Javier Rabinovich

President & CEO, Privé Group. Land banking, development, and hospitality in South Florida since 1999. Founder, Privetel & MOXIE. Chairman, @CityofSIB PAAC.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Twenty-five years of building in South Florida left me with five convictions. The market hasn't priced any of them yet. Writing them down here, one per post.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

I do not underwrite where rates go next. I underwrite whether the deal worked at the old rate for the right reasons, or only because money was cheap.

The rate sets the size of the loan. It never sets the quality of the deal.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Every great branded building carries two signatures: the brand's and the developer's.

The brand sets the standard. The developer has to deliver it on every floor, every year.

The second signature is the one a buyer should read first.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Advice for anyone buying branded in Miami: look past the logo to the operator.

Ask who runs the building, what the brand's standards require, and who enforces them in year ten. That is what the premium actually buys.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

A brand is a promise made in the sales center and kept in the lobby for the next thirty years.

We only put our name next to one we intend to keep.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

A brand does not make a building better. It makes the exit faster, and that is the only part of it we are willing to pay for.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Putting a brand on a building takes one signature. Keeping that promise takes thirty years.

The name sells the launch. The developer behind it decides whether the owners still feel it was worth it a decade later. That second part is the job we sign up for.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Three. Same rule, opposite outcomes. In the third quarter of 2026 we passed on a site whose basis only worked with a rezoning we do not control, and committed to one that works as of right, where anything the city adds is upside rather than the plan.

A rule is only a rule if it cuts both ways.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Five. Integrated operators outlast fee developers across a full cycle. When the pro forma and the people accountable for it are the same document, you are wrong earlier, and in this business earlier is most of the value.

These five decide what Privé Group builds, buys and passes on. When the data disagrees, the conviction changes, not the data.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Twenty-five years of building in South Florida left me with five convictions. The market hasn't priced any of them yet. Writing them down here, one per post.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Four. A brand is a capital strategy only when it buys exit velocity. When it does, the premium is a liquidity premium and it is worth paying. When it does not, it is a more expensive HOA bill. Underwriting the difference is the whole job.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Palm Beach is the county everyone calls tight. In August, one in four listings there cut their price. In Miami-Dade, the county everyone calls soft, one in six.

Palm Beach also clears faster: 80 days on market against 88. Faster and more concessions at the same time is what real demand meeting stubborn asks looks like. A year ago, the price-cut share was 28 percent. Now 25. The asks are giving way, slowly, from the top.
That is the market the old oceanfront buildings are selling into: buyers with real demand, sellers who will concede, and no land left in between.

Privé Liquidity Index, August 2026 against August 2025. https://t.co/arm2JFhmMc via FRED.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

We passed on a site this quarter, and the math is the whole point.

Roughly 9.5 acres. Zoning allows about 199 units at maximum permitted density. The asking price on the land is 31 million.
That is about 156,000 per door on a land basis. Dirt alone. Before horizontal work, before vertical cost, before carry, before a single unit sells.
At that basis, it only clears with a density the site does not have, which is where it stops being a price problem and becomes a context problem. We do not underwrite a basis that only works if a rezoning goes our way.

So we passed, and we said exactly that to the broker.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

The Fed raised the target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first increase since July 2023. Most of the coverage is about mortgage rates.

The number I would look at instead: South Florida went into this hike with less inventory than it carried in August 2025, not more. Miami-Dade active listings were 16,507 in August 2026 against 18,843 in August 2025, and Palm Beach 10,217 against 12,622, per https://t.co/arm2JFhmMc data on FRED; Broward came in at 13,679, down 17.4% year over year, in the Miami Realtors release published on September 16. Days on market moved the same way, Miami-Dade 88 from 93 and Palm Beach 80 from 88.

The 2022 cycle hit a market that was rebuilding supply; this one hits a market that has been drawing supply down for twelve months, which moves the pressure off resale pricing and onto the carry for anyone holding floating rate construction debt on a building that is not finished.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Miami-Dade, August 2026 against August 2025.

Median days on market: 88, from 93.
Active listings: 16,507, from 18,843.
Share of listings carrying a price cut: 16.8 percent, from 19.4 percent.

Three indicators, one direction. Inventory is clearing faster than a year ago, and sellers are cutting price less often to make that happen.

That is a market normalizing, not seizing.

Source: https://t.co/arm2JFhmMc inventory core metrics via FRED, county 12086.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

Miami's branded-residence premium is running roughly 51% right now (~$2,650 vs ~$1,750/sqft). Everyone quotes that number.

Fewer people quote this one: branded units resell in 90 to 120 days vs 150 to 200 for unbranded comps.

That's the real trade. You're not paying for the logo. You're pre-paying for a faster exit.

Only holds with real brand equity, though. HOA carry on branded runs roughly 2 to 3x unbranded. And roughly 1 in 5 branded resales in Miami still close below their pre-construction price.

Priced right, brand is a capital strategy. Priced wrong, it's just a pricier HOA bill.

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

A new 2 million sq ft mixed-use development is coming to Miami!
Stay tuned for more details!

https://t.co/dSSa6nnT0m

[Javier Rabinovich @JERABINOVICH]

For more than two years we have been working together with an incredible team of top professionals in the industry, building the first global premium brand in the segment of electric personal vehicles. Soon it will be the launch of the first vehicle, I in…https://t.co/usXRreZK5K