Jim

[Jim @JimPilhar]

The extension, on the record. Polls closed at 17:00. At 17:01 Justice Zanin, Lula's defence lawyer until Lula named him to the Supreme Court in 2023, ordered two more hours on Lula's campaign's petition. Prosecutors objected. Closed machines can't reopen. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Iranian drones struck an Iranian Kurdish base inside Iraq. Polarity's military section describes exactly this pattern: Turkey operates in the north, Iran strikes Kurdish groups across the border, and Baghdad can do little but protest. https://t.co/6hL2dg5GSm

[Jim @JimPilhar]

The closest war on Polemos. "Russia invades Ukraine", 1,000 times: No clear favourite: Ukraine 47%, Russia 44%. https://t.co/Qi34zXxLHF

[Jim @JimPilhar]

@TheMichaelEvery Implying

[Jim @JimPilhar]

@ChristianHeiens https://t.co/aZXfI8uH0c

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Markets had bet on Flávio. After round 1, Brazil's stocks had their best day in years: Ibovespa +7.7%, EWZ +12.5%, the real +4.5%. Tonight real futures reopened as Lula's win came in and fell 10%, more than double the round-1 gain. Stocks open Monday. #Brazil #EWZ

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Markets had bet on Flávio. After round 1, Brazil's stocks had their best day in years: Ibovespa +7.7%, EWZ +12.5%, the real +4.5%. Tonight real futures reopened as Lula's win came in and fell 10%, more than double the round-1 gain. Stocks open Monday. #Brazil #EWZ

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Brazil elects its president today: Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula, after a first round Flávio edged 47.0% to 45.2%. Brazilians abroad vote first, and 10 Asia-Pacific countries are fully counted. Japan: 80% Flávio, just under his round-1 share. Updates as results land. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

90% counted: Lula 51.6%, Flávio 48.4%, a 3.5 million-vote lead. To catch up, Flávio would need about 64% of the roughly 13 million votes left. Where most of them are, Rio and São Paulo, he is winning 54%. Not called yet, but the math is closing. #BrazilElection #Brazil

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Final. Abroad, 100% counted: Lula 53.9%, Flávio 46.1%; Lula won 62 countries, Flávio 39. Flávio held the US (63%) and Japan (80%) but lost 2-3 points in both, the same drop as at home. Brazil: Lula 51.8%, a fourth term. Country reviews: https://t.co/duxwZumXW8 #Brazil

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Brazilians in the US: Flávio won 7 of the 9 cities counted and lost about 3 points in every one. Orlando 84 to 81, Miami 80 to 77, Boston 74 to 72. New York flipped to Lula, 51 to 48. His US vote moved exactly as Brazil did. LA and SF still counting. #BrazilElection #Brazil

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Where did the 9.3M third-party votes go? Not where the endorsements pointed. Cury, Caiado and Zema backed Flávio; Renan Santos backed no one. Flávio gained 3.6M votes, Lula 10.2M. Polls had Cury's voters 48-36 for Lula. The runoff turned on turnout and defections. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

What the count says. Abstention fell to 19.2%, the lowest in a runoff since 1989, yet fell most in São Paulo and Bahia alike and rose across the North. Lula gained in all 27 states. Abroad, on normal hours, Flávio lost the same 2-3 pts: Japan -2.4, US cities -3.1. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

The extension, on the record. Polls closed at 17:00. At 17:01 Justice Zanin, Lula's defence lawyer until Lula named him to the Supreme Court in 2023, ordered two more hours on Lula's campaign's petition. Prosecutors objected. Closed machines can't reopen. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Lula wins. The TSE confirmed his re-election at 99.75% counted: Lula 51.8%, Flávio 48.2%, 64.1 million votes to 59.7 million. Flávio won round 1 by 1.9 points; Lula gained on it in all 27 states. He is the first Brazilian president elected four times. #BrazilElection #Brazil

[Jim @JimPilhar]

75% counted, Lula leads by 2.0 million votes, 51.1% to 48.9%. The swing is national: his two-way share is up on round 1 in all 27 states, most in Rio (+4.0). What's left leans Flávio: São Paulo and Rio, his home state, hold the most uncounted voters. #BrazilElection #Brazil

[Jim @JimPilhar]

@LaxBionicLax What does an economy use?

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Every country runs on five things: land, people, money, military might, and the neighbors it never got to choose.

Polarity grades each one, country by country, with a view on where it's heading.

Try it for 7 days for $4.99.

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Brazil's polls now close at 6pm ET. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting two hours nationwide over bus shortages, on a petition from Lula's campaign; electoral prosecutors objected. Flávio's side sought extra time in 17 rain-hit towns. #BrazilElection

[Jim @JimPilhar]

Next: the US, the largest bloc of Brazilian voters abroad, votes until 5pm local. In round 1 Flávio took 66% of the two-way vote there: Orlando 84%, Miami 80%, Boston 74%. Lula won San Francisco, Chicago and Washington. Runoff by city as it lands. #BrazilElection #Brazil