What is happening in our country with our out-of-control national debt is shameful.
It is the total failure of accountability and leadership.
It is out of control greed, indifference, and incompetence.
Here is what our hopelessly corrupt, greedy and incompetent political class will not tell Kenyans.
And the reason they won't tell you is that no solution exists without:
(1) Real austerity, STARTING WITH THE POLITICAL CLASS.
(2) Government restructuring. Reducing the cost of government.
(3) Prosecutions and asset seizures.
(4) Change in leadership across the board.
Here are the facts.
(1) Our country owes KSH 12.3 trillion today. This debt was KSH 8.6 trillion in 2022 when @WilliamsRuto took office. It is up over 40% in three years.
(2) Since devolution, our country has never managed to have a balanced budget. Look at the second attachment and see the trendline.
Our national debt was KSH 2.3 trillion in 2013. We have had 435% growth in debt since devolution.
During this time, our GDP has grown by about 1/3 of that growth. Meaning, our debt is growing at about three times the growth of our country's ability to service debt.
That is economically suicidal.
And, in the last 5 years, we have borrowed between 40% and 50% of every single shilling we spend.
Between 40% and 50% of every single shilling spent over the last 5 years, has been borrowed.
And it is not to serve Kenyans. It is to continue the corruption merry-go-round, and, our insane level of state largesse.
(3) Our structure of government is NOT SUSTAINABLE. Devolution was well intended, but incompetently executed. This is not even debatable. Look at the third attachment.
We decided to copy and paste a federal system of government without asking important questions.
Such as:
How many politicians do we need?
How much can we really afford to pay politicians, and still serve Kenyans?
Why does Lamu County need 19 MCAs.
Why does Muranga need 48 MCAs.
Why does Nairobi need 124 MCAs.
More than half of our counties MAKE LESS MONEY ON THEIR IN A YEAR, THAN THE AVERAGE PETROL STATION IN NAIROBI.
Let that sink in.
The incomes of at least half of our counties are less than a petrol station brings in in Nairobi County.
People who were involved in this process did not really care about the economics of government.
The result is what you see in the last attachment.
We are a country whose national interest is to serve the needs of the political class.
That's it.
We have a severe over-representation issue in this country. A politician for every 20,000 Kenyans.
On top of that, given that our national interest is the service of a political class that is 3% of the Kenyan population, we pay through the nose.
A Kenyan MP is earning 3,586 percent of what the average Kenyan is making, in a year.
Do you see?
Too many politicians, getting paid too much.
Understand just how bad the math is.
In 2023-2024, our budget was KSH 3.8 trillion.
But we only made about KSH 2.5 trillion. We borrowed KSH 1.5 trillion that year, so that we can afford to support the 3% of people in government.
We spent 50% of the KSH 2.5 trillion on salaries for 1 million people at the national government.
50% of national revenue is gone. To 2% of the population, as a starting point.
We have not paid a cent of national debt service, which was KSH 1.6 trillion.
So, we borrow KSH 1.5 trillion. That KSH 1.5 trillion arrives in the morning, and then goes out the door in the afternoon. Because we need to pay KSH 1.6 trillion, in debt.
We sent KSH 400 billion to the counties. 100% of it borrowed (because we only raised KSH 2.5 trillion in revenue, against KSH 3.8 trillion in budget).
At the counties, same game.
44% of the entire county spending in 2023-2024 went to salaries for 1% of each county's population.
KSH 16.5 billion went to travel - 100% of it wasteful.
KSH 2.5 billion went to cars for the political class.
KSH 7.9 billion went to bursaries.
So - when you look at these numbers, it is not difficult to understand what our national interest is.
Look - I have no beef with ambition and the desire to make as much as you want.
But no country can run like this. We cannot have a system of government which aims to pay politicians 3,586% of what the average citizen is earning and somehow expect that we can serve people.
IT DOES NOT WORK.
We have to choose one - serve politicians, the 3%, or serve everyone.
So far, given greed, incompetence, and indifference, the choice our country has made is clear:
We choose to serve the 3%.
(4) Let's face it. The economics of devolution as currently set up will never work.
It will not work, without significant changes.
Trust me on that.
Let me give you the numbers using 2024-2025.
Out of our 47 counties, ZERO can support themselves fully.
In fact, the average county, which has a demi-god Governor, Deputy Governor, and a local assembly and its own bureaucracy - COULD ONLY RAISE 5.9% of the amount it spent that year.
For every KSH 100 shillings counties spent, KSH 94 have to come from outside the county.
"Outside" means National Government - which is broke as hell.
It's the one that needs to borrow 40% to 50% of every shilling it spends.
It is the one that needed to borrow KSH 1.5 trillion that year, in order to make the budget work.
Ladies and gentlemen, here is the truth:
Many of our counties are counties in name only. They have absolutely no chance in a hundred years of attaining economic viability.
Once we get this through our brains, we can start asking the right questions.
Such as, how do we facilitate political representation without losing 70% of the budget to the "system"?
24 counties cannot raise more than 3% of their budget, 11 years into devolution.
14 counties cannot raise more than 2% of their budget, 11 years into devolution.
And Kenyans have no real mechanism to enforce fiscal discipline in the counties.
And - given the total failure of parliament, we also have no real mechanism to enforce fiscal discipline at the national level.
It is the price we pay for electing clowns.
And that is not even the worst part of this. Our county governments have become the epicenters of wastage and incompetence.
@MarsabitGov has no problem spending millions to send 3 people for days to the UK to "accept" a used car donation.
@KilifiCountyGov has no problem sending people to Dubai for days, wasting so much money, to learn about "poverty alleviation".
@KisumuCountyKE has no problem sending teams of people to loiter and hang out in public parks in the UK - burning millions in the process, just so they can charge Kenyans "per diems".
@NairobiCityGov politicians have no qualms about burning KSH 1.2 billion traversing the globe learning absolutely nothing, while Nairobi chokes from an inescapable stench and garbage all over the city.
(5) If there is one thing that is worse than corruption in our country, it is incompetence of people in government.
Take a look at the last attachment. I undertook a study of the National Government's handling of taxpayer funds in 2022-2023, and 2023-2024.
The results speak for themselves.
I identified:
KSH 688 billion in stalled projects in this country. Borrowed money, for which we are paying interest.
And, that KSH 688 billion is not serving ONE KENYAN TODAY.
KSH 36 billion in wasteful interest charges that leave no doubt about the intentions of the agencies involved - bills are left unpaid for long periods, just so corrupt politicians can steal from Kenyans through interest charges.
KSH 59 billion in illegal contract variations.
KSH 231 billion in projects where there is no value for money.
That's not my judgement. It is the Auditor General's.
KSH 2.5 trillion in revenue that can be collected by tomorrow evening - if we had a competent government that does not spend every waking hour conniving to steal from Kenyans.
So, here is the deal:
There is no way out of this mess without real change.
Painful change.
No way without real political change.
No way without a revolution in our minds and practices - about the role and purpose of government in our country.
No change without sending all of these bums in office home.
We have to decide - what is our national interest?
To continue serving a greedy, incompetent and corrupt political class, or, serving Kenyans.
We cannot do both.
We cannot pay an MP the equivalent of 3,586% of what a Kenyan is making, and expect to have functioning schools.
We cannot expect to lose KSH 222 billion to corruption in connection with SHA, and expect to have functioning hospitals.
And, we cannot continue electing clowns, criminals, and prima donnas and expect competent leadership from government.
IT WILL NEVER WORK.
A three-judge bench on Friday quashed Speaker Moses Wetangula’s decision that declared Kenya Kwanza as the majority party in Parliament.
The court has ruled that Azimio la Umoja is the rightful majority party.
Judges John Chigiti, Lawrence Mugambi, and Jairus Ngaah have found that Wetangula violated the Constitution in making his determination on parliamentary leadership.
The ruling overturns his decision made on October 6, 2022.
The court states that Wetangula wrongly assigned 14 members from various parties to Kenya Kwanza.
This move gave Kenya Kwanza a majority status in the House.
The judges have ruled that he had no legal basis for the reassignments.
Wetangula declared that Kenya Kwanza had 179 MPs against Azimio’s 157.
However, documents from the Registrar of Political Parties show that Azimio comprised 26 political parties while Kenya Kwanza had 15 as of April 21, 2022.
The court has ruled that the Speaker cannot fault the Registrar of Political Parties.
The judges have stated that the Speaker failed to present any post-election coalition agreements to justify his decision.
The judges have criticized Wetangula for violating the Constitution.
They have emphasized that a Speaker must act with impartiality and uphold public trust.
The court has ruled that Wetangula's position as Ford Kenya party leader conflicts with his role as Speaker.
The judges have stated that he ceased to be Ford Kenya’s leader upon his election as Speaker.
The court has declined to suspend its ruling. The state must file a formal application for any stay of the decision.
The case was filed by Ken Njagi, advocate Lempaa Suyinka, and ten others.
Advocate Kibe Mungai represented the petitioners.
This is Javier Milei.
He became president of Argentina and achieved what economists said was impossible.
In a 2-hour interview with @lexfridman, he explains how he slashed 3,000+ regulations in 6 months.
And why Elon & Vivek are taking notes: 🧵