Hedge funds have never owned so much global government debt:
Hedge fund holdings of sovereign debt are up to a record $7 trillion.
The majority of holdings are currently US Treasuries, totaling $4.2 trillion, or ~60% of the total.
Hedge funds' exposure to US public debt has TRIPLED since 2018.
As federal debt surges, regulatory constraints have limited banks from expanding their holdings as fast as hedge funds.
As a consequence, this has raised the risk of rapid-fire sales of government bonds during market crises, when hedge funds need to raise cash quickly, as seen 2008 and 2020.
The financial system has never been more leveraged.
Leverage is a wild drug:
Bitcoin is now below $86,000, erasing -$100 billion in market cap in 24 hours.
Levered long liquidations over the last 4 hours are nearing $400 million.
It’s a wild time to be a crypto trader.
⚠️This is one of the most expensive markets in US history:
The S&P 500 is trading at 23x forward P/E, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst.
Interestingly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 forward P/E is now higher than during the Dot-Com frenzy.
Incredible.
🚨Is Oracle the new Cisco from the Dot-Com burst?
Oracle's last-12-months free cash flow fell to –$13.2 BILLION, the lowest EVER.
It is expected to rise to -$28 BILLION by the end of Fiscal Year 2026, according to Barclays.
Oracle also expects ~$50 billion in CapEx for 2026…
BofA: November payrolls (NFP & private) expected to be +50k, Oct NFP -65k
The u-rate should rise to 4.5% in Nov, in part due to the impact of furloughed employees.
Overall, the labor market is cooling, not cracking
RESEARCH: Insufficient sleep is associated with decreased life expectancy and as a 'behavioral driver for life expectancy, sleep stood out more than diet, more than exercise, more than loneliness — indeed, more than any other factor except smoking', according to study published in SLEEP Advances journal.
🔥Chinese investors are RUSHING into gold funds:
Chinese gold ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net inflows last month, the highest since April.
Their total assets under management hit $29 billion, the highest for any October on record.👇
https://t.co/b4hxNWWQYg