James Foster

Markets • Economics | #ausbiz

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Week that was #ausbiz
https://t.co/piUzVRKl4m

[Shane Oliver @ShaneOliverAMP]

Eurozone shares -0.6% (-0.1% wk)
US shares -2.6% (-2.6% wk)..from overbought as strong jobs boost Fed hike this yr(money mkt now 100%)
US 10 yr yld +6bp to 4.53%
Oil -2.7% to $90.5
Gold -3.3% to $4328.4
Iron ore flat at $101.6
Bitcoin $61.6k
ASX futures -1.4%
$A 0.704 w $US +0.7%

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

3-mth ave for payrolls growth was 188k, highest since Mar 2024.

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

US #NFPs up 172k in May vs 88k exp. Revisions add back 93k to nonfarm payrolls in Mar-Apr.

- Unemployment steady at 4.3%, underemployment falls to 8.1% from 8.2%
- Participation unchanged at 61.8%
- Ave hourly earnings 3.4%yr, down from 3.6%

[Shane Oliver @ShaneOliverAMP]

The share of multiple job holders in the Australian economy is down from its 2023-24 high, but remains elevated. Cost of living pressures point up again…but the labour mkt may not be as strong this time around.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy chart)

[Alex Joiner 🇦🇺 @IFM_Economist]

The Q1 Labour account data show a solid increase in private sector jobs (that are not-aligned to government sectors) demonstrating that the economy was solid in the first quarter. However, the RBA have had to react to this and still are expected to have to do more.

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Moderate gains o/n, US: S&P500 +0.41%, Nasdaq -0.09%. Europe/UK: Stoxx +0.82%, FTSE +0.27%. SPI futures +0.55%. $AUDUSD 0.7135. US 2yr yld -4bps to 4.04%, 10yr -2bps to 4.47%.

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Australia's trade balance returns to surplus in April #ausbiz
https://t.co/oF4XpfOoqD

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

🇦🇺 March Quarter GDP: Net exports weigh capex surge #ausbiz
https://t.co/2qjcwJkzbZ

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

🇦🇺 Trade account back in surplus in April at $1.8bn, after a $1bn deficit in March.

- Exports rise 7.2% on gains in iron ore, coal and LNG
- Imports up 0.8%, fuel surges (41%) but capital goods pull back (-16%)

#ausbiz

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

.@PeteWargent Daily | GDP per capita slumps #ausbiz
https://t.co/fQ7ZqYYugt

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Weak lead for Thursday's session: US: S&P500 -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.89%. Europe/UK: Stoxx -0.89%, FTSE -0.4%. SPI futures -0.85%. $AUDUSD 0.7128. US 2yr yld +4bps to 4.08%, 10yr +5bps to 4.49%.

[Shane Oliver @ShaneOliverAMP]

Aust growth in real household disposable income is cooling again with the rise in inflation, rising mortgage rates and rising income tax payments as a share of income.

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Australian GDP growth 0.3% in Q1 #ausbiz
https://t.co/BgSO4ECCNu

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Business investment is surging, backed by tech capex. Machinery and equipment up 14.7% in the latest quarter alone and 22.7% over the past year

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

🇦🇺 March qtr GDP growth 0.3% (0.4% exp), down from 0.9%. Annual growth steady at 2.5%.

- Strongest qtr for business investment (5.7%) in 14yrs, driven by data centres
- Household consumption 0.5%, saving rate falls (6.2%)
- Domestic demand up 3.5%Y/Y, fastest in 3yrs

#ausbiz

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

🇦🇺 Q1 GDP out today. Business investment surging but consumer slowing. #ausbiz
https://t.co/c6Ep5xJvO5

[James Foster @JFosterFM]

Light gains in the US: S&P500 +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.03%. Europe/UK: Stoxx +1.21%, FTSE +033%. SPI futures +0.43%. $AUDUSD 0.7180. US 2yr yld +1bp to 4.04%, 10yr -1bp to 4.44%.

[EU_Eurostat @EU_Eurostat]

Euro area #inflation expected to be at 3.2% in May 2026, up from 3.0% in April 2026. Components: energy +10.9%, services +3.5%, food, alcohol & tobacco +2.0%, other goods +0.9% - flash estimate https://t.co/4yrurUvo6n

[Shane Oliver @ShaneOliverAMP]

FWC: min/award wages +4.75% with lowest jobs to rise 6%. This is up from 3.5% last yr & > exp. It covers ~21% of workers but given the influencing impact will see wage grth rise to ~3.7%. Great to see real wages up but w low productivity will add to costs & inflation expectations