John Pomfret 潘文

Author of "From Warsaw With Love: Polish Spies, the CIA and the Making of an Unlikely Alliance" Member CFR

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

China’s MOD denied that Zhang passed secrets to the U.S., fwiw

[Edward Wong @ewong]

Gift link to the @nytimes story by me and @julianbarnes: https://t.co/AIrAYJrsA2

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Was it a good look to protest in a church?

[Ronan Farrow @RonanFarrow]

Don Lemon and Georgia Fort have been released.

But the procedural history now emerging is unusual. Before the arrests, a federal magistrate judge found no probable cause to arrest them. The government appealed anyway.

Here’s why that matters—and what it signals more broadly.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

@mfullilove @Lingling_Wei But does it pass the sniff test? Remember China can easily excuse anyone who meets with foreigners of sharing secrets. Remember Zhao Ziyang meeting Gorbachev in 1989. It’s a pretext to hide the purge’s real intent.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

It also completely ignores the very pro-Beijing tilt of the current political situation in Taiwan. The prospect of a KMT victory in 2028 is relatively high. So they might be able to win Taiwan without fighting.

[Dennis Wilder偉德寧 @dennisw5]

I find this a very weak argument for an invasion this year. The PLA leadership is in disarray and Xi Jinping getting what he wants from Trump on so many fronts. At the same time, INDOPAC is building very new capabilities with Japan/Philippines/Australia etc. The new KMT leadership is very friendly. Why upset a very positive geopolitical position by destroying Taiwan?

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

她好像没有移民到美国。

[Snibby @ItsSnibby]

@JEPomfret 有趣的是，她似乎没有留下自传，也没公开承认过自己说谎。美国学者研究普遍认为她被强奸，但华人圈对这点没有统一看法，评价更复杂。@JEPomfret follow back appreciated fr

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

没错

[邓聿文 @dyw1968316]

去年差不多一年江湖都在说这位将军发动了中南海政变，台上的那位有职无权，实权掌握在他手上；昨天江湖则在说这位将军已经被抓，理由只是一场在中央党校召开的省部级领导开班会上没有见到他。故事不同，主角一样，是现实荒诞，还是讲故事的人荒诞，抑或二者都荒诞？

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

她承认她说谎吗？ 有没有留下自传？好像没有。但是很有意思的事，美国学者对她的研究一直认为她就是被强奸了。华人圈子倒没有那么肯定。

[悉尼閑人 @ChinaTruth]

千古罪人！沈崇
她会说流利地道的英语；颇有几分姿色；她是北大女生，地下党员；她主动勾引北平美军，事后诬陷美军强奸她；引发轰动中国的学生运动；蔣介石在社会舆论压力下，逼迫美军撤出中国；直接导致国军内战失利，中国亡于中共之手；她八十年代移民美国，信奉基督教，终身忏悔。她叫沈崇。

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Really interesting

[afra wang @afrazhaowang]

hello from shanghai.

I’ve been deep in the tech scene across hangzhou, liangzhu, and shanghai, meeting a few dozens of devs who are working on ai. a big revelation is…so far, probably due to some confirmation bias, not a single one is using Chinese coding tools. they’re all on Claude Code/Antigravity/Codex/Cursor.

in other words: despite some strong local and free options, Chinese coders just don’t seem to be using them.

[afra wang @afrazhaowang]

hello from shanghai.

I’ve been deep in the tech scene across hangzhou, liangzhu, and shanghai, meeting a few dozens of devs who are working on ai. a big revelation is…so far, probably due to some confirmation bias, not a single one is using Chinese coding tools. they’re all on Claude Code/Antigravity/Codex/Cursor.

in other words: despite some strong local and free options, Chinese coders just don’t seem to be using them.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Yunnan! https://t.co/xU05n3IOBb

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

People often have a conception that the news media is 100% manipulated by the powers that be. Fact is the “timing” of a piece is often dependent on the reporting—when dogged scribes get confirmation, when their editors feel that the story is ready.

[Liqian Ren @liqian_ren]

It happened last month so the main question is why the news is coming out now.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

While Japanese concern over the US commitment to the alliance is natural (heck, it dates all the way back to Nixon, and includes the Clinton administration as well), Trump did have a call with Takaichi Tuesday during which Trump briefed her on US-China relations.

[Ryan Hass @ryanl_hass]

@JEPomfret I'm sorry, I'm not sure I understand your point, John. Is there something in this readout that leads you to conclude that this analysis is OBE? https://t.co/Me1MN9DwXJ

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

@ryanl_hass Hmmm… given the Tuesday call …

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Trump dialed Xi …

[Desmond Shum @DesmondShum]

The Takaichi Effect: Why Xi Dialed Trump

@Lingling_Wei notes that Xi took the unusual step of initiating a call with Trump — something he refused to do throughout the recent trade war.

The timing is no coincidence. The call comes just as Beijing enters what looks to be the opening phase of a long confrontation with Japan under Takaichi.

This maneuver from Xi brings to mind an old Chinese saying: ��物降一物 — no matter how powerful a man appears, there is always someone who can keep him in check. In plain English: every man has his master.

As someone who has navigated the Chinese bureaucracy, I knows this play instinctively. The real contest isn’t the official seated across from you. The real contest is identifying who actually holds the remote control to his decisions.

Sometimes it’s his political patron.
Sometimes it’s his wife.
Sometimes it’s his kid.
And sometimes, it’s the beloved mistress.

Once you find the true master, the rest is targeted persuasion.

Seen through that lens, Xi looks at Japan and decides the real boss isn’t in Tokyo — it’s in Washington. So as he braces for a long, chilly stretch of strategic hostility with Japan, he reaches for the same bureaucratic playbook he learned inside the system. Old habits die hard; political instincts die even harder.

After all, every man is shaped by the system that raised him — and in China’s system, the first rule is simple: you’re not really talking to the right person until you find the person who owns his decisions.

That’s why Xi didn’t call Trump during the trade war.
He’s calling now — because Japan just picked a leader he knows he finds hard to deal with.

How Trump responds will be consequential. It will be a clear signal to every leader watching and wondering whether standing up to China still has backing at Washington.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Wasn’t that with CATL technology?

[Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech]

Tesla is working to build LFP batteries for energy-storage products in the U.S. In October, the company said it expected its facility in Nevada making such battery products to start running in the first quarter of 2026.

[Mirek Szczerba @mirek_szczerba]

Poniższe zdjęcia na zawsze przejdą do wspólnych historii polskiego i amerykańskiego wywiadu.
Może kiedyś w jakiejś wyodrebnionej części ośrodka w Starych Kiejkutach powstanie Muzeum Historii Polskiego Wywiadu i Kontrwywiadu?
@JEPomfret @AWgovPL @CIA @JacekDobrzynski
#HistoriiWywiadu #LudzieWywiadu #UOP #CIA #JohnPalevich

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Many thanks!

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

.@JEPomfret book! It’s the green one on the top shelf. Best history of US-China relations that I’ve read.

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

What happened to the 50 large? https://t.co/R7gEdPMV6O

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

For the crime of lunching with a Japanese

[Ian Johnson @iandenisjohnson]

A sad but well-deserved prize from @CPJAsia for the imprisoned Chinese journalist #DongYuyu
https://t.co/IvfDGCqJsq

[John Pomfret 潘文 @JEPomfret]

Secretary Pete, You might want to ask US ops people how many times Polish operatives put their lives on the line for your “homeland”.

[Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom]

“A quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing.”