Jarad

Hunting multibaggers before Wall Street wakes up | Spotting technical alpha & hidden 10x gems

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

$NFLX call read-through: Core growth remains durable, pricing and ads monetization are progressing, while modest engagement growth and rising content expense are the key watchpoints.

1 - “We expect to deliver another strong year with, as we saw – as you've seen in the guide, 13% to 14% top line growth for the full year. That's roughly 12% FX-neutral or about $6 billion of incremental revenue year over year.” (FY26 revenue: +13% to +14% YoY reported; ~+12% FX-neutral) CFO

2 - “We're guiding, as you say, to 12% revenue growth in Q3 reported, 11% FX-neutral. The Q3 revenue drivers are very similar to Q2. It's primarily growth in our subscription revenue from increases in memberships and pricing and higher ads revenue.” (Q3 revenue: +12% YoY reported; +11% FX-neutral) CFO

3 - “We continue to see healthy acquisition and retention trends on the membership side, and our recent price adjustments are going well on the pricing side.” — CFO

4 - “There's still a gap between ad tier ARM and then ARM for our standard without ads tier, but that gap is narrowing. And I think of that gap is essentially near term under-realized revenue growth.” — Co-CEO

5 - “View hours grew 2% in the first half of 2026. That's an incremental 1.5 billion hours relative to the same period last year. It's a slight acceleration compared to 1.5% growth in 2025.” (1H26 viewing hours: +2% YoY; +0.5ppt versus FY25 growth) Co-CEO

6 - “We're forecasting content expense up about 10% this year. It's a little higher than the 8% we averaged over the last five years and below the 14% that we averaged over the past decade.” (FY26 content expense: ~+10% YoY) Co-CEO

7 - “Our first half price changes, these are markets like US, Mexico, Spain, they've gone well. The results are consistent with prior price changes. They're consistent with our expectations. So, we aren't seeing any real changes in that performance.” Co-CEO

8 - “Those 17 minutes, Sean, they were produced twice as fast and at half the cost of previous options.” Co-CEO

9 - “They drive disproportionate sign-ups. And because of that acceleration, they can exhibit slightly higher churn. But the results are exactly consistent with that trend and in line with our expectations in all of our modeling.” Co-CEO

“We don't manage the business on a quarter to quarter basis. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue and profit growth.” CFO

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

$NFLX is attractive here below 70$

We don’t manage the business on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue and profit growth - CFO of Netflix

One of the best capital allocator and compounder

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

Did someone check on the bottleneck & chokepoint dudes?

$SIVE $LPKF

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@Fath3ad2 @realroseceline @amitisinvesting that has nthing to do with tech or semi, he just cant analyse financial statements or read transcripts

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@wallstengine @PPLXfinance consensus eps for Q2 is 0,79 .. for Q3 its 0,84 per tradingview $NFLX

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@MoodyWriter13 if retail are not humble, market will eventually humble them

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@dnuno93 @EndicottInvests Hedge ? Your mama is retarded. He is buying more nevius with the premium , what kind of hedge is that

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

So apparently every $NBIS investor sold the top and now buying cheaper

@EndicottInvests was buying at 259$ before couple of weeks just to sell at 265s - ok bro whatever

$IREN $CRWV $NVDA $NUAI $CIFR $WULF

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@EndicottInvests fair. you owe me nth - we are on x its public, dont take it personally

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

you were buying Nebius shares at around 240 and $256, yet you were still willing to have some of them called away at $265 in exchange for a relatively small premium.

That doesn’t seem consistent with the level of conviction you’ve expressed.

Aren’t you significantly capping your upside, especially when your base case was $1,500 per share by 2030?

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@realroseceline Watch nebius fans panic selling after buying at 200 , 250 and 300 in the last weeks

I am not willing to buy this shitcoo even for 120 tbh

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@realroseceline because investors here are chasing short term gains and hot narratives

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

Can someone enlighten me on why $CRWD trades at 35x 2026E sales while still being unprofitable under US GAAP?

Revenue is expected to grow at a solid 22.5% CAGR into 2028 (based on 2025). Solid, yes. But 35x sales?

Did they cure cancer or invent teleportation?

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

For all the newbies out there just because a stock is down 50% from its all-time high doesn’t automatically make it a great opportunity

A stock can fall 50% or 60% from its all-time high and still be overvalued

The ATH is not a valuation metric ffs

$ASTS $RKLB $SPCX

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

I think Delivery Hero could be a good acquisition for $UBER as it would significantly strengthen Uber’s international delivery business without requiring the company to build market positions from scratch.

Delivery Hero brings established local brands, merchant relationships and operational expertise across several fast growing regions. The combination would expand Uber’s presence to 99 markets and nearly double the number of countries in which it offers both mobility and delivery services.

There is also a credible strategic benefit from connecting Delivery Hero’s customers and merchants with Uber’s wider platform. Uber says customers who use both its mobility and delivery products generate roughly three times the gross bookings and profits of single product users. A larger and denser network could therefore improve customer engagement, create more demand for merchants and increase utilisation for couriers and drivers.

Financially, Uber expects the transaction to increase non-GAAP earnings per share immediately after completion and provide high single digit percentage accretion by the third year.

The deal still carries integration, regulatory and execution risks, particularly given its size and geographic complexity.

Overall, I see it as a potentially sensible acquisition because it combines strategic scale with a reasonably clear path to financial value, provided Uber integrates the businesses carefully and maintains discipline around costs

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@wallstengine Growth at reasonable valuation ❌
Growth at premium valuation ✅

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@jiahanjimliu Thanks for sharing JIM!! X need a wake up call

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

$IREN / $NBIS: Asset Lite Model, Vertical Integration, DSX OS

Horizontal vs Vertical Integration
Last year, NBIS bulls were pushing the vertical integrating narrative to which I said that owning the GPUs doesn't make vertical integration (3) because the vertical integration is handled by Nvidia libraries that sit between the GPU and higher level software, most noticeably CUDA, NCCL.

Now NBIS bulls have change the narrative to horizontal integration where they don't need to own the GPUs and can scale by licensing up their system architecture and software stack (2). All Neoclouds base their system architecture around DSX reference design (1), so it's really the software stack we are talking about here.

The new NBIS narrative of horizontal integration is correct while vertical integration is a narrative that NBIS made up to seem superior. Today's NBIS announcement made it clear that vertical integration has nothing to do with owning the GPUs design by Nvidia and everything to do with CUDA, NCCL.

Asset Lite
Yes, this is not the exact same as colocation. Asset lite is colocation plus switching whose balance sheet the GPU and networking gear are on.

This is a fine business model for NBIS. However, its nothing revolutionary as FireworksAI, TogetherAI, Baseten, Modal have been doing asset lite for years. In fact Fireworks, TogetherAI are AI Platforms for IREN bare metal.

NBIS bulls are masters of narrative and say that FireworksAI and TogetherAI don't have vertical integration when they do this with IREN. Now NBIS is doing this themselves but labeling it as Asset Lite instead of horizontal integration.

Ironically, NBIS and IREN were both on the asset side of this model as they provided raw compute for MSFT Azure AI Platform. NBIS even signed another contract as a compute provider for Meta too. NBIS likes to spin the narrative that they are providing software for all their customers but it's very common to add on Kubernetes on top of bare metal as bare metal+. This is very close to raw compute at the end of the day.

DSX OS
Some NBIS bulls are now trying to narrate that DSX is Nvidia specs on how to build a datacenter and doesn't come with software (4). This could not be further than the truth.

Straight from Nvidia: "As part of the NVIDIA DSX platform, DSX OS delivers composable components for lifecycle management, runtime consistency, health automation, resiliency, multi-tenant operations, and AI platform services" (5).

In fact, Nvidia acquired RunAI, an Israeli based startup, for 700m which specializes in GPU Orchestration (6). Today you can install RunAI for free (7) as long as you have Kubernetes setup. For IREN, Mirantis can easily integrate RunAI. Some NBIS bulls are saying NBIS has the best stack (9) but really RunAI is the standard which most Neoclouds and Hyperscalers base their own orchestration around. RunAI has stats to back up their performance (10) and now that Nvidia engineers have had 2 addition years to work on it, RunAI is the industry standard base code.

IREN Pioneering DSX OS
IREN will be the first to pioneer an fully open source integration of DSX OS via Mirantis (11). This is why Nvidia setup IREN up to acquire Mirantis to begin with.

Previously we have hyperscalers and Neoclouds integrating DSX OS and making it proprietary in order to stick their customers. Now Nvidia is tasking IREN-Mirantis to have the full integration open sourced (11). Yes you head it right! The AI Platform open sourced. Granted the DSX OS doesn't include inference optimizations but you can bet Nvidia is going to have open source inference optimizations for Nemotron. As Chinese open source companies like Deepseek expand from Model company to Cloud (12), you can get they will release open source inference optimizations along with open source models.

Conclusion
The ground is shifting, keep watch of the Neocloud industry as it developer. NBIS is great at framing and narration, but Nvidia leads the industry including AI Cloud Platform and IREN is here to participate.

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@Udi_Z @Agrippa_Inv true

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

I swear reading $NBIS retail fanboys on x makes me just realise that everyone is just gambling and they don’t even understand the economics or risks behind the company

[𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 @Agrippa_Inv]

Smaller infra players can’t even finance construction without a firm multi-year contract from an investment grade tenant.

How are you going to expect them to finance both the data center infra + the GPU expenses?

You think any serious lender would give them a dime simply because they have $NBIS software & access to $NBIS pool of enterprise clients?

This isn’t a serious plan lol…

[Jarad @JaradCapital]

@realroseceline 🫡