Jason Duke

Chief Tea Boy at
I'm an East End boy, a dad, a marketer, and a tea drinker

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

Do you speak and read English, Chinese, Arabic or Swahili?
Would you help me with a semi academic project please and rate some pages in your mother tongue?
SEO, Online marketing and general data nerds, may like the outcome of this one
Thank you so much!
https://t.co/DdmGBNgywX

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

BBC Projected National Share for 7 May 2026 just published. Kronaxis KPM-1 was the most accurate model in the entire UK polling field on national vote share. MAE 2.96pp. YouGov 3.20pp.Opinium 3.20pp. Electoral Calculus 5.00pp. We did it for £500 in compute, minutes of runtime.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

If KPM-1 verifies Thursday, synthetic-panel modelling earns its place beside polling and prediction markets. The platform becomes commercially-credible for every public-opinion question.

If it misses, we publish what went wrong. Same prominence.

The hash is the receipt.

—Jason

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

🗳 The first pre-registered prediction set for an English local election is now public.

136 councils. 65,000 synthetic UK voters. SHA-256 hash on GitHub before voting opened. Validated against 103 benchmarks.

Nobody in UK forecasting has done this before.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

KPM-1 is configured for political prediction because it's the highest-stakes falsifiable test.

The same 65k-persona panel answers product, brand, policy, B2B — any UK market.

Validated against 103 benchmarks. Works on everything.

✉ [email protected]

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

The hash is the receipt:

1fd2be14dc6e014809592408fe1e6b6d1a0f99b46f74e079ebdb52ba3dbd9c41

Committed to https://t.co/hxaFzoFUOV before any ballot was cast.

Friday: curl + sha256sum the JSON. Output matches → file hasn't moved since 1 May.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

How: 65k synthetic UK voters from constituency demographics. 200-persona panel per council. Two questions each. Calibrated to 2024 GE, anchor-capped.

1.4pp avg gap on 103 cross-domain benchmarks.

Validation paper: https://t.co/9gEfRcNqbb

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

The other 126 races are too close for the 4-seed ensemble to call. Most pundits manufacture a winner from a 1pp margin. We don't.

That isn't weakness. It's the discipline that lets pre-registration mean something.

Polling papers over fragmentation. KPM-1 maps it.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

The 5 Lab holds applied a documented manual override (LAB_GE_PREV_OVERRIDE), published openly before voting opened.

If those flip Lab-out anyway, the override hypothesis is proven wrong — and we publish that too.

Falsifiable both ways.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

The 10 calls KPM-1 will be measured on:

Lab holds: Bradford 17pp · Harrow 16 · Sandwell 15 · Blackburn w. Darwen 13 · Wolverhampton 13 Con holds: East Surrey 10 · West Sussex 7 · Hart 6 Reform flips: NE Lincs 10 · Thurrock 7

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

Pre-registered before voting? ❌ polls ❌ markets ❌ pundits ✅ KPM-1 All 136 councils? ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ Public SHA-256 hash? ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ 103-benchmark validation? n/a n/a n/a ✅ Per-persona reasoning trace? n/a ❌ ❌ ✅ Public post-mortem? partial ❌ ❌ ✅
We did the it

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

KPM-1's call: historic three-way fragmentation.

Lab 62 pluralities. Reform UK 46 (from 0). LD 15. Con 11 (smallest EN footprint since 1979). Grn 2 (first-ever Green pluralities).

Most fragmented EN local result since the 1980s — captured in advance, hash-verified.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

The hash is the receipt. No retro-fitting.

If KPM-1's first test verifies on 7 May, synthetic-panel modelling earns its place. If it misses, we publish what went wrong.

—Jason

https://t.co/hxaFzoFUOV

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

🗳 PRE-REGISTERED: our council-by-council predictions for the 7 May 2026 local elections.

136 councils. Every party. SHA-256 hash committed to GitHub on 1 May, before any ballot was cast.

📊 https://t.co/HpVH2lgwFA

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

Limits flagged:
• Manual override on Bradford, Sandwell, Harrow, Blackburn, Wolverhampton (all Lab restored — audit at /methodology)
• Reform over-prediction in strong-Leave seats
• LD floor uncertain where 2024 local data is patchy

https://t.co/1UfXVwOZGv

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

Honest framing: only 56 of 136 are confident calls (≥70% bootstrap win-prob). 16 leans. 64 noted three-way toss-ups within 2-3pp.
Hold us on the 72 confident calls. The 64 toss-ups are fragmentation indicators, not firm predictions.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

Reform UK 58
Labour 43
Conservative 22
Lib Dem 11
Green 2
National share: Ref 26%, Con 21%, Lab 22%, LD 15%, Grn 13%.
Most fragmented local-elections result projected since the 1980s.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

5/ Every other forecaster gives you numbers. We give you 12,224 individual reasons.

Full interactive results with reasoning traces for every council: https://t.co/LeTCL7yveO

Pre-registered. Verifiable. Open methodology.

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

We asked 12,224 synthetic voters WHO they'd vote for in the May 2026 local elections. Then we asked WHY.

The numbers: Reform 28.3%, Con 23.4%, Lab 20.1%, LD 18.4%

The story is in the reasoning.

https://t.co/Ib9PPTtaOH

[Jason Duke @JasonD]

4/ What voters actually talk about:
- Council tax: 63%
- Brexit/Reform: 65%
- Tactical voting: 36%
- Housing: 25%
- Cost of living: 23%
- Immigration: 2.4%

Immigration is 2.4%. Council tax is 63%. The gap between media coverage and voter reasoning is enormous.