitoring is more mandatory than ever...

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Hot take.

Yes, everyone is making their own vibe-coded dashboards. And yes, its getting some pushback from most people for being the new age spreadhsheet. My perspective... simple dashboards are less dangerous than lazily using AI to do your research for you.

Keyword hear is 'lazily'.

Before trusting AI outputs, people should ask themselves if their prompts/workflows are interpreting the correct data in congruence with their foundational systems.

Are you optimizing for truth?
Are you optimizing for consistency?
Are you optimizing to perfectly implement what you've learned from studying the markets?

If the answer is no.. you're better off with a glossy dashboards and some manual work.

If the answer if yes, you're in the intelligence game, not the visualization game.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

I've largely kept my head above water this quarter.. some profitability overall. I'd say I played it well, handily beat the $SPX / $QQQ and grew my account, stayed on top of rotations for the most part, kept my risk in check and my capital safe.

BUT I won't let that get to my head.

I keep hearing about how long it takes to become a consistent trader... 5, 6, 7 years? I don't think its a destination. You don't wake up one day knowing your future is set. The key to this game is longevity, If you think you're done jumping hurdles after a set number of years.. think again. It does get easier, and the stakes can get lower too (if you're not worried about rent money.) But, If you think you're a professional that can't be beat after 5-10 years, you're not taking it seriously enough, there's always another battle to be won.

Much like the law of large numbers, aiming for longevity invites distant possibilities, both personally and in the market's evolution. The "I'm finally there" mindset isn't a good one to have.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Someone on here was saying that best technical patterns give you a 50% chance of success at best..... As if that were a bad thing.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

I optimize for R:R and position size. Win rate be damned.

[Jamil Muna @Jamilmuna]

Selectivity is not about setups. Setups are the market's way of battling it out in a price range to find a directional bias. Selectivity is about probabilities; which stocks have the highest likelihood of doing what I want them to do? This tends to require a more nuanced appreciation of current market dynamics, what's in favor, and where money is flowing.