Haody

Penn Master | MBA Student | Builder | S&P 500 Company Consumer

[Haody @JimQin12]

How do I get X money?

[Haody @JimQin12]

@JensenHuang @nvidia Welcome to X, Jensen!

[Haody @JimQin12]

@MrBeast @HarleyPlays Congrats Jimmy! Happy wife happy life

[Haody @JimQin12]

Football won today. 🇪🇸

[Haody @JimQin12]

📅 Week in Review (June 22–26): The AI Trade Gets Stress-Tested

A near-perfect inversion of last week. The euphoria (peace + SpaceX, Dow at records) gave way to a slow, five-day bleed in tech while the rest of the market quietly held.
The scoreboard: Nasdaq -4.6% on the week (5 straight down days, longest since February), S&P -2%, but the Dow +0.6% — still printing intraday records midweek. Small caps were the quiet winner: Russell 2000 closed near 3,000, up ~21% on the year vs the S&P’s ~10%.

The throughline — money rotated, it didn’t flee. Every session told the same story: sell expensive megacap tech, buy industrials, healthcare, financials, small caps. Breadth held up even as headline tech indices fell. Goldman’s desk called it “buy the dip mode.”

Four pressure points:
• The Fed hangover. Last week’s Warsh pivot (cut killed, hike now base case) set a higher-for-longer backdrop that punished long-duration tech all week.
• Sticky PCE (Thu). The Fed’s preferred gauge showed inflation still rising in May — confirming the hawkish stance, no relief for rate-sensitive names.
• The memory paradox. Micron blew out (EPS $25 vs $21 est, revenue 4x’d, +17%) — the AI trade is intact. But the same surging memory prices forced Apple (-6%) and Microsoft (-3%) to hike hardware prices. Great for chipmakers, a margin headache downstream.
• AI-spending jitters. A report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 — partly citing SpaceX’s shaky debut — revived doubts about whether AI infrastructure spending is sustainable.

SpaceX, the recurring character: after peaking near $225 (+67% post-IPO), it slid back to ~$151, still above its $135 IPO price but clearly consolidating. Friday brought its Russell 1000 inclusion (forced index buying), with MSCI (6/29) and the big QQQ entry (~July 6) still ahead. Valuation flag: ~107x sales vs Nvidia’s ~21x.

Into next week: a strong AI earnings backdrop (Micron proved it) running headfirst into a hawkish Fed, sticky inflation, and questions about AI capex pace. Rotation-not-flight is healthy if it holds; the risk is the tech bleed broadening. Jobs data next week is the next real test.

Net: a textbook rotation week. The AI trade got stress-tested and Micron passed — but the market still de-risked tech into a hawkish Fed. Nothing broke; a lot got repriced. NFA.

[Haody @JimQin12]

The split tape got weirder (6/25):

📊 Dow +0.14% to a fresh record (51,921). S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.46% — its 4th straight down day, first time since February.

The irony of the day: Micron delivered a blowout — EPS $25 vs $21 expected, revenue 4x’d, guided ~$50B next quarter, stock +17%. The AI-memory trade is clearly NOT broken.

So why’d the Nasdaq still fall? Apple -6%. It RAISED MacBook/iPad prices because memory costs are surging — the exact thing that’s minting money for Micron is now a margin problem for hardware. Microsoft -3% on Xbox hikes too. One company’s tailwind is another’s cost shock.

Underneath it: PCE came in sticky — inflation still rising in May. That keeps Warsh’s hawkish Fed firmly in the picture. Good earnings can’t outrun a hot inflation read — exactly the risk flagged going in.

Rotation, still alive: Dow record on CAT, UNH, healthcare. Russell knocking on 3,000. Money’s not leaving — it’s hiding from expensive tech.

The week’s lesson: the AI trade is intact, but valuations + a hawkish Fed = no free passes. NFA

[Haody @JimQin12]

Micron delivered (6/24):

🚀 MU beat AND raised — stock up ~13%+ after hours after closing slightly red. The memory/AI trade gets a vote of confidence right after this week’s chip rout. Indexes stemmed the bleeding, oil eased, sentiment steadied.

This matters beyond MU: it’s a direct rebuttal to the “AI capex is too high” fear that’s been pressuring the whole complex.

But — caution into tomorrow. Two reasons to watch for sell pressure:
⚠️ MU went in priced for perfection: record high, ~17% implied move. When a name runs that hard into a beat, the “buy the rumor, sell the news” crowd often fades the pop. A gap-up that fades can bleed for days.
⚠️ A great print doesn’t change the macro: the Fed’s still hawkish, PCE lands Thursday, and that’s the real test. Good earnings can’t outrun a hot inflation number.

Trade the reaction, not the headline. The beat is real; whether the pop holds is the question. NFA.

[Haody @JimQin12]

Week Ahead (June 22–26): PCE + the SpaceX buying machine ⚙️

Quiet open, explosive finish.

📊 PCE — Thursday. The big one. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, landing right after Warsh killed the rate cut. Hot core PCE = confirms the hawkish pivot, pressures tech. Cool = doves (and the bond market) get to fade the hike. This print is the verdict on Wednesday’s Fed.

⚙️ SpaceX index inclusion goes live. The forced-buying mechanic kicks in: Russell 1000 adds SPCX after Friday’s close (6/26), MSCI 6/29, then the big one — potential QQQ fast-entry ~July 1 (~$22–27B in forced buying, ~4% float). Catch: funds must sell AAPL/MSFT/NVDA to fund it. Watch the megacap cross-currents Friday.

🛢️ Oil = still the master variable. Ceasefire holding + crude sub-$80 caps the inflation scare. Any crack and PCE isn’t the only worry.

SPCX +40% from its $135 IPO (~$2.5T). The skeptics aren’t gone — S&P 500 inclusion’s off till 2027, low target’s $63.

Three things, in order: PCE Thursday → Russell rebalance Friday → oil underneath it all. NFA.

[Haody @JimQin12]

Week Ahead (June 22–26): PCE + the SpaceX buying machine ���️

Quiet open, explosive finish.

📊 PCE — Thursday. The big one. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, landing right after Warsh killed the rate cut. Hot core PCE = confirms the hawkish pivot, pressures tech. Cool = doves (and the bond market) get to fade the hike. This print is the verdict on Wednesday’s Fed.

⚙️ SpaceX index inclusion goes live. The forced-buying mechanic kicks in: Russell 1000 adds SPCX after Friday’s close (6/26), MSCI 6/29, then the big one — potential QQQ fast-entry ~July 1 (~$22–27B in forced buying, ~4% float). Catch: funds must sell AAPL/MSFT/NVDA to fund it. Watch the megacap cross-currents Friday.

🛢️ Oil = still the master variable. Ceasefire holding + crude sub-$80 caps the inflation scare. Any crack and PCE isn’t the only worry.

SPCX +40% from its $135 IPO (~$2.5T). The skeptics aren’t gone — S&P 500 inclusion’s off till 2027, low target’s $63.

Three things, in order: PCE Thursday → Russell rebalance Friday → oil underneath it all. NFA.

[Haody @JimQin12]

📅 Week Ahead (June 22–26): PCE Meets the Forced-Buying Machine
After a holiday-shortened whipsaw week that ended with the Fed killing the rate cut, next week hands the market its first real test of the new higher-for-longer regime — plus the start of SpaceX’s index-inclusion gauntlet. The calendar is light early and explosive late.
The main event: PCE — Thursday June 25
This is the one that matters. May PCE and core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — release Thursday, and are likely to show price growth remains elevated Wall Street China. The context makes it loaded: Warsh just scrapped the last projected 2026 cut and the dot plot flipped to a hike. Recent inflation readings have run hotter than expected as the Middle East conflict kept energy prices high; while the signed peace deal has pushed oil back down, the inflation impact will linger for now. Wall Street China
The asymmetry: a hot core PCE confirms the Fed’s hawkish pivot and pressures the rate-sensitive tech that just rebounded. A cooler print gives the doves (and the bond market, which already didn’t fully buy the hawkish dots) ammunition to fade the hike. Either way, this is the print that either validates or undercuts Wednesday’s FOMC message.
The other engine: SpaceX index inclusion begins
The forced-buying mechanic you’ve been tracking goes live next week. Three dates:
•FTSE Russell adds SpaceX to the Russell 1000 and Russell Top 200 effective after the close on June 26 Yahoo Finance — all iShares and Vanguard Russell funds must buy.
•MSCI adds SpaceX to its standard and large-cap indexes on June 29 CNBC.
•The big one looms just after: a potential Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) fast-entry around July 1, which analysts estimate could trigger $22–27 billion in forced buying, concentrated in a stock where only ~3–5% of shares trade freely CNBC.
The wrinkle worth flagging: this isn’t free money for the index. On rebalance days, passive funds face forced selling of existing members like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia — proportional to their weight — to fund forced buying of SpaceX, concentrated into a narrow market-on-close window and amplified by the tiny float. AOL So the Russell rebalance Friday could create mechanical cross-currents in the megacaps.
By the numbers, SpaceX has already run hard: up more than 40% from its $135 IPO, recently trading near $200 with a market cap above $2.5T CNBC. The skeptic’s flag stays planted — S&P 500 inclusion is off the table until mid-2027 at the earliest after SpaceX posted a $4.28B quarterly net loss, and the lowest analyst target sits at $63 CNBC.
The setup
Quiet Monday (no major data), building toward Thursday’s PCE and Friday’s Russell rebalance. The tension to watch: a market that just got told “no cuts, maybe a hike” now has to digest the inflation data that justifies it — while a wall of price-insensitive index buying distorts SpaceX and pressures the megacaps it’s displacing.
Three things, in order: (1) core PCE Thursday — the verdict on the Fed’s hawkish turn, (2) the Russell rebalance Friday and any megacap rotation it forces, (3) oil, still the master variable — if the Iran ceasefire holds and crude stays sub-$80, it caps the inflation scare; if it cracks, PCE stops being the only worry.
Quiet open, loud finish.

[Haody @JimQin12]

📅 Week in Review (June 15–18): Relief → Euphoria → Reality → Rebound
A four-act week, and the market whipsawed through every one. It ends higher than it started — but for completely different reasons than where it began.

Act 1 — Peace rally (Mon 6/15). Stocks ripped to records after Trump declared the Iran deal “complete.” Oil cracked (Brent -4.7%), the Dow closed at an all-time high, and the energy shock that drove CPI to a 3-yr-high 4.2% began unwinding. Risk-on everywhere.

Act 2 — SpaceX euphoria (Mon–Tue). The biggest IPO in history kept running — after its +19% debut, SPCX added ~20% more, blew past $2T, overtook Amazon, and announced a $60B deal for Cursor (Anysphere). A space company buying an AI lab. Animal spirits, fully unleashed. The Dow kept printing records (3 straight) even as tech wobbled into the Fed.

Act 3 — Fed reality (Wed 6/17). The party stopped. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% (unanimous), but Warsh’s debut dropped a hawkish bomb: the median 2026 dot jumped to 3.8% from 3.4%, 9 of 18 members now see a hike this year, 6 see two+. The last projected cut — gone. Warsh stripped the statement to ~130 words, scrapped forward guidance, withheld his own dot, and hammered “price stability.” 2yr yield +16bp. Tech led the reversal; even SpaceX had its first red day (-5%).

Act 4 — Rebound + signing (Thu 6/18). Markets shook it off on the last trading day of the week. The US and Iran signed a 14-point MOU in France (Hormuz reopening, ceasefire extended), oil slid under $80, and — crucially — Treasury yields ticked down despite the hawkish Fed, freeing small caps to lead: Russell +2.12%, Nasdaq +1.91%, S&P +1.08%, Dow +0.14%. An Intel/Apple chip-partnership headline added fuel to tech.

The throughline: every major move was macro and event-driven, not fundamental. Oil down → inflation relief → rally. Fed hawkish → rate-path repriced → selloff. Deal signed + yields ease → rebound. The “rotation not flight” read held all week — the Dow made records while tech chopped, and money kept rotating rather than fleeing.

The hangover into next week: the regime has fundamentally shifted — the cut is dead, a hike is the new base case, higher-for-longer is back. That’s a structural headwind for the long-duration tech/AI names that led the year, even if Thursday’s bounce papered over it. Two things to watch: whether the easing in yields sticks (Thursday’s tell was bonds not believing the full hawkish dot), and whether the Iran ceasefire actually holds now that it’s on paper. Oil remains the master variable feeding the inflation read.

Net: the market took a peace gift, a SpaceX spectacle, and a Fed cold shower — and still closed the holiday-shortened week green, led by the small caps that are most sensitive to the rate path it’s now nervous about. That tension is the story heading into next week.

[Haody @JimQin12]

The Fed held, but it killed the cut (6/17):

📉 S&P -1.21% (7,420), Nasdaq -1.34% (26,022), Dow -0.98% (51,493) — after the Dow printed a 3rd straight intraday record, then reversed. 2yr yield +16bp to 4.22%.

The decision was the easy part (unanimous hold). The dots were the bomb: 9 of 18 members now see a hike this year, 6 see two+. Median 2026 dot jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% — the outlook flipped from cuts to a hike. The easing cycle the market leaned on all year is over.

Warsh’s debut set the tone: a stripped-down ~130-word statement, forward guidance scrapped, no dot from him, and “price stability” hammered repeatedly. Not the dove Trump’s nominee was supposed to be.

Megacap tech led down (Meta, MSFT, AMZN). Even SpaceX broke its win streak, -5% — first red day since the IPO, despite the $60B Cursor deal.

The week’s arc: Iran relief → SpaceX euphoria → Fed reality. Energy cooling helped the doves’ case, but the committee didn’t take it.

[Haody @JimQin12]

😭

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

The wealthiest people in the world (updated)

[Haody @JimQin12]

Holding pattern ahead of the Fed (6/16):

📊 Quiet, mixed day as Warsh’s first FOMC meeting kicks off: S&P +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.02%, Dow +0.78% (another intraday record), Russell +0.72%. The Dow just won’t quit.

🛢 Oil keeps sliding — US & Iran signed an MOU locking in the ceasefire + reopening Hormuz. WTI under $80 for the first time since March. 2yr yield down to ~4.06%.

🚀 SpaceX steals the show again: announced a $60B acquisition of Anysphere (the Cursor AI startup), +8.9% premarket after a +19.6% day. ~$2T+ and shopping already.

📉 Data was ugly but ignored: housing starts -15.4%, Empire State manufacturing 5.7 vs 13.9 expected. Nobody cared — all eyes are on tomorrow.

The whole tape is coiled for one thing: Wed 2pm ET. A hold is near-locked; the move comes from Warsh’s tone + whether the dot plot survives. Relief rally’s been priced — now it needs the Fed to not spoil it.

[Haody @JimQin12]

Risk-on to start the week (6/15):

📈 Dow +469 to a RECORD 51,671 (new ATH). S&P +1.65%. Nasdaq +3.07% — best day since March. SpaceX tacked on ~20% more.

The catalyst: Trump says the Iran deal is “complete” — Strait of Hormuz reopening, blockade lifted. Oil cracked: Brent -4.7% to ~$83. Less oil = less inflation pressure = green everything.

But two reasons to keep the helmet on:
🖋️ It’s not signed yet — formal signing is Friday in Switzerland, and terms are thin. Headlines can still whip this.

🪑 FOMC Wednesday. Warsh’s first meeting. Hold is ~certain, but the tone + dot plot into 4.2% inflation is the real test.

Today was the relief trade. Wednesday will tell us if it has legs.

[Haody @JimQin12]

Week Ahead (June 15–19): Warsh’s first test 🪑

The decision is a snooze — ~97% odds the Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. Everything else is the story.

🔑 It’s Kevin Warsh’s FIRST meeting as chair. First statement, first presser, first dot plot — the market’s first read on how he talks.

🔄 The risk flipped. After 172K payrolls and 4.2% CPI (hottest since ’23), futures now price ~80% odds of a HIKE by year-end. The “when do they cut” debate is dead.

📊 Watch:
• Does Warsh kill the dot plot? He’s hinted at it.
• Retail Sales (Tue) — is the consumer still carrying this?
• Jobless claims + housing starts (Wed, pulled forward)

🛢️ Wildcard underneath it all: oil. The Iran spike is what drove CPI to 4.2% — any re-escalation feeds right back in.

The tape just rallied on relief (SpaceX + Iran de-escalation). Now it meets a Fed with every reason to sound hawkish. If Warsh confirms the hike, the bounce gets tested. If he leans dovish at 4.2% inflation — sharp relief, but the credibility questions start.

🗓️ Market is set to be closed Friday (Juneteenth). Short week, big signal.

Decision Wed 2pm ET. Presser 2:30 is the main event.

[Haody @JimQin12]

SpaceX (SPCX) — day one in the books:

🚀 Opened $150, popped 20%+, closed $161 (+19%). Market cap ~$2.1T. Largest IPO in history, and it stuck the landing.

📈 S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.31%, Dow +353 (+0.7%, 51.2K), Russell 2000 +0.79% (small caps led again)

Adding the Iran strikes being called off, and you got a clean risk-on close to a whipsaw week.

But keep the head on straight: SPCX 12-mo analyst avg target is ~$139 — below today’s close. CFRA already slapped a sell on it. The momentum leg played out exactly as expected; the supply/lockup test is still months away.

[Haody @JimQin12]

SpaceX (SPCX) opened hot — trading ~$165 vs the $135 IPO price, a +22% pop on day one. That lifts the implied market cap from ~$1.75T to ~$2.1T.

This is the momentum leg I flagged: ~4x oversubscribed, 30% retail, index-inclusion bids, and pure FOMO. $135 already looks like a bargain to anyone who got an allocation.

But keep the calendar in view. The 12-month analyst average target is actually ~$139 — below where it’s trading right now. The staggered lockup starts unlocking supply from ~day 70. Momentum now; gravity later. Enjoy the pop, respect the float.

Not financial advice.

[Haody @JimQin12]

The SpaceX insider stocks lockup schedule (from the S-1): insiders can sell up to 20% of eligible shares two trading days after the first earnings report (late July/early Aug), plus another 10% if the stock is 30%+ above $135; then 7% tranches unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days; a further 28% after Q3 earnings; and the full remainder at the 180-day mark (~December 2026). Two important nuances: Musk himself is subject to the full lockup and can’t use the early-release provisions; he and certain significant investors agreed to hold for at least 366 days, and there’s a structural buyer on the other side — Nasdaq shortened its inclusion window to 15 trading days for megacap IPOs, so SPCX could join the Nasdaq-100 around July 7, forcing index funds to buy.

[Haody @JimQin12]

SpaceX (SPCX) — my take going in before tomorrow:

Short term (first ~2-3 wks): momentum likely makes $135 look cheap. ~4x oversubscribed, 30% to retail, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion possible by ~July 7 = forced index-fund buying. FOMO + structural bids. Squeeze fuel.

But I’m skeptical past 3-6 months — and the calendar is why:

SpaceX didn’t do a single 180-day lockup. It’s staggered. Insiders can sell ~20% after Q2 earnings (late July/Aug), then 7% tranches at days 70/90/105/120/135, then +28% after Q3, with the rest free at ~180 days (Dec).

Translation: float keeps expanding right through the fall. Rising supply meets a speculative premium = gravity. I’d expect it to drift back toward fair value by ~December.

Two offsets to respect: Musk is locked up the full term (366 days for him + key insiders), and index inclusion is a real bid. Not financial advice — just how I’m reading the supply/demand clock.