Jasmin Mujanović

Political Scientist, PhD. Author of "Hunger and Fury" (2018) and "The Bosniaks: Nationhood After Genocide" (2023), and host of @balkanomnicon.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Critically, @SenatorShaheen raised the point of sanctions relief for Dodik explicitly in her opening remarks, noting that Congress has been asking for 225+ days for clarity or justification from State and has not received it. Evident bipartisan concern. https://t.co/RcKyijFvAF

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Kudos to @RepKeithSelf for ensuring that Sec. Rubio offers a view on the situation in Kosovo and BiH. Rep. Self’s description of the general situation in the Western Balkans are well taken.

Rubio’s comments rejecting the idea of further division or partition in BiH and the region are positive but it is important to recall that Kremlin-backed Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik - whom the U.S. relieved of all sanctions last year - is spending millions in DC right now, advocating for just that aim. Greater U.S. pushback against his dangerous adventurism is therefore needed.

[Admirim @admirim]

Secretary of State Rubio:

NATO expansion hasn't been a prominent topic in recent talks with allies amid the multiple global crises but Kosovo's NATO membership cannot be ruled out in the future.

The last thing we want to see is any sort of partition, division in BiH.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Recall that Serbian nationals have been trained by Russian intel and implicated in ops in France, Moldova, Kosovo, Bosnia, and, of course, in the 2016 coup attempt in Montenegro itself. This is now a clear pattern of Belgrade engaging in clandestine anti-EU/NATO activities.

[Ljubomir Filipović 🇲🇪🇺🇸 @ljubofil]

Montenegro is preparing for the EU–Western Balkans Summit to be held in Tivat on Friday. The Serbian regime allegedly sent a group of 90 people on a charter flight to provoke incidents. Montenegro’s Agency for National Security sent them back to Serbia.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

I have long advocated for robust military support to Ukraine, to accelerate the liberation of its entire territory, including Crimea, and have lambasted the ridiculous waffling of European capitals which claim one day that Ukraine's struggle is one for the soul of the European idea, and the next fret whether this or that weapons system will be perceived as 'escalation' by the thuggish Moscow regime.

That said, advancing a state which is in the midst of the largest land war in Europe since 1945, and another which also has c. 12% of its territory under de facto Russian occupation, towards EU membership talks while Brussels has yet to even grant candidacy status to Kosovo, or to begin negotiations with Bosnia - which applied for candidate status nearly a decade before Ukraine or Moldova - is ridiculous.

Because only two conclusions follow.

Either Ukraine and Moldova are being waved through because Brussels and the capitals are desperate for another round of virtue signaling, knowing full-well that membership is nowhere on the immediate horizon. And/or despite all chatter of imminent enlargement (i.e. Montenegro), the pieces are being put into place to i. scuttle Podgorica's accession but then ii. manage the blowback by still telling the Western Balkans that their European perspective remains open because, look, Ukraine and Moldova are making progress.

Otherwise, we are forced to conclude that Russia's murderous aggression against Ukraine and Moldova has somehow better prepared these countries for EU membership than 23 years of EU primacy in the Western Balkans has. Or just that the entire 'accession process' is political make-believe. https://t.co/QQULPY5wiz

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Michael Flynn’s lobbying on behalf of the Kremlin-backed Bosnian Serb secessionist regime in Banja Luka has shocked even segments of Pres. Trump’s base.

That’s instructive.

Because the militant agenda Dodik has hired Flynn to promote in DC has no true constituency in America. It directly contravenes core US national security interests in Southeast Europe - among which the most fundamental is peace.

There is still time for the Trump administration to rein in the mercenaries who have hijacked US security interests in the region but not much. As I’ve explained earlier today, the plot hatched by Dodik et al in (and against) Bosnia is advancing rapidly, and soon even an about face by the US may not be able to fully restore the status quo.

[Scott McMahan @BiggerTruth]

🧵Mike Flynn @genflynn is officially a foreign agent of the Republic of Srpska, headed by Milorad Dodik, who is Putin's most vocal ally in the Balkans.

I first reported on this about a month ago.

Here is the registration doc from https://t.co/9lEWOQ8evx. According to the document, Flynn is being paid $100K per month.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

I will add that there are obviously several circuit breakers theoretically available to interrupt this sequence - in Washington, in Brussels, and in Sarajevo - but there is presently a lack of political will across the board to act, which only benefits those visibly salivating at the prospects of renewed crisis, i.e. Dodik and Covic.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

It seems readily apparent what the sequence of events in Bosnia will be if/when Antonio Zanardi Lendi is installed as the next, and likely final, High Representative:

• There will be an immediate push for a new state property law, likely with a tight deadline, i.e. ahead of the Bosnian general elections later this year. The U.S. will push for its passage through the state parliament and almost certainly has already secured the support of the secessionist SNSD. That likely means their partners in the Croat separatist HDZ are also already on board. The Sarajevo-based governing and opposition blocs have probably already been threatened with sanctions if they do not fall in line. The Troika will no doubt, SDA and DF may waffle but probably will as well. The details of the law seem less significant than what will follow but the same will nevertheless likely be largely favorable to Dodik and the HDZ.

• On the off chance that the law cannot be adopted in timely fashion, Lendi will use the Bonn Powers to impose the legislation. However it is adopted, Lendi, Dodik, Covic, and the U.S. will claim the 5+2 Agenda has been realized and that the OHR can therefore be closed. That will also likely be accompanied by a push for the ouster of the last international judges from BiH, and the wind down of EUFOR, to fully decouple BiH from any form of international oversight.

• Assuming all of that is accomplished by Q1 of 2027, and the elections produce the most probable outcomes - i.e. systematic electoral fraud resulting in governing majorities for the SNSD and HDZ - Dodik and Covic will concoct a major secessionist/‘third entity’ crisis within six to eighteen months of that date. Indeed, they may block the formation of a state government entirely to expedite said crisis, and to maintain control over key security portfolios which the Troika handed them. How that plays out is anyone’s guess but “not well” seems probable given the complete absence of international mediation mechanisms. The police standoffs we saw in 2025 will likely be repeated at considerably larger scale and higher temperature.

In sum, with a leadership vacuum in Sarajevo, and familiar European geopolitical dwarfishness, I expect major turbulence in BiH and the Western Balkans in 2027.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

BiH’s former, and longest serving, @OHR_BiH Inzko with scorched earth letter to Peace Implementation Council: “Will the international community reward
[a] secessionist project thirty years after investing enormous efforts in peace building in [BiH]?”

Separately, local media report U.S. has threatened to cut off all funds to OHR if its preferred candidate is not selected, one who Inzko appears to be hinting strongly will realize the agenda of the Russian-backed secessionist regime in Banja Luka. https://t.co/SxSp7LQdUa

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

@sentdefender Very retro.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Important debate re: Bosnia in the British Lords today. Note the explicit references to secessionist Dodik travelling to Moscow "to receive instructions" but also the suggestion that UK must ensure the new High Rep in Bosnia is committed to preservation of Dayton Agreement; a hint of the chasm between U.S. and its European allies as to the ouster of Schmidt, and direction of American policy in Bosnia. The implication being that key European capitals not convinced present U.S. course in line with integrity of Dayton.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Lengthy, detailed reporting from @InsiderEng re: Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik’s sharp uptick in contacts with Russia - twice visiting Moscow in May - and the increasingly incomprehensible US decision to lift sanctions vs. him and his regime. https://t.co/hYSAFl65ch

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

As US and EU views re: BiH & the W. Balkans increasingly diverge, the positions of key middle power states like the UK & Canada will be decisive for ensuring both regional stability, & the long-term interests of NATO therein. Especially re: growing Chinese, Russian influence.

[Stephen Doughty HC MP @SDoughtyMP]

I spoke to Bosnia and Herzegovina FM @DinoKonakovic this morning to underline the UK's unwavering support for security & stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

We discussed the importance of the role of High Representative as vital in upholding the Dayton Peace Agreement.

🇬🇧 🇧🇦

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

There are two candidates for BiH's next High Representative. Antonio Zanardi Landi, who is said to be backed by the US, Turkey, Japan, and now also Italy. René Troccaz is purportedly backed by France, Germany, Canada, the UK, and the EU.

I have traditionally taken 'Anglo-American' view of the region and have been underwhelmed by European efforts in BiH, in particular, at the best of times. But given the current course, Troccaz is clearly the preferable candidate and if what is required for a more reality-based posture by the EU in BiH is for the next HR to be from France, which does not have a stellar track record in the region either, then that is the way it will have to be.

To be clear, the entire situation is sub-optimal, largely because pro-BiH actors in Sarajevo have been unable to articulate a coherent set of demands, despite there being a clear opportunity here to leverage their core interests in a moment of transatlantic disagreement.

[Benjamin Haddad @benjaminhaddad]

En route vers le Montenegro et la Bosnie Herzégovine aujourd’hui, en compagnie de mon homologue 🇩🇪 @GuntherKrichba3 . Nous rencontrerons les dirigeants et acteurs de la société civile, et y enverrons un message clair de soutien à la perspective 🇪🇺 de la région.

Les Balkans sont au cœur de l’Europe. Il y a 30 ans la guerre déchirait la région. Nous ne pouvons l’oublier et encore moins laisser des puissances rivales s’ingérer en notre sein pour y attiser l’instabilité. Notre présence continue est un enjeu majeur de sécurité: j’en ai fait une priorité de mon action.

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Despite being the key criteria for the closure of the @OHR_BiH and BiH's accession to NATO since 2008, no 'pro-Bosnian' political party has yet drafted comprehensive legislation to regulate the country's vast public lands and properties. Now, that issue has become central to the ouster of Christian Schmidt, the nomination of a new High Representative, and the deeply contentious Southern Interconnector gas pipeline project.

For @odgovor_ba, I argue genuine Atlanticist and 'European' leaders in Sarajevo must confront the issue head on, and leveraging all of the legal advantages available to them in this dispute, offer concrete solutions -- today. And there are specific policy regimes available which they can easily use as models. https://t.co/bfnatsC7pp

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

The most detailed reporting yet on the bizarre US shell company, with no employees and no know funds, but powerful friends in Washington, which has secured nine-figure contract to build a strategic gas pipeline in Bosnia. @tomburgis reports for @guardian. https://t.co/COXUkWIKRG

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

A spectacular night in Sarajevo. Sold out Asim Ferhatovic Olympic Stadium hosts a friendly between Bosnia & Herzegovina & N. Macedonia ahead of the Bosnian side's arrival in Canada & the US for their World Cup campaign. 30,000+ in the stands. https://t.co/TwnbGdqiFF

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

NOW: On an all new episode of @balkanomnicon, I speak to the incredible @SmajoBeso about his work as a genocide researcher, and his own family's experiences surviving the Bosnian War. We also talk at length about the ongoing persecution of Bosniaks in the western Herzegovina and Stolac areas by the local Croat nationalist authorities.

This episode, and all previous @balkanomnicon episodes, are now streaming on the official @odgovor_ba YouTube page, or wherever fine podcasts are streamed. https://t.co/PvPq7lLxK0

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Folks, I am very excited to share that we've just finished editing the next episode of @balkanomnicon, in which I speak to the amazing @SmajoBeso about his work as a genocide researcher, and his own family's experiences surviving the Bosnian War. Importantly, we also talk at length about the ongoing persecution of Bosniaks in the western Herzegovina and Stolac areas by the local Croat nationalist authorities. I am very proud of this conversation, and I hope you will tune in tomorrow when we launch.

One more thing: working with the terrific media team at @odgovor_ba, we've managed to significantly increase the quality of our audio. You'll hear a much cleaner and crisper sound with this episode, and we will also work to improve the quality of the recordings of the entire back catalog of episodes. So, new listeners will have a more enjoyable experience than ever before. I mean...as enjoyable as it gets listening to this guy.

Thank you for your continued support.

🌐https://t.co/EBu8pNLAtE
🌐https://t.co/51OeHszLiF

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Wow. Bosnian Serb secessionist leader Dodik, speaking in Moscow, says he “shares” Russia’s concerns over the “militarization” of Germany and the “treachery” of the UK and that “they must be stopped”.

So Dodik, relieved of US sanctions, is now openly threatening NATO member states, and from Russia no less.

Does he need to start handcuffing UN officials to light poles like Karadzic did before the EU deploys sanctions, and the US reconsiders its own measures?! Extraordinary.

[Istraga.ba @IstragaB]

Dodik u Moskvi poručio Rusima: Potpuno dijelimo vaše mišljenje o militarizaciji Njemačke i podmuklosti Velike Britanije, one moraju biti zaustavljene

https://t.co/m2pB9RGDxQ

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Some thoughts on (legal) terminology.

The ICTY established genocide had occurred in Srebrenica in its 2004 ruling, which it reaffirmed in several subsequent decisions. But the Higher Regional Court of Düsseldorf convicted Nikola Jorgić on 11 counts of genocide concerning atrocities he committed in Doboj already in 1997. Other German rulings followed re: Zvornik, Kotor Varoš, and Foča. And in 2007, the European Court of Human Rights upheld the legitimacy of the Jorgić ruling, the German courts' application of universal jurisdiction, and also their broader understanding of 'genocide' (vs. the ICTY's, arguably, illogically narrow definition).

My point is those who reject the label of "Bosnian Genocide" or "Genocide in Bosnia" or still more specifically "Genocide against the Bosniaks of Bosnia and Herzegovina" because the ICTY limited its rulings to the events in Srebrenica ignore the likewise legally binding decisions of the German courts and the ECtHR.

Thus even if one wants to argue that the overwhelming academic consensus should not be considered as relevant for the use of the term "Bosnian Genocide" (vs. strictly "Srebrenica Genocide"), it is not accurate to say that 'the ICTY found genocide occurred only in Srebrenica.' Instead, one should say that the ICTY and other European national courts ruled that genocide occurred in Srebrenica and in several other municipalities in Bosnia during 1992-1995, perpetrated by Serb nationalist forces against non-Serb civilian population of the country, with the overwhelming preponderance of that violence and persecution having been directed specifically against the Bosniak community. Facts which then necessarily reaffirm the legitimacy and necessity of the term "Bosnian Genocide" etc.