The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has improved by $4, which is similar to the past few quarters.
With valuations taking a back seat to earnings, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 hasn’t moved much in recent months. This has allowed equities to grow into their multiples.
Valuations are high but justified by fundamentals. At a 3.9% implied equity risk premium (iERP), the market is certainly not cheap, but once we normalize for tight credit spreads and growing margins, the valuation picture seems justified.
Finally, Bitcoin fell to $60k last week, which is in the support zone that I suggested a few months ago when I wrote that another 4-year cycle bull market had likely ended.
A decline to “only” $60k would be relatively shallow for a Bitcoin winter, but as the commodity currency matures, its ups and downs should become less dramatic. It’s anyone’s guess whether $60k is the low, but my guess is that it is, and that after a few months of backing and filling the next cyclical bull market will get underway. Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles, my sense is that any future waves could eventually take us to new highs.
S&P 500 had one of best November performances in 100 years!
Lots happened this week. Let’s recap:
- S&P 500 had one of best November performances in 100 years, up +8.9%
- Elon Musk claims advertisers are trying to ‘blackmail’ him, says “Go f*ck yourself”
- Legendary investor Charlie Munger dies at 99. RIP to an investing GOAT 🙏
- U.S Q3 GDP grew +5.2%, more than prior estimate (+4.9%) and the fastest in 2 years
- Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank -1.1% in Q3
- Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries (first new model in 4 yrs) starting at $60,990
- U.S ISM manufacturing index shrank for a 13th straight month in Nov. (worst stretch in 2 decades)
- SEC Spot Bitcoin ETF potential approval window is between January 5th - 10th 2024
- Cyber Week hits record sales (5 days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) of +$38 billion (+7.8% YoY)
- Cathie Wood $ARKK had best month ever since its founding up +30% in November
- CZ resigns as Chairman of Binance
- Billionaire Ken Griffin has said that Miami could overtake New York as a financial hub
- Ability of US households to cover an unexpected $2,000 expense is at the lowest level in a decade
- Apple is trying to exit its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs
- Bill Ackman bets FED will cut interest rates as soon as Q1 2024
- MicroStrategy purchases an additional 16,130 Bitcoin ($593MM)
- Risk of a 'hard landing'--where central banks' rate increases cause a steep downturn or recession--has crept up to 23% from 13% back in Sept
- Salesforce beats earnings $2.11 vs $2.06 (+51% YoY)
- Millennial credit card delinquency now exceeds pre-pandemic levels
- Several OPEC+ countries agreed to voluntarily cut oil production by 2.2MM barrels per day in Q12024
- Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger dead at 100
- Jamie Dimon says the U.S is addicted to debt and it’s created a dangerous “sugar high” in the economy
- Canadian Banks report BIG loan loss provisions increases YoY: Scotiabank +137%, RBC +89% and TD +42%
- Shein (fast fashion retailer) filed for an IPO seeking a valuation of +$90 billion (Reddit & Skims talking about IPO)
- Average monthly new-mortgage payment is now +52% higher than the average apartment rent, per CBRE. That’s worse than the lead-up to the 2008 housing market crash, when the premium peaked at 33%
- Sam Altman officially OpenAI CEO again and Microsoft gets “non-voting observer” seat on the board
Have a great weekend everyone!