I think this is a very important point. Big 7 management are clearly not “retards”, they see the way the puck is going and AI represents an existential threat - imminently - to huge chunks of their businesses (esp Google).
That is obvious and means endless capex to win AI race is not optional - it’s almost like maintenance capex at this point - but given it’s forced there is a huge chance it’s malinvestment/just a massive waste of money.
Obviously, in this scenario all the CEOs will tell you it’s not a woodchipper, it’s actually got amazing ROEs to it attached. Internally I bet you there are SOS emails going back and forth (“we have to spend the money Sergey otherwise we fucked anyway”).
It’s just another technology transition where the incumbents are petrified their current businesses are the horse and buggy. They will obviously spend anything, anything, to try to avoid that fate.
Going to start posting some of our highest-conviction ideas here.
Would be interested to connect with other deep-value or special situation investors.
I'm particularly interested in nano/micro caps in Japan and the UK, but will consider anything globally.
@InvestSpecial This is my highest-conviction position for 2026/27.
Currently trading pretty much at net-cash, which is absurd for such a high quality business.
@everynetnet Yeah that's true. There is also something comforting about using a few different sources to make a decision. I love your focus on NCAV and TBV ( I use both)